A tropical wave over the Bahamas has now been given a 70% chance to become a tropical system over the weekend. It could approach the Biloxi / NOLA area early next week as a minimal hurricane.
Printable View
A tropical wave over the Bahamas has now been given a 70% chance to become a tropical system over the weekend. It could approach the Biloxi / NOLA area early next week as a minimal hurricane.
17 you 2020!!
How minimal?
I just got home from Texas working the Hurricane, we still have Logistics sites setup in LC.
Here you go Cc24
Disturbance 44 is now located across the Bahamas. This disturbance is moving to the west at 15 mph. It is very disorganized and the environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable at best for development. The trough looks to move into Florida from today into tonight and then into the eastern Gulf on Saturday before turning to the northwest into the northeastern Gulf from Sunday into Monday. Once the disturbance gets into the eastern Gulf, the environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable. Therefore, the chance of tropical development is now 40 percent.
Here's how you find out. Take your pistol and a deck of cards.
Throw the cards in the air, shot a single card. Whatever that card is...will represent the last number of the wind speed. Now look for the next card you seeing face up.. the very next one. that's the first digit of the speed.
Then look for a Face card. Think Jack - Cat 1, and so on till Ace - Cat 4. If you get the joker card... well it is 2020 and you should just go back inside and know the world is ending.
One wind strength forecast had most of the models in the 70-85mph range, but until it actually forms and gets in the Gulf then nobody knows for sure. Working in our favor is it will have to go over FL which will do it no favors and then it won't have but s couple days over water. Working against us is that water is hot tub quality.
That forecast method seems shoddy to me. You are very likely to get conflicting results where your two digits for windspeed leave you with <100 mph winds but then pull a face card that describes a Cat 3 or Cat 4, whose lowest max wind speeds are >100mph. Just seems like an obviously bad model.**
Now a depression. Forecast is to remain a tropical storm and make landfall around Biloxi Tuesday afternoon.
LA Nina is setup to stay... Tropics aren't gonna die off for a while longer... And gonna be a warm winter.
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3457447001
Afraid you're right. Keep waiting for an El Ni?o to ramp up the spring severe weather season. La Ni?a can be a kick to the sack for that.
Guy on my chase team has read something from nhc where they were all but saying this will end up a hurricane. If it can come across FL reasonably intact I tend to agree.
Hey SVD give me a call on where you want to set up. Monday the Boat parade will be in full swing. Got the best site available to film it.
Very much depends what happens over likely next 12-24 hours. The llc is very far north of the convection and the mlc. If the mlc pulls itself down to the surface, then the storm might stay offshore and go thru the straits of Florida. If that happens a lot more likely becomes a hurricane. Will have to deal with a good bit of shear for the next 24 hours.
Will do. As of now I am planning on being down. Probably leave Monday when I get off work. Probably means I'd miss the onset of tropical form storm winds. One thing of note...with the current track that would put the entire MS coast in the right front quadrant for a prolonged time so there will be a definitive tornado risk for a long time.
SV / Scooba - The wife and I are supposed to head to Gulf Shores from east central MS on Sunday morning. We were supposed to go first week of May but then we got the Rona. This is the reschedule date.....time for the obligatory question - I know we will likely be enjoying a tropical system Sunday night through Tuesday but is it safe to go? Or maybe have a better idea tomorrow evening ?
It should be safe as it looks now. Windy and rainy but safe. The only caveat to that is stay out of the water. Rip currents and waves will be hell. We were down there a few years ago on a vacation when a tropical storm was in the area and a guy drowned. We were eating supper watching the coast guard helicopter go back and forth looking for him.
Looking at the latest radar it appears banding is starting to form around the center. Could be a sign what will become Sally is starting to try and organize. Will be making landfall south of Miami. That's potentially significant as it will primarily be crossing swampland with lots of water and very few tall buildings to act like hills to disrupt wind flow. All that to say moving across FL may do very little to weaken the storm.
Some of the models are starting to intensify what will become Sally. Yesterday, most had it as a strong tropical storm and a couple as a hurricane. Today most have it as hurricane and a couple going up to cat 2.
Storm now forecast to become a hurricane before landfall Tuesday morning.
HMRF forecasting 121KTS as it makes it's day long landfall/
Hey Scooba/SVD I just satw the 3 different models, all updated to 60 hrs out, and the main 3 were so widely different none of them backed each other. GFS has it going into Grand Isle as a TS. HMRF has it now going int Shell Beach as a 969 low. The HMON has Mobile. But the only similarity is the tracks have moved about 30 mile west and on more of a northward pattern that a meandering west one. It's screwing with SVDs planning.
Might give the condo owner a call today and see what my options are for reschedule. I don't necessarily mind the rain or wind as we just need to get away for a week. I wouldn't mind watching some rough seas from the condo, even. But I don't want to get into a spot where we are stuck in the condo with the storm shield (roll up door) over the balcony glass and we are just walled in. Or even worse with no power or in a dangerous situation.
OK rch. I'm changing after reviewing some things this morning.
I would contact your guy and ask deadlines. Models are more west this morning.. But if it gets stronger that makes it turn more north faster than drifting west. Lots to watch but it's barely went across the land today looks like.. So that means it's in better shape earlier which likely means stronger...
Where are we looking at a landfall? I?ve seen grand isle to mobile.
We now officially have Sally. Landfall is still forecast for MS/LA line.
Big difference between models intensity from earlier (i'm catching up on everything) hmon and hwrf (which has been doing pretty good closer to landfall) are looking at it bombing out in the gulf and getting closer to a cat 3 and landing from the mouth of mobile bay to gulfport / bay st louis. Should know a lot more this evening with the newest model runs... everyone on the coast needs to stay aware.
Land fall somewhere between The Bay and Buras then going North then northeast around Hattiesburg. Forecasting 80mph winds in Gulfport/Biloxi with 5-8 ft surge above ground.