Wlll J T Ginn be a dawg? Here are the stats

An earlier post on ED asked the question: How many first rounders end up playing college ball?

Here are the stats, of course, it definitely doesn't favor the maroon & white

MLB spring drafts - 1st round only

Years: 2009 - 2017

Total Players drafted: 295

Players unsigned: 11

Players unsigned status: 4 were in college
7 were in high school

Some noted winners/losers:

Win - Phil Bickford drafted 1st round 2013 by Jays, did not sign, played college ball at CS Fullerton, drafted 1st round 2015 by Giants for $2.3M bonus

Loss - Matt Purke drafted 1st round 2009 by Rangers (reportedly for a $4M bonus), did not sign, was a star player at TCU, drafted 3rd round by the Nationals and signed in 2011. Early Injury issues.

Based on the stats, the college experience definitely seem to take a back seat to dollars in hand. You be the judge.

And just to mention, slot value goes down by pick, not by round, so Ginn has the absolute lowest slot value you can have and still be in the first round. Not that either is likely but he is certainly more likely to go to college as the 30th pick than he would be if he was a top 10 pick.

So in your sample, 11/295 (.037). Yeah, that doesn't look good for us.

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Originally Posted by TaleofTwoDogs

An earlier post on ED asked the question: How many first rounders end up playing college ball?

Here are the stats, of course, it definitely doesn't favor the maroon & white

MLB spring drafts - 1st round only

Years: 2009 - 2017

Total Players drafted: 295

Players unsigned: 11

Players unsigned status: 4 were in college
7 were in high school

Some noted winners/losers:

Win - Phil Bickford drafted 1st round 2013 by Jays, did not sign, played college ball at CS Fullerton, drafted 1st round 2015 by Giants for $2.3M bonus

Loss - Matt Purke drafted 1st round 2009 by Rangers (reportedly for a $4M bonus), did not sign, was a star player at TCU, drafted 3rd round by the Nationals and signed in 2011. Early Injury issues.

Based on the stats, the college experience definitely seem to take a back seat to dollars in hand. You be the judge.

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Yeah I asked that question earlier. I didn't think the odds would be good. Hopefully they stick to their guns on how much money they want and the Dodgers can't come through.

I also wish we could land a top notch pitching coach before July 6. I know that's probably unreasonable and Lemonis hinted he was in no hurry. It may not be a factor in Ginn's decision(may be all about slot money), but it couldn't hurt either.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

So in your sample, 11/295 (.037). Yeah, that doesn't look good for us.

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Not looking good was a no brainer. Most clubs do their homework and don't draft guys in the first round that they believe they will struggle to sign. That is one of the reasons I was actually a little surprised to see Ginn go as high as he did because he is a guy that would definitely prefer to go the college route if possible.

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Originally Posted by maroonmania

Not looking good was a no brainer. Most clubs do their homework and don't draft guys in the first round that they believe they will struggle to sign. That is one of the reasons I was actually a little surprised to see Ginn go as high as he did because he is a guy that would definitely prefer to go the college route if possible.

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And the organization that drafted him is among the most well run in baseball. They have a very strong analytic backbone. I just have a hard time seeing the Dodgers frick up a 1st round pick. If it were the royals or orioles, I'd like our chances much better

If we were lucky enough to land him, and I know it's a long shot, but would he bat if he started on the mound? What would be his day to day batting duties?

Take the money. School will always be there. Making millions in 1 check may never come again in his lifetime. Be smart with the money and he's set for life at 18 years old.

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Originally Posted by Rustydawg

Take the money. School will always be there. Making millions in 1 check may never come again in his lifetime. Be smart with the money and he's set for life at 18 years old.

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Totally Set? You sure there may not be other things going on in his head?

As stated earlier, Ginn's amount is $3.1M anything less than that and he will be coming to Starkville. He wants to be in Starkville and playing for the Dawgs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karsten_Whitson

Kartsen Whitson was drafted with the #9 overall pick in the 2010 draft, but went to Florida instead.

He was drafted in the 11th round in 2014 and never made it higher than single A.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karsten_Whitson

Kartsen Whitson was drafted with the #9 overall pick in the 2010 draft, but went to Florida instead.

He was drafted in the 11th round in 2014 and never made it higher than single A.

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Yikes.

I would love for Ginn to come to state, but no way I'd let my son pass up a life time security blanket.

It would be interesting to know of the 1st rounders who didn't sign how many got significantly more money. Seems passing up signing while a 1st rounder is pretty much all risk

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Originally Posted by Rustydawg

Take the money. School will always be there. Making millions in 1 check may never come again in his lifetime. Be smart with the money and he's set for life at 18 years old.

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Nice 5th post, not sure what your agenda is. And sure, taking the money is pretty obvious unless your family is already very well off. BUT, minor league life sucks and while school is always available, living the college life as an 18-22 year old will not be. You can go back to school but socially it won't ever be the same again plus you get to play for a school you love in the SEC with a chance to go to Omaha. No, I wouldn't blame him a second for grabbing the money, but as long as he can insure himself there is nothing wrong with putting off pro ball for a few years if he wants to go that route.

Well as someone posted on here earlier, I believe you don't get the bonus money until you complete your contract. That he got to be a deterrent for some.

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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

Well as someone posted on here earlier, I believe you don't get the bonus money until you complete your contract. That he got to be a deterrent for some.

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I don't think so. Pretty that money is upfront or split into 2 payments over 2 years.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Yikes.

I would love for Ginn to come to state, but no way I'd let my son pass up a life time security blanket.

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There a far more important things in life than money.

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Originally Posted by preachermatt83

There a far more important things in life than money.

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You want this kid at state for your benefit... we all do. Don't pretend you have this kid's best interest in mind. I'm not saying coming to school isn't the best thing for the kid. We're extremely biased here though

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Originally Posted by msstate7

You want this kid at state for your benefit... we all do. Don't pretend you have this kid's best interest in mind. I'm not saying coming to school isn't the best thing for the kid. We're extremely biased here though

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Its a tough deal, either pass on a couple of million dollars which you MIGHT not see again or essentially sacrifice your college years (which many consider the best of their lives) to live life in the minor leagues for a while. Glad I never had to make that choice.

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Originally Posted by maroonmania

Nice 5th post, not sure what your agenda is.

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Just participating in the discussion. Everyone has to make decisions based on their own personal goals & needs. Just saying the likelihood of a multi million $ lump sum windfall is rare. Maybe he doesn?t care about the current money potential and prefers a good social life the next couple of years. We?ll have to see how it plays out. Oh, yeah, f yourself.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karsten_Whitson

Kartsen Whitson was drafted with the #9 overall pick in the 2010 draft, but went to Florida instead.

He was drafted in the 11th round in 2014 and never made it higher than single A.

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Unfortunately, Whitson never fully recovered from major shoulder surgery after his sophomore year. His draft stock dropped because of it.
If I were Ginn, I would try to speak with guys like Bickford and Whitson and other guys who decided not to signed to get their insight about not signing. Life experiences are the best teacher.

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Originally Posted by Rustydawg

Take the money. School will always be there. Making millions in 1 check may never come again in his lifetime. Be smart with the money and he's set for life at 18 years old.

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2.8 million before taxes is a good start. But it doesn't make you set for a lifetime.

Didn't a London insurance firm write policies for stuff like this? I thought I remembered some past players taking out a policy where, if they go hurt they would collect a substantial amount of money.

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Originally Posted by West Tn Dawg

Didn't a London insurance firm write policies for stuff like this? I thought I remembered some past players taking out a policy where, if they go hurt they would collect a substantial amount of money.

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Yes. I think you are thinking about Lloyd's of London. I'm sure there are some other companies that have policies for this as well.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Yikes.

I would love for Ginn to come to state, but no way I'd let my son pass up a life time security blanket.

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Yeah he tore up his shoulder i think.

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Originally Posted by Rustydawg

Take the money. School will always be there. Making millions in 1 check may never come again in his lifetime. Be smart with the money and he's set for life at 18 years old.

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I mean, no one would argue $3.1M isn't a nice chunk of change, but after taxes and some upfront purchases like a house, parents a house, car, etc., there is no way that sets you up for life. Maybe he doesn't need a car or his parents already have a nice house, but still there's going to be those upfront purchases. It gives you an upper hand, but you can't expect to just invest that and live on it for the rest of your life unless you take a huge risk and get really lucky.

Dodgers just signed the #1 international prospect. Some catcher from Venezuela.

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Originally Posted by dawgs

I mean, no one would argue $3.1M isn't a nice chunk of change, but after taxes and some upfront purchases like a house, parents a house, car, etc., there is no way that sets you up for life. Maybe he doesn't need a car or his parents already have a nice house, but still there's going to be those upfront purchases. It gives you an upper hand, but you can't expect to just invest that and live on it for the rest of your life unless you take a huge risk and get really lucky.

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If you are talking about $3.1M in one year, you are looking at somewhere between $1.7M and $1.86M after taxes, which nets you $51k to $55,800 per year at a 3% withdrawal rate, which would allow you to increase that with inflation and historically would never run out of money, and usually would end up growing your money considerably.

That's not living some incredible lifestyle, but it is a low to mid middle class lifestyle while never having to worry about money, which I would say is set for life.

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Originally Posted by Johnson85

If you are talking about $3.1M in one year, you are looking at somewhere between $1.7M and $1.86M after taxes, which nets you $51k to $55,800 per year at a 3% withdrawal rate, which would allow you to increase that with inflation and historically would never run out of money, and usually would end up growing your money considerably.

That's not living some incredible lifestyle, but it is a low to mid middle class lifestyle while never having to worry about money, which I would say is set for life.

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And a college education paid for after baseball.

I think all of the positive MSU talk is just a negotiating tactic. His family would have to be pretty well off to let him turn down that kind of money.

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Originally Posted by Johnson85

If you are talking about $3.1M in one year, you are looking at somewhere between $1.7M and $1.86M after taxes, which nets you $51k to $55,800 per year at a 3% withdrawal rate, which would allow you to increase that with inflation and historically would never run out of money, and usually would end up growing your money considerably.

That's not living some incredible lifestyle, but it is a low to mid middle class lifestyle while never having to worry about money, which I would say is set for life.

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No one handed $1.7M-$1.86M is going to live like someone making $50K per year, at not for the first year or 2. A nice house, a new car, some fun vacations, and suddenly you have eaten away significantly at that nest egg before it even gets invested.

I said it's a nice chunk of change, it's just not the kinda change that's going to take him from rags to riches. A lot of us could be set for life if we didn't care about enjoying things that cost money. But the reality is that even responsible spenders are going to put a significantly less amount than the full $1.7M-$1.86M into investments. Then we get into the taxes on the $51-55K you pull out each year, maybe in rural MS that's a decent living, but in many areas of the country, it's closer to poverty level than comfortable middle class.

Anyone remember the Presley guy who signed years ago out of high school. Got hurt the first couple years and never realized his amazing potential. I’m sure his life is awesome but for some reason if he was my child I’d love for my son to bypass the signing and go to college, especially an in state school. The reason being that if an injury happens in college he is the guy who bypassed the quick route because of his love of college and school. Not only is their insurance for injury but also a new family that will look out for him. Injured in the minors and things are tougher.
Look I’m old,54 but I hope I never forget what it’s like to be 18. If he was my son, yes I have a 17 year old, I say trust you, believe in you and do what makes you happy because I know you won’t fail!!

jeff ellis
@jeffMLBdraft
Two separate sources today mentioned an injury issue with Carter Stewart that has hung up the signing process
11:19 PM - Jul 2, 2018

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Originally Posted by Dawgcap

Anyone remember the Presley guy who signed years ago out of high school. Got hurt the first couple years and never realized his amazing potential. I’m sure his life is awesome but for some reason if he was my child I’d love for my son to bypass the signing and go to college, especially an in state school. The reason being that if an injury happens in college he is the guy who bypassed the quick route because of his love of college and school. Not only is their insurance for injury but also a new family that will look out for him. Injured in the minors and things are tougher.
Look I’m old,54 but I hope I never forget what it’s like to be 18. If he was my son, yes I have a 17 year old, I say trust you, believe in you and do what makes you happy because I know you won’t fail!!

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I wonder what Kirk (cousin of Elvis) is up to these days? I remember Jackie saying "If he gets offered 1M, I'm telling him to take it". Always wondered what type of QB he would have been.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

jeff ellis
@jeffMLBdraft
Two separate sources today mentioned an injury issue with Carter Stewart that has hung up the signing process
11:19 PM - Jul 2, 2018

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Don't tease us with this shit

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Originally Posted by dawgs

Don't tease us with this shit

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I hate it. If he doesn't sign with braves, I think he goes juco.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

I hate it. If he doesn't sign with braves, I think he goes juco.

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If he goes JUCO with a known injury he’s an idiot. His best choices right now are sign for significantly less money and get rehabbed there or go to MSU and rehab with us and play college ball. Going JUCO will ruin his career because he will face this issue again and they won’t draft him that high at all. Even the Braves guy says he will come to State if he doesn’t sign due to the wrist issue. If this was just money, sure I could see JUCO but not with this wrist issue.

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Originally Posted by MarketingBully

If he goes JUCO with a known injury he’s an idiot. His best choices right now are sign for significantly less money and get rehabbed there or go to MSU and rehab with us and play college ball. Going JUCO will ruin his career because he will face this issue again and they won’t draft him that high at all. Even the Braves guy says he will come to State if he doesn’t sign due to the wrist issue. If this was just money, sure I could see JUCO but not with this wrist issue.

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All according to what his doctor is saying. What if his doctor disagrees with braves' doctor. I just don't see us getting Stewart. I'm very pessimistic when it comes to getting players from mlb though

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Originally Posted by dawgs

No one handed $1.7M-$1.86M is going to live like someone making $50K per year, at not for the first year or 2. A nice house, a new car, some fun vacations, and suddenly you have eaten away significantly at that nest egg before it even gets invested.

I said it's a nice chunk of change, it's just not the kinda change that's going to take him from rags to riches. A lot of us could be set for life if we didn't care about enjoying things that cost money. But the reality is that even responsible spenders are going to put a significantly less amount than the full $1.7M-$1.86M into investments. Then we get into the taxes on the $51-55K you pull out each year, maybe in rural MS that's a decent living, but in many areas of the country, it's closer to poverty level than comfortable middle class.

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You think he's going to go drop money on a house while he bounces through the minors? Or is a 19 year old going to rent a place with other players?

$50k a year when you are also getting paid to play minor league baseball will get a 19 year old a nice car and some fun vacations.

To the extent you're worried about taxes, if he is just living on $50k a year from investments, that will be essentially tax free from a federal standpoint.

And $50k per year after tax is not close to the poverty level for a single person. As i said, it's low to mid middle class. Not exactly what people aspire to coming out of college, but still pretty good lifestyle to start out with as a base before you do any work at all. He can go coach high school ball if he loves baseball and still make double the median household income in most places.

That is life changing money. If you assume he's going to fritter it away, you can assume that for any amount, but I think most people from middle class parents with scott boras as an agent are going to have access to not incompetent advisors, so I suspect he'll be ok if he goes that route.