How Many Games Can Leach Win Next Year with This Offense?

QB - Costello

RB - Hill

WR - Mitchell

WR - Heath

WR - Payton

WR - Tabor/Tulu

WR - Williams

LT - Cross/Eiland

LG - Parker/Smith

C - Sharp/Smith

OL - Reese/Pendley

RT - Lashley/ Dolla Bill

If the WRs can just run Leach's offense & catch the ball, there's a ton of talent on this offense. That OL may be the most talented Leach has ever coached

I love that our first 5 games aren't our toughest. Gives this team a great chance to get in a groove before playing the big boys.

If the WRs improve, which we expect to some degree due to Leach, & the defense is average, this offense can win at least 8 games.

I honestly think we can win 7 with 8 being realistic possible on how a few of our tougher conference opponents look like TAMU and Auburn.

I'm concerned about how long it will take to get the offense and Leach's ability to play to our current strengths, which is our run game with Hill.

Defensively I'm concerned about the back end giving up a lot of points. But I think we win 3 of our non conference, Arkansas and Missouri. Those are for sure. Between Kentucky, Ole Miss, and NC State I think we win at least 1 of those. Question is can we win 2 out of those 3 and sneak a win at home against Auburn or TAMU. That's what it boils down to for me. 7-5 is the likely outcome.

I think using the phrase "win at least 8" after revamping our offense as drastically as we are and basically rebuilding the entire staff is dangerous territory for unrealistic expectations.

We have to be realistic and give him a chance to get things going. Win 6 and keep the bowl streak and I'll be happy. Win more than 6 and it's gravy.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

We have to be realistic and give him a chance to get things going. Win 6 and keep the bowl streak and I'll be happy. Win more than 6 and it's gravy.

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I think we'll know more after Spring. If we click, we actually have a good bit of talent to win some games.

There are 8 very winnable games on our schedule, that should be our expectation. Even JoMo would have us back in a bowl.

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Originally Posted by viverlibre

There are 8 very winnable games on our schedule, that should be our expectation. Even JoMo would have us back in a bowl.

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JoMo would have won 4 games next year

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Originally Posted by viverlibre

Even JoMo would have us back in a bowl.

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Whew..... I don't know about this boss

There are 8 on paper that we could win. We also don't know where Auburn or A&M will be when we play them.

A&M has really high hopes for next season. If they lose some early ones, there could be a good bit of frustration

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

I think we'll know more after Spring. If we click, we actually have a good bit of talent to win some games.

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I agree but I'm worried about us defensively and we don't need to leap unrealistic expectations on Leach. There will be a learning curve for sure. Give it time and enjoy it. If we win more than 6 next year I'll be ecstatic!

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Originally Posted by BeastMan

JoMo would have won 4 games next year

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This at best. Our program was running off the rails with JoMo and was only getting worse

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Whew..... I don't know about this boss

There are 8 on paper that we could win. We also don't know where Auburn or A&M will be when we play them.

A&M has really high hopes for next season. If they lose some early ones, there could be a good bit of frustration

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aTm schedule...
ACU
North Texas
Colorado
Ark
State

They will vs 4-0 when we play them

I hope KT makes a commitment to playing WR.

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Originally Posted by HoopsDawg

I hope KT makes a commitment to playing WR.

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If nothing else, he'd be a good bubble screen guy with his running ability

8 if we get some immediate help on defense. Some guys will have to grow up fast.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

aTm schedule...
ACU
North Texas
Colorado
Ark
State

They will vs 4-0 when we play them

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And Fresno State right after us.

Ugh. We'll be there "time to step up game"

Who knows though, maybe we'll be in a groove

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Originally Posted by HoopsDawg

I hope KT makes a commitment to playing WR.

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I do too! I think he could be a good one with his size, speed and agility

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

I agree but I'm worried about us defensively and we don't need to leap unrealistic expectations on Leach. There will be a learning curve for sure. Give it time and enjoy it. If we win more than 6 next year I'll be ecstatic!

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This is it, huge questions everywhere and things need to shake out. Winning 6 is good and winning anymore is all just lagniappe.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

And Fresno State right after us.

Ugh. We'll be there "time to step up game"

Who knows though, maybe we'll be in a groove

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They also won't played anybody when they play is either. Untested. No physical DL opponent.

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Originally Posted by confucius say

They also won't played anybody when they play is either. Untested. No physical DL opponent.

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We're nobody?

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Whew..... I don't know about this boss

There are 8 on paper that we could win. We also don't know where Auburn or A&M will be when we play them.

A&M has really high hopes for next season. If they lose some early ones, there could be a good bit of frustration

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Sept. 5: at home vs. New Mexico Win
Sept. 12: on the road against North Carolina State Winnable
Sept. 19: at home versus Arkansas Win
Sept. 26: at home versus Tulane Win
Oct. 3: at home versus Texas A&M
Oct. 10: OPEN WEEK
Oct. 17: on the road against Alabama
Oct. 24 on the road against LSU
Oct. 31: at home versus Auburn
Nov. 7: at home versus Missouri Win
Nov. 14: on the road against Kentucky Winnable
Nov. 21: at home versus Alabama A&M Win
Nov. 26: on the road against Ole Miss Winnable

There are 5 for sure wins and 3 more winnable. Win 7 of those and upset one of these TAMU, AU, UAT, LSU (I think LSU is going to be pedestrian). 8 wins is our expectation.

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Originally Posted by confucius say

They also won't played anybody when they play is either. Untested. No physical DL opponent.

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We play New Mexico, nc state, ark, and Tulane before them, so doubtful we will have either.

Easily 11-1.

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

Easily 11-1.

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That you 007 lol?

7 is our ceiling

We wont be very good on D in 2020.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

That you 007 lol?

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LOL Naw ... just trying to give Gun what he's wanting to hear. Everybody's beatable and Bama better beware ****

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

LOL Naw ... just trying to give Gun what he's wanting to hear. Everybody's beatable and Bama better beware ****

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lol it was a good one!

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Originally Posted by Coach34

7 is our ceiling

We wont be very good on D in 2020.

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7 regular season wins, I'd sign up right now. I think we could be pretty good in 2021

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

And Fresno State right after us.

Ugh. We'll be there "time to step up game"

Who knows though, maybe we'll be in a groove

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Arkansas gives the AGGIES a fight every year. I would imagine they will be tested really well in that game. It always seems as a close game, and one that Arkansas goes all out to win.

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Originally Posted by viverlibre

Sept. 5: at home vs. New Mexico Win
Sept. 12: on the road against North Carolina State Winnable
Sept. 19: at home versus Arkansas Win
Sept. 26: at home versus Tulane Win
Oct. 3: at home versus Texas A&M
Oct. 10: OPEN WEEK
Oct. 17: on the road against Alabama
Oct. 24 on the road against LSU
Oct. 31: at home versus Auburn
Nov. 7: at home versus Missouri Win
Nov. 14: on the road against Kentucky Winnable
Nov. 21: at home versus Alabama A&M Win
Nov. 26: on the road against Ole Miss Winnable

There are 5 for sure wins and 3 more winnable. Win 7 of those and upset one of these TAMU, AU, UAT, LSU (I think LSU is going to be pedestrian). 8 wins is our expectation.

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I think we lose Kentucky, Bama, and LSU for sure. Kentucky will be at home and returns 16-17 starters.
NC State should be improved with all the starters they return and we play there. Toss-up
A&M likely beats us. They are better and return 17-18 starters
Mizzou returns 19 starters including 10 starters on a top 20 rated defense. New coach and new QB could be a good thing or take time. We dont know. Toss-up
Auburn's passing game will be better and the back end of their D should be good. They have trench questions and their recruiting will have to live up to the hype. Toss-up

We have alot of holes to fill on D and will be doing a 180 on offense. We were not good on D this year and lose most of our best players. Too many holes
At OM will be very exciting as we go for 3 in a row and Kiffin works to make them better.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

That you 007 lol?

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I believe he b dancin on the pack.

Calling Kentucky Unwinnable is being a complete troll. We have beaten them about 9 of the past 11 years or so. They don't recruit well. They have a coach that wins about 7 games a year. We could lose on the road. It's not a forgone conclusion.

I would take 7-5 in a heartbeat. My hope is we are a little more competitive in the losses.

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Originally Posted by Jarius

Calling Kentucky Unwinnable is being a complete troll. We have beaten them about 9 of the past 11 years or so. They don't recruit well. They have a coach that wins about 7 games a year. We could lose on the road. It's not a forgone conclusion.

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Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place and won more games than we have the last 4 years. They return 16-17 starters and will be pretty damn good in 2020. 2020 is our transition year. You guys acting like a team that has been 65% run the last 4 years and is going to suddenly transition to 65% pass with no problems are insane.

These kind of threads drive me nuts. Why even talk about this before a spring game. Some of you are already setting yourselves up for disappointment. Let this play out.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place and won more games than we have the last 4 years. They return 16-17 starters and will be pretty damn good in 2020. 2020 is our transition year. You guys acting like a team that has been 65% run the last 4 years and is going to suddenly transition to 65% pass with no problems are insane.

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Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place? How does that matter at all? We have beaten them 9 of the past 11 years. We beat them by like 3 touchdowns with a freshman quarterback this year. They have been pretty damn good once in your lifetime and that was 2 years ago. They aren't going to be pretty damn good. They are going to be the same 7-5 in the bad sec east that that they have been since Mullen started whipping their ass a decade ago.put them in the sec West the last 4 years with MSU as a crossover opponent and stoops is not their coach any more.

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Originally Posted by Jarius

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place? How does that matter at all? We have beaten them 9 of the past 11 years. We beat them by like 3 touchdowns with a freshman quarterback this year. They have been pretty damn good once in your lifetime and that was 2 years ago. They aren't going to be pretty damn good. They are going to be the same 7-5 in the bad sec east that that they have been since Mullen started whipping their ass a decade ago.

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Gotta love message boards. Kentucky went 8-5 and returns 17 starters. Signed a better recruiting class than us. But our 6-7 ass who returns only 11 starters and has no pass rush is going to go to Kentucky and win because by gosh- we have a Pirate. Hell yeah!!!!

It's impossible to base a team projection on just one side of the ball.

We still have too many unknowns. BUT given that offense I think the floor is 6 wins and the ceiling is 10. That's a lot of variability but it's because:

1. We don't know how quickly it will take our guys to adapt to Leach's offense. Personally I think we will adapt quickly. Getting Costello affects this some- the ceiling probably goes up with him.

2. Defensively I think we will be improved. We won't have to deal with Tutor Gate. The biggest question is still unofficially who our DC will be and how the JUCO's will adapt and if we add any grad transfers there.

3. Special teams will be better. This unit cost us at least one loss last year. We return good kickers and we added Ruiz to help with kickoffs. Brock is a huge upgrade over Jones.

4. S&C will be improved. This alone also cost us a game last year. I really think that we're going to be a lot better than people think because of this alone. S&C isn't just about getting stronger. It's about athleticism, injury prevention, flexibility, building speed and endurance. We really suffered with this last year big time. People like Errol Thompson are going to look like completely different players.

Actually all things considered- the fact that we were able to win six games with our culture issues, mass suspensions, and lack of S&C is a positive in that it means we have the raw talent to turn things around pretty quickly with changes. Which we obviously have made. Most teams with those issues end up like Arkansas. And that may have eventually happened with Moorhead if we allowed him to stay around long enough.

Ugh

I should've known that a win/loss thread would end up causing the same stupid debates.

I was hoping this thread would actually discuss the offensive depth chart. Whiff on my part

Our 4 year composite is higher than theirs by about 10 spots. Try again. Gotta love message boards. They play in the sec East. Comparing those 2 schedules is absolutely idiotic. We just beat them by 3 touchdowns with a guy that you could outcoach. Their quarterback who saved their mediocre coach also entered the draft. Thinking we have a good shot at beating Kentucky doesn't make me a homer.

We are going to win more than many skeptics like 34 think. Leach can beat you with his and can beat you with yours. We could not have landed a better guy and Leach knows the capabilities here and that's why he took the gig. The no bullshit genius is about to embark on a very memorable journey where his talent pool is no longer at such disadvantages he had in the past. I've never been so anxious for fall.

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Originally Posted by Jarius

Our 4 year composite is higher than theirs by about 10 spots. Try again. Gotta love message boards. They play in the sec East. Comparing those 2 schedules is absolutely idiotic. We just beat them by 3 touchdowns with a guy that you could outcoach. Their quarterback who saved their mediocre coach also entered the draft.

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They beat us by 3 TD's at their place in 2018. So you can throw that out the window. And there is very little difference in recruiting at 25th vs 35th. Anything past 15th in the country in recruiting is a guess.