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I wouldn't bet this game because the score will likely be too high. I hate betting high scoring games because they can be very close, equal games & the favorite end up covering with a late score.
That being said, I do find it interesting that the line keeps dropping. Started at 12 and is down to 8.5 at some places.
Any chance this is a low scoring game? If so, how?
https://i.imgur.com/4OoLVjG.jpg
The only chance the game is low scoring is if we hold the ball like we did during the first half of the Georgia game the entire game, and even then it will be in the upper 20s lower 30s. Or we could revert back to our previous offensive showings and get boat raced and then Kiffin slows it down to run out the clock.
The only chance for a low scoring game is if we're able to have LONG sustained drives that keeps their offense off the field. And I'm talking 10-12 minute drives. We have to essentially take the air out of it, but instead of running the ball we'd hit them with swing and short settle routes. Take 3-4 yards at a time and convert a bunch of 3rd and shorts. Have to have 3 and outs from them or institute bend but don't break. I don't see it as a viable way to win, but it is a way. If we could hold them under 5 possessions in the 1st half and only 7-9 for the game then we probably have a shot to keep it in the low 30s which gives us a chance. We're in trouble if it gets up into the 40s of 50s
It has a chance to go under bc we are better up front on both sides
Their OL has been really goodQuote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
Our DLine is better but their Oline is better. Everything about their offense is better and everything about our defense is better. I?m going with 38-28 score OM. I just don?t see us being able to stop them through the air, but maybe Arnett will pull something together and surprise.
Good thing our OL doesn?t play against their OL then? Our OL will blow holes in their DL. Only way they get consistent pressure is if they bring more than we have to protect.Quote:
Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG
Their OL is not on the same level as UGAs. Their defense is not in the same universe
I feel like the biggest problem for UGA on offense was their OC. If they throw the ball downfield the entire game instead of ramming their head into a wall they score more than 31 on us. I feel like Kiffin is a much better playcaller and will attack our weakness much more effectively.Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
If we had all our still playing defenders Covid free and available, I'd feel ok. We don't. Their tempo is going to have our defenders dragging and gasping for air. Playing this game with 20 scholly defenders is stupid. Without wheat and Davis, we have 4 scholly LB (brule, Errol, Watson, and Jett) and a walk on in Jennings that played some vs uga.
I'm not sure why defenders don't just go to the ground when an offense starts to tempo. The rules allow for it.
My worry is that we put together 8-10 play drives to score & they respond by chucking it deep & scoring in 2 plays.Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
If anything, we've got to play a bend but don't break style & make them work their way down the field.
Ark ran a lot of drop 8 and drop 7 and corral struggles against it. As short as we are on personnel, we need to as well. Lot less chasing guys all over the field in zoneQuote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
And then he turned around and set school records against that same look against Vandy. Granted, we have better athletes than Vandy, but he has shown he can beat that look.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
The key to stopping Corral is to get him uncomfortable. Clock him a few times and he starts making stupid decisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
I keep seeing this quote thrown around. Go back and watch the videos of Tyson Brown talking to the team in January and February. He talks about being a DAWG in the 4th quarter and you hear all the coaches talking about this is what it'll feel like when you're tired in the 4th quarter. This team isn't a Joe Moorhead team. Yea, maybe they'll tire out but maybe they won't. The best way to negate tempo is cause negative plays and Arnett knows that. And Kiffin is going to be cocky enough to not use the short tempo passing game. I think the being tired thing is overblown. Our guys will be prepared to play. You know you're going to be on the field a lot anyways with Leach coaching the offense. They'll be ready.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
We were tired 4th qtr vs GA. We don't even have 20 guys that can actually play on defense.
I think this is backwards? We're short on defenders. We need to take risks. Early in the game, if they have two short offensive drives, one that results in a 3 and out and one that results in a quick TD, I think that may be better than them having two long drives even if they only get a field goal between the two drives. Obviously points are what's ultimately important, but if our defense is on the field a lot playing a bend, don't break defense, I'm not sure we will have teh warm bodies to stay competitive in the fourth quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
Now if we are moving the ball with 10-12 play drives and eating up a lot of clock, maybe that will be enough rest for the defense and shorten the game enough that it won't matter either way. But I would worry what will happen if they have a couple of long drives with a 3 and out between from us.
You do realize that's how the long ball opens up. You keep hitting teams with the run and short intermediate passes. Then you catch the safeties on their heals. Preston got beat bad on one play because he had his hips square thinking they were going to run a deep cross...... Instead it was a go and he was left with stone feet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
Emerson needs to basically stay on Moore all game as well
I don't remember vandy running drop 8 against them. Will have to go back and look on the appQuote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
Emerson will have to stay on Moore and we'll probably have to bracket a safety back over the top as well. Forbes is going to have to come to play. We need him to shut down the guy on the other side. The X factor for them is going to be Yeboah. We need to be on the lookout for him. We're probably going to have to sacrifice either Errol or Brule to cover him some. Another option is if we see them killing us in the flat with him then bait Corral into that throw and drop the DE off and either get a pick or a batted ball.Quote:
Originally Posted by defiantdog
Here is the simple breakdown: if they play prevent and jump our routes they will stop our O while their O will destroy our secondary.
If for some dumb reason they run man to man then we have a punchers chance...but they won’t. They will still win by 2+ TD’s. The line dropping is a trap. Look forward it to swing up rapidly 24 hours before the game.
How are we going to do that without our best 2 pass rushers?Quote:
Originally Posted by KOdawg1
Put some walkons in and have them jump offsides and waylay him a couple of timesQuote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
Good strategy*Quote:
Originally Posted by Leeshouldveflanked
Our D Line has been good. If our offense can burn clock and keep them fresh they can make Ole Miss one dimensional.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
Them playing prevent would be our dream. Rogers will pick them apart with 5-7 yard passes because he'll have a day and a half to throw. This will allow us to control the clock. Let's all hope they're dumb enough to do that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
They tried to at the beginning of the game some and it didn’t work. I think it may be the best strategy we have though.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Bring the damn house and hope we get there in timeQuote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
I tend to agree. Nothing over the top. Make them drive the field.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
The other train of thought is we don't have enough depth to stay on the field defending long drives all day so we better bring the house and either get sacks/turnovers or give up long TDs to get the ball back either way.
So our two schools of thought on this: Bend But Don't Break vs 3rd and Grantham. I think we probably have to mix a little of both. We have to be extremely careful blitzing a bunch because we can't leave our safeties out on an island. If I had to guess Arnett will try to disguise drops different ways with blitz looks or he'll blitz on unconventional downs.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Whatever he does, if the pass defense that we took to UGA shows up Saturday, we are toast.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
We'll definitely have to mix it up some, but I think we're going to have to be aggressive on first and second down in the first half to try to create negative plays and get off the field. If we play bend but don't break the first half, we may be too tired to execute anything effectively the second half.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
I agree. knock him down a few times and talk trash to him. You can get inside of his head and he becomes careless with the football.Quote:
Originally Posted by KOdawg1
Hey it's been done Before/Quote:
Originally Posted by Leeshouldveflanked
O ye of little faith.