No word about any layover in Atlanta.
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No word about any layover in Atlanta.
You might want to make plans for mandeville. 2 of the 3 main models have it going up Morgan City then Baton Rouge to Jackson. The other HMON has it Morgan City then Hammond then Columbia with one big ass wind field. Hopefully It keeps on going west.
Probably sitting this one out unless it slides east to make a first strike on the MS coast. I want to save my vacation days for the fall severe weather season. What I'll probably do if it takes the current path is get south of the center and see if I can luck up on a tornado Friday night and Saturday.
Man this season. When Laura hit I was supposed to head to Houston from the MS Coast with my daughter for a golf tournament that Friday morning. We had to withdraw from that one. Now we are supposed to head to Oklahoma for a tournament Thursday afternoon and might have to deal with the same driving issues trying to get over there. The season was already jacked up from Corona.
Where are you driving from?
You should be OK/ Stay off 10 because if they evacuate New Orleans it's going to be a mess from Wed onward.
Looks like this sum beach is going to affect our game Sat.
Current forecast track has the center squatting over Columbus, MS, at 8:00pm Saturday. Lexington should still be beyond the outer bands.
Was reading on FB, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting a 56% chance Delta reaches Cat 5 within 72 hours. Could someone explain what SHIPS is and how reliable is it?
Looks like a wash out in Lexington. We always traditionally play bad in rainy/windy conditions but with the air raid this definitely benefits UK
Looks like they've pushed the time frame back a good bit now.
Looks like Cancun may get a direct hit by a Cat 3 or Cat 4.
SHIPS is just one of a couple dozen tropical models. All have their good and bad days. Besides snow in MS, tropical cyclones are one of the most difficult things to forecast...especially intensity. Delta is currently undergoing rapid intensification and I would not be surprised to see it reach cat 4 status before weakening as it approaches the US. The next update is at 10:00 and I expect it to be a 3 then. Personally, I'm leery of it making it to 5, but I've been wrong before.
Delta now a 3 with 115mph winds. Several models now run it up to a 4 and a couple into 5 territory. One well into 5 territory but I'm counting on that to be an outlier.
The biggest thing to be aware of with Delta will be he surge. As it ramps up to Cat 4/5 and then weakens prior to landfall, the surge will be larger than it's landing category of say cat 2/3.
Have to see how it looks after coming off the yucatan peninsula
It just increased to a Cat 4, 130 mph. Supposely will decrease to a minor hurricane before it comes ashore on the Gulf (maybe Louisiana), but Michael was supposed to have decreased too.
Cancun and the peninsula will suffer heavy damage.
Delta was originally forecast to be a 2. Now it's bumping 5. Sally and Laura both well over achieved forecasts. Would love to know how they whiffed there badly on all of them.
Need it to head more west.
17 you 2020!
Looks like it's going to be a solid 3 when it hits but it has shifted West a hair. Hopefully more but the two damn troughs are going to make it tough to go west.
Might want to call this one the HWY 61 storm. Latest models and they are all in agreement have it Morgan City Baton Rouge then 61 all the way up.
Well the GFS, HRWF abnd HMON are basically in agreement. The HMON has been the eastern most model most of the year and they are finally in agreement with the others. But it all depends on when the Trough moves through. Also look at where it goes over the Yucatan. Yesterday it was going to hit the western half of Cuba. Now its the middle of the Yucatan. Yep Cancun gonna get hit bad. Of course Scooba is more of an expert than me and he has more informed sources. Tomorrow check all the Storm Chasers and see where they are heading, That would be a good indication.
Delta now has 140mph sustained.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/im...orm_26_ens.gif
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#26L
Baton Rouge is going to take a big pounding. If you a roofing contractor you might want to go start handing out flyers.
Official track has now shifted west. Landfall looks to be central LA coast and then sitting over Vicksburg as a tropical storm by Saturday afternoon and then tracking NE towards Tupelo. This puts most of MS south of the center and in the tornado threat as it moves inland.
Anywhere from Lake Charles to Redstick is going to get pounded due to the immense size of the windfield.