Moor-Wool

I'm not sure if black helicopters would attack me if I copy & pasted this article from Bruce Feldman on the Athletic this morning, but it is exciting. Here is an exert that basically gives insight to the rest of the article.

https://theathletic.com/482309/2018/...l&redirected=1

https://i.imgur.com/A04YXqM.jpg

I think it's fairly clear from the twitter videos that Fitz is throwing the ball with more touch & feel this year than he has in year's past.

Here are some examples:

https://twitter.com/brianhadad/statu...58815014109184

https://twitter.com/tbhorka/status/1031559686984802304

I'll add this: if Fitz pulls off anything close to a 70% completion % this year, he'll probably be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft.

HOLY SHIT!!!

https://thehknhaven.files.wordpress....inting-gif.gif

Damnit... Our secondary sucks a$$

NY Heisman invite. Book it.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

I'll add this: if Fitz pulls off anything close to a 70% completion % this year, he'll probably be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft.

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I don't look for Fitz to jump that much. If I had to guess I would say 62-65%, which is very respectable. If he does push 70%, I'd love that, but don't think he would be a top 5 pick. 1st round maybe. If we don't compete for the West, it won't be because of Fitz, IMO.

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Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg

Damnit... Our secondary sucks a$$

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That's what I was thinking. **

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Originally Posted by tireddawg

I don't look for Fitz to jump that much. If I had to guess I would say 62-65%, which is very respectable. If he does push 70%, I'd love that, but don't think he would be a top 5 pick. 1st round maybe. If we don't compete for the West, it won't be because of Fitz, IMO.

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Agree to disagree. Fritz's tool set is tremendous and QBs are always overdrafted.

Think what is percentage would be if he didn't have to compensate for poor WR technique. ***

If Fitz goes this season with a 65% + rate that puts a damper on the legend of Dan Mullen the QB Whisperer.

From what I've been told by grapevine types JoMo and Breiner told Fitz to forget a few things Dan had taught him.

Naw, its because our DL is bad and can't put any pressure on the QB*******

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Originally Posted by tireddawg

I don't look for Fitz to jump that much. If I had to guess I would say 62-65%, which is very respectable. If he does push 70%, I'd love that, but don't think he would be a top 5 pick. 1st round maybe. If we don't compete for the West, it won't be because of Fitz, IMO.

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This may be way off since drops aren't a recorded stat, but I'll guesstimate we averaged about three drops per game last year, and in my wooliness I'd like to think it'll be closer to one this year with our improved WR corps. If Fitz had had the benefit of that improvement last year, he would have completed 63.9% of his passes ([159+24 not dropped]/286) without any improvement throwing the ball. Granted, one could argue a good many of the drops could have come from the fact that he hasn't thrown the most catchable ball in games to this point in his career. But between the WR upgrades and Fitz' apparent improvement, I think many signs point to him going north of 65% in Moorhead's offense being very possible.

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Originally Posted by thf24

This may be way off since drops aren't a recorded stat, but I'll guesstimate we averaged about three drops per game last year, and in my wooliness I'd like to think it'll be closer to one this year with our improved WR corps. If Fitz had had the benefit of that improvement last year, he would have completed 63.9% of his passes ([159+24 not dropped]/286) without any improvement throwing the ball. Granted, one could argue a good many of the drops could have come from the fact that he hasn't thrown the most catchable ball in games to this point in his career. But between the WR upgrades and Fitz' apparent improvement, I think many signs point to him going north of 65% in Moorhead's offense being very possible.

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I've had this thought for a while too. Improve our hands last year to average and at least 1/20 passes more are caught. That's 5%, which puts him at 59%. That's a respectable number by itself, add in the lack of size and separation and injuries to our top WRs last year and it's easily the equivalent of 65% with say, Auburns WRs

Not to say he can't improve- he used too much arm on deep balls, and didn't put enough touch on the ball. He also threw too many picks. But his accuracy overall is far from terrible when you look at what he was dealing with last year

Fitz will have to win the Heisman to be a top 5 overall pick. His injury vs Ole Miss alone will keep him out of being drafted that high even if he proves to everyone time and again he's completely healed from it. Injuries like that don't ever get forgotten about when GM's have their own job on the line making a top 5 draft pick.

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Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us

I've had this thought for a while too. Improve our hands last year to average and at least 1/20 passes more are caught. That's 5%, which puts him at 59%. That's a respectable number by itself, add in the lack of size and separation and injuries to our top WRs last year and it's easily the equivalent of 65% with say, Auburns WRs

Not to say he can't improve- he used too much arm on deep balls, and didn't put enough touch on the ball. He also threw too many picks. But his accuracy overall is far from terrible when you look at what he was dealing with last year

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It may come down to whether or not he starts throwing off his back foot again when the bullets start flying & he knows he can get hit

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

His injury vs Ole Miss alone will keep him out of being drafted that high even if he proves to everyone time and again he's completely healed from it. Injuries like that don't ever get forgotten about when GM's have their own job on the line making a top 5 draft pick.

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GMs won't care about his injury if he shows he is 100%.

The injuries that GMs care about:

1. Shoulder problems
2. Diseases
3. Concussions.

They couldn't care less about a fully healed QB coming off a leg injury that is playing at 100%

I would not be surprised at all by a 10+ percent jump on completions.

The old offense was designed to run first. It was not designed to enable precise timing-based passing windows. The new offense is designed to do that. That being said, the running game was very well designed which enabled bigger passing windows. I felt we did not even fully take advantage of those, especially vertically. We sometimes got 8-9 defenders into the box and then ran or passed right into them.

As quickly as Dak adjusted to the NFL it is hard to deny he was under-utilized in the passing game at the college level. Kind of scary to think Mullen’s offense may have even more upside if he could figure out how to expand the passing game. The jury is out on whether he ever achieves that - he may be too risk averse.

The new offense is converse in a way, the vertical passing game will need to work to open up the run and short passing.

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Originally Posted by TrapGame

If Fitz goes this season with a 65% + rate that puts a damper on the legend of Dan Mullen the QB Whisperer.

From what I've been told by grapevine types JoMo and Breiner told Fitz to forget a few things Dan had taught him.

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You mean things like "Chicks dig the check down "??

Remember this thread during the draft.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

It may come down to whether or not he starts throwing off his back foot again when the bullets start flying & he knows he can get hit

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It's not that bad, his problem is he hasn't been a QB all that long and actually Dan may develop QB's but I wonder how much he really knows about mechanics. Joe knows as he played the position and I bet fundamentally Fitz is much improved because of a real QB Coach.

If one has never played QB it's pretty easy to say what's wrong, not saying you don't know but it's a position that takes time to really understand know what is going on. Many QB's who are big and strong can throw off there back foot, many get in trouble also.

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Originally Posted by basedog

It's not that bad, his problem is he hasn't been a QB all that long and actually Dan may develop QB's but I wonder how much he really knows about mechanics. Joe knows as he played the position and I bet fundamentally Fitz is much improved because of a real QB Coach.

If one has never played QB it's pretty easy to say what's wrong, not saying you don't know but it's a position that takes time to really understand know what is going on. Many QB's who are big and strong can throw off there back foot, many get in trouble also.

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I think Brian Johnson was a very good QB coach - and if he had stayed we could have seen more advancement from Fitz last year.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

You mean things like "Chicks dig the check down "??

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I'm sure that was the first to go.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

I think Brian Johnson was a very good QB coach - and if he had stayed we could have seen more advancement from Fitz last year.

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Probably, QB coaches are very important.

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Originally Posted by basedog

It's not that bad, his problem is he hasn't been a QB all that long and actually Dan may develop QB's but I wonder how much he really knows about mechanics. Joe knows as he played the position and I bet fundamentally Fitz is much improved because of a real QB Coach.

If one has never played QB it's pretty easy to say what's wrong, not saying you don't know but it's a position that takes time to really understand know what is going on. Many QB's who are big and strong can throw off there back foot, many get in trouble also.

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I've started to wonder lately if Dan isn't so much a great developer of QB's in general as he is a great developer of QB's within his system. The only QB he took from truly raw to an elite level as a passer is Dak, and you have to wonder how much of that was him and how much was Dak's inhuman work ethic.

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Originally Posted by thf24

I've started to wonder lately if Dan isn't so much a great developer of QB's in general as he is a great developer of QB's within his system. The only QB he took from truly raw to an elite level as a passer is Dak, and you have to wonder how much of that was him and how much was Dak's inhuman work ethic.

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I think Dak and Fitz have shown the work ethic. But, on the development side how much was Dan and how much was Brian Johnson? Johnson was here 2014-2016 which corresponded with Dak's big leap - and Fitz's leap enough to separate himself from Staley and Tiano and eventually pass Williams. A guy who had thrown about 100 passes in competitive HS game situations work himself ahead of 3 other more experienced players.

I think the Dan as a magic QB man is something of a myth. He was blessed with 4 quys (Johnson, Tebow, Dak, Fitz) who fit what he wanted in his offense. But if he was so great, how did Tyler Russell - a Parade All-American in HS - not become a top shelf college QB? He was far more accomplished coming in as a QB than Dak or Fitz - and I don't think he didn't have the work ethic. But, it was obvious to anyone watching Dan had no clue how to use him.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Agree to disagree. Fritz's tool set is tremendous and QBs are always overdrafted.

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Case in point....in this year's draft, Josh Allen had the measurables but not the polish the others had ...but as we are seeing in the preseason, Allen is out performing all of the other 4 first round picks.... Fitz is an inch taller, 10 pounds heavier, faster and has just as strong of an arm...he will get drafted on measurables alone...but a good season and especially a win at Alabama and he will be a very high draft pick.

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Originally Posted by thf24

I've started to wonder lately if Dan isn't so much a great developer of QB's in general as he is a great developer of QB's within his system. The only QB he took from truly raw to an elite level as a passer is Dak, and you have to wonder how much of that was him and how much was Dak's inhuman work ethic.

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Dan was blessed and has been blessed with great or very good athletic QB's. He does a great job of getting them to understand his offense and they don't turn the ball over much in his offenses in general. QB's need lots of attention with mechanics, again training is essential in developing in passing techniques.

Fitz has the tolls to become a really good passer, he is pretty good now and he has some help on the outside I think and we should see a much better passing % from him as well as our other young QB.


Joe is a QB guy, I hope and I think we will see some really good things in QB play. Btw, having an experience offensive line is a huge plus!

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Originally Posted by tireddawg

I don't look for Fitz to jump that much. If I had to guess I would say 62-65%, which is very respectable. If he does push 70%, I'd love that, but don't think he would be a top 5 pick. 1st round maybe. If we don't compete for the West, it won't be because of Fitz, IMO.

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65 % is more than respectable.. it's great. If Fitz throws 65 percent we will win the SEC. My goal is 60 percent. If he does that I don't see us losing more than once.

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Originally Posted by basedog

Dan was blessed and has been blessed with great or very good athletic QB's. He does a great job of getting them to understand his offense and they don't turn the ball over much in his offenses in general. QB's need lots of attention with mechanics, again training is essential in developing in passing techniques.

Fitz has the tolls to become a really good passer, he is pretty good now and he has some help on the outside I think and we should see a much better passing % from him as well as our other young QB.


Joe is a QB guy, I hope and I think we will see some really good things in QB play. Btw, having an experience offensive line is a huge plus!

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As far as being a NFL prospect I think Nick's skill set is absolutely off the charts. All he has to do now is show polish and I think he will make a huge jump for us.

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Originally Posted by preachermatt83

65 % is more than respectable.. it's great. If Fitz throws 65 percent we will win the SEC. My goal is 60 percent. If he does that I don't see us losing more than once.

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I think 65% is doable in a West Coast Passing system because of the higher percentage of short and intermediate throws. We're going to use our backs and TE's more as receivers than Dan did last year. That's more options to throw to. Think about the 2016 Egg Bowl when Nick hit Ross on a mesh route on 4th down and we converted and got a TD out of it. That's a lot more of the types of things that we are going to see.

Also, I would think the over reliance of QB runs probably affected Nick somewhat as well in the passing game too.

I expect Fitz to completion % to be around 58-62%. That will be plenty good enough with the big plays we'll get in this offense. Check McSorley stat line in 2016 & then add Fitz is a better runner. Fitz will have a great year.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

As far as being a NFL prospect I think Nick's skill set is absolutely off the charts. All he has to do now is show polish and I think he will make a huge jump for us.

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I agree, not sure how high or low in will go in draft but I think he has a high ceiling. One thing that will make him better this year is he has some experience up front and we are loaded at running back position.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

I expect Fitz to completion % to be around 58-62%. That will be plenty good enough with the big plays we'll get in this offense. Check McSorley stat line in 2016 & then add Fitz is a better runner. Fitz will have a great year.

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Exactly

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Originally Posted by TrapGame

From what I've been told by grapevine types JoMo and Breiner told Fitz to forget a few things Dan had taught him.

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"Chicks dig checkdowns"

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Originally Posted by Walkerhill

I would not be surprised at all by a 10+ percent jump on completions.

The old offense was designed to run first. It was not designed to enable precise timing-based passing windows. The new offense is designed to do that. That being said, the running game was very well designed which enabled bigger passing windows. I felt we did not even fully take advantage of those, especially vertically. We sometimes got 8-9 defenders into the box and then ran or passed right into them.

As quickly as Dak adjusted to the NFL it is hard to deny he was under-utilized in the passing game at the college level. Kind of scary to think Mullen?s offense may have even more upside if he could figure out how to expand the passing game. The jury is out on whether he ever achieves that - he may be too risk averse.

The new offense is converse in a way, the vertical passing game will need to work to open up the run and short passing.

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All we did in 15 was try and throw the football. If anything our run game was our Achilles heel that season due to poor RB play against quality teams. You could see a clear jump from Dak's jr year to his sr. year as far as his passing was concerned. He made huge strides going into 15.