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think we are gonna lose to Tennessee. I thought this would be an interesting conversation and I didn't want to high jack Scooba's thread.
Okay fellas show me your work. How?
Pruitt is the head coach and they have been hit with injuries, arrests and attrition. The only thing, and I mean the only thing, in Tennessee's favor is home field advantage. And that's not enough.
Thanks.. and I'm interested to hear that also.
I didn't predict wins/losses in that thread, but an impartial metric has it tenn 52.8%
Are those metrics revised after every game? If so that would interesting to see the shifts leading up to the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f...-130-cfb-teamsQuote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
This is usually pretty accurate and has us as an .5-1 point favorite. I think we will beat them, but most metrics have it close for whatever reason....
Mine is based more off of our unknowns than Tennessee's knowns.
- Is Tommy Stevens going to be solid? We think, but who knows
- Is Joe going to get the offense rolling or is it going to be stagnant like last year?
- How will the suspensions affect us in that game?
- Road games in tough SEC environments aren't easy. Especially with a first year QB and an unproven coach. Home field matters.
I actually think we lose to either Ark or Tenn, and I picked Tenn bc I think Pruitt > Morris
Maybe I'm wrong and we win both...I hope so, and could definitely see it happening. But I think too many of our fans are acting like we know what we're going to get when our QB and our coach are complete question marks going into this season. We THINK we know, but until we see it, how are we so far ahead of Tennessee? Again, I hope we are, and think we can be....but I also was alive during last season, so to act like a road SEC win is a given is not something I'm going to do until Joe shows me consistency and less stubbornness.
But that's just me
Yes, every gameQuote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
We have the offense to win, but I'm worried about or defense a little, mainly late in games. For us to win, we have to want to win worse than the other team.
I can understand that.. and would agree more likely to lose to UT instead of god awful Arkansas. But I don't see us falling that far. If we lose more than 3 (Bama, 2 of 3 LSU, AU, TX AM)... it would be us losing those 4 i think.Quote:
Originally Posted by CadaverDawg
Either way.. will give some interesting things for us to talk about mid season.
I will be disappointed if we lose to Ark. I don't see how Ark can fix that defense in one year. It isn't like they have a lot of high level talent and the DC shit the bed like Sirmon. It should take them a couple of years to get a top 25 type defense at least.Quote:
Originally Posted by CadaverDawg
They have talent and its on the road. Its not that complicated
Should note, it's a metric that over values all sec teams consistently and thinks SEC Home game is worth more than it really is. For instance that metric gives MSU a 22.2% to beat Alabama this year. 22.2% chance to beat Alabama and only 47.8% chance to beat Tennessee don't mesh imo. There's a greater divide in those two teams that the difference in home field doesn't cover.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
There are two arguments I can make that I don't really agree with but that I think are at least reasonable.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
One argument is that Pruitt walked into a complete shit show while Moorhead walked into a great situation. If you believe Pruitt is a good coach, they are probably about to make a big jump with him in his second year, whereas it's less clear that State is even going to maintain compared to last year.
Looking at common opponents last year:
- we both beat Auburn, but they beat them at Auburn.
- They beat UK solidly, we got killed. We lost to UF in a competitive game, but were shutdown.
- They lost to UF in a non-competitive game, but at least scored three touchdowns.
- We both lost to Bama in non-competitive games, but they at least scored.
The only strong argument I have against this is that they got smoked by a weak Vandy team in the last game of the season, so it's not like they showed steady improvement.
A second similar argument is that UT has been recruiting at or above our level for the past four years. They haven't sucked because the recruiting rankings were wrong, but because they had culture and coaching issues that screwed them up, and even if Pruitt is just a so-so head coach and you are a believer in Moorhead, Pruitt has had a season now to address the culture problems and they should play up to their talent level now, and between that and getting us at home, that makes them the favorite.
For myself, I think that UT doesn't just have culture issues and that we should be favorites, with our only risk being that we will be on the road. But when I look at common opponents last year, it give me pause.
Home field advantage generally swings a line 3 pts either way. So with all of our unknowns at the moment I think us a 1 pt favorite is probably pretty accurate.
On the road, yes. Talent, they're missing some pieces. And, probably most important, their head coach is a retard.Quote:
Originally Posted by chef dixon
Which is why I don?t understand why our fans, largely, are not giving us a chance against LSU.Quote:
Originally Posted by chef dixon
Because some people use whatever metric they need to fit their narrative that week.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Another potential argument in Tennessee's favor is returning production. As of earlier this spring, they have the second-most returning production in the country. I know they've lost a bunch of back-up offensive linemen and then there's the LB who was arrested on a misdemeanor domestic assault charges recently. But unless those losses (or others I haven't heard about) result in a huge dip, they still return over 80% of their production from last year. Why does that matter? From the returning-production article I linked above:
(Woo hoo to being an exception that proved the rule last year, y'all!)Quote:
Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production based on these calculations; 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points.
Last year's top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved.
So based on that, there's a very good chance that Tennessee improves this season and a decent chance that they improve substantially. Unless I'm misunderstanding Bill C.'s math, the eight teams last year outside of the two MSUs that returned 80% or more averaged over three more wins each compared to the prior year. That's pretty impressive.
All that said, UT finished last year with a thud and are breaking in new coordinators.
Oh, and I dislike their team immensely. So there's that, too.
Man, I hope we win that game . . . .
depends on the day. Depends on the mentality of your players as well. Do they have the killer instinct and can they ratchet it up in a hostile environment?Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Another impartial metric (the one that there entire sports universe uses) will have us favored to win the game on the road.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Quote:
Originally Posted by chef dixon
Can you point out all of the talent? I haven’t seen much when they play.
Also, Shoop wants this game bad. He will have that D playing with its hair on fire.
You answered your own question; it's a HOME game for UT.
Considering they haven't played yet this year I can't. I'll defer the eye for talent to you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
Then how do you know they have talent? It certainly isn’t based on anything they did last year or the awful offseason they have had losing players.Quote:
Originally Posted by chef dixon
Before the turmoil that has unfolded I would've picked us to beat Tennessee. We had a whole lot of question marks coming into this season, and now we have a whole lot more. I don't expect Tennessee to be great, but not bad either. On the flip side, it's pretty hard for me to think much of us at this point. We won 8 games last season. After everything we lost, it's hard to imagine us being better. Throw in all the suspensions and news, who knows how much it will affect us, but it will affect us and it will be negative. Given that addition, 8 wins seems like a bit of a stretch to me. I went with 7 wins which means a loss to Tennessee is likely, but I'm really feeling like we're more of 6.5 win team at the moment.
Believe it or not the defense was actually better last year than it was in 2017...but the offense and special teams put them in terrible spots game after game with turnovers and horrible field position. I think most of the team kinda gave up in the last two games. Players getting suspended, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
The entire DL will be seniors as will the MLB so if they still suck it won't be for lack of experience.
I said I can't point it out. You're right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
They've recruited better than us overall. We are losing a big handful of players this offseason as well incase you have not noticed. If you want to base it on last year, we can't disregard the fact we lost 3 first round picks of talent too. This concept that we could lose to TN is not complicated.
Sleepy, have you tried anti-depressants? They're awesome!Quote:
Originally Posted by sleepy dawg
I'm telling ya, if we have a legit deep threat w/ Tommy and the WRs we will be tough to beat outside of elite defenses. And even then we'll score some points and maybe have a shot in 4th quarter.
Just out of curiosity who's your DC? And are you guys expecting Morris to make a jump with the offense this season?Quote:
Originally Posted by WPS
They have not recruited better than we have. That is pretty apparent when you see the players on the field for the past few years. They have had better recruiting rankings than us, which do not account for attrition and the fact that the rankings where our 2 programs are usually located are extremely subjective and not nearly as correct as the rankings where the elite teams are located. If we lose to Tennessee it will be considered an upset. They are not better than us at a single spot on the field outside wide receiver unless they have some players make significant strides. Maybe at DT and qb as well, but that is tbd and not based on anything their returning players have done. More of how unknown our players are at those positions.Quote:
Originally Posted by chef dixon
John Chavis. Greg Brooks is actually starting at nickel immediately, FWIW.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
All 11 offensive starters are different than what they were at the start of last year, which I don't think has ever happened here before. Having a guy like Hicks who knows the offense and Starkel who has more talent than either of our QBs last year should help. Of our QBs last year, Ty Storey is a backup at Western Kentucky and Cole Kelley is a backup at Southeastern Louisiana lol. Rakeem Boyd played all year with a torn rotator cuff last year and now he's healthy. And we signed a great WR recruiting class which should infuse some talent there but they are freshmen so can't set the expectations too high. It all comes down to the OL which was probably the worst in the conference the last two years and they may be better but only marginally. The offense should be better overall just from being in the system for another year now but it still won't be great and I think most would be satisfied with 5 or 6 wins as acceptable improvement. Morris is infatuated with KJ Jefferson so I'm sure we'll try to get his four games in too.
IF IF IF IF... I figure Tommy will be pretty good, not great. As far as the wide receivers, who the hell knows. Everyone thinks we'll be so much better, but we have no idea. Until they prove it in a game we don't know. On top of that, how many of our WRs will be suspended for 12 games? It's all a big question mark. Chemistry on offense is huge and right now, it seems to me that we won't have it more than we will.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
Oh hell, I forgot you guys got Cheese!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by WPS
Man, as long as Hunter Henry no longer has any eligibility we good!
I hate 2018 gave half his board battered wife syndrome.Quote:
Originally Posted by sleepy dawg
Funny how they'll use metrics in one argument and Vegas in others... whatever fits their negative narrative.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
I picked us to win but really have TN and LSU as toss ups. Both out recruit us. Tennessee's OL is very talented. I think those 2 games will determine how good Stevens is. We have our holes too but if he can overcome our deficiencies and get those wins it would say a lot about him.
Nice subtle jab there. He wouldn't be starting for us... FWIW. Maybe he can counter the 52-6 butt stomping y'all incurred last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by WPS
I find it more interesting that we have numerous people that think Stevens is throwing for 3600 yards in the reg season. Mcsorely's best season was 3615 and that was w a bowl. 3600 is a lot of faith. A whole lot.
LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by Turfdawg67