Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's storms. The HRRR is developing a morning round of storms and then an afternoon round. The afternoon round will be the one to watch, but how bad it is will depend on how long the morning round hangs around and how long the atmosphere has to reload before the afternoon round kicks off. There will be very little cap tomorrow so storm mode could get very messy very quickly. That will ramp down the tornado threat leaving large hail and straight line winds as the main threat. If any kind of cap can hold storm initiation at bay until mid afternoon then storm mode would at least start out discrete and have a little more of a tornado threat. The HRRR is showing a few discrete cells from south of meridian up to east of Birmingham tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The NAM3K is showing almost no morning convection and storm mode initiating as discrete cells and staying that way longer before going linear. If that scenario plays out then expect more of a tornado threat. My thoughts is if the cap is basically nil then storms will be popping up most of the day and quickly become a huge mess and reducing the tornado threat. Reduce...not eliminate. Instability tomorrow will be extremely high with models showing 3,000-5,0000 CAPE values. Typically, you just need it 1,500 or so to get severe storms. Shear values, however, will be more meager so storm updrafts will have a harder time maintaining themselves and rotating.
The evening runs of the high res models should be in around 10 or so tonight. I'll take a look at them and update again.
