Jackie Sherrill spoiled us

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10-02-2017, 02:37 AM
Todd4State

Jackie Sherrill spoiled us

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.
10-02-2017, 05:14 AM
Indndawg

2 Edged Sword wthe Kang

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.

Great wins and head scratching losses (and ties)...Ark State comes to mind. Still, I'd trade a few head scratchers in on some upsets of the big boys.
10-02-2017, 06:26 AM
Bully13

Weren't both AU and UF both ranked that year we beat them back to back? What about those 2 wins over Texas? Were any of those 2 teams ranked?
10-02-2017, 07:30 AM
nsvltndog

This is likely only counting post season rankings. Texas in Starkville was ranked. I think Zook was ranked when he got Croomed, 2014 - LSU, A&M, and Auburn were all ranked. I suspect there are other examples.
10-02-2017, 07:34 AM
msstate7

We have to be the only fanbase I know that picks criteria that paints us in the worst light. It?s weird... Most fanbases would definitely count the 3 wins vs highly ranked teams in ?14; not us though. You think bama talks about their fsu win as being over an unranked team? Nah, fsu was highly ranked and they broke fsu. Meanwhile, we beat those teams in ?14 and well, I guess they weren?t any good.
10-02-2017, 07:37 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsvltndog

This is likely only counting post season rankings. Texas in Starkville was ranked. I think Zook was ranked when he got Croomed, 2014 - LSU, A&M, and Auburn were all ranked. I suspect there are other examples.

You are correct. And the reason I picked that criteria is because that's what ESPN is using with Dan and his 2-15 record.
10-02-2017, 08:00 AM
thf24

Jackie was great in this area for sure, although without looking I feel like it was probably easier and more common to pull significant upsets in that era. That was a little before my time, but I don't think we were quite seeing the machines of consistency that the top teams are now. It seems like in the modern era, you have to be at least close in terms of top end talent to pull a bunch of upsets.
10-02-2017, 08:01 AM
Liverpooldawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

You are correct. And the reason I picked that criteria is because that's what ESPN is using with Dan and his 2-15 record.

It needs to be mentioned again I guess: ESPN has a nice colony of Rebs working there. Why we insist on aiding them I have no idea.
10-02-2017, 08:11 AM
basedog

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg

It needs to be mentioned again I guess: ESPN has a nice colony of Rebs working there. Why we insist on aiding them I have no idea.

Good question. The problem with some they feel better that they know how to fix our history. DM is more good than bad, he has improved on what JSW built.

Let's hope the nex Coach builds on what DM has built, it's coming and some will get there wish, let's just hope we don't get Croomed!
10-02-2017, 08:16 AM
Political Hack

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.
10-02-2017, 08:27 AM
stalkingpoon

2-15 when both teams are ranked. Come on we beat 3 top 25 teams in a row in 2014.
10-02-2017, 08:59 AM
Maroonthirteen

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

We have to be the only fanbase I know that picks criteria that paints us in the worst light.

Many State fans get their talking points from their buddy OM fans.
10-02-2017, 09:01 AM
Maroonthirteen

Why is this stat getting so much attention?

What does it matter if we are ranked or not? What is Dans record period vs ranked opponents? What is Dans overall winning percentage at MSU compared to all time results for MSU?
10-02-2017, 09:16 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Political Hack

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Political Hack again.

Dan's not a problem. He's not perfect, but he's not a problem. These BS cherry picking negative stats just serve to reinforce our inferiority complex. Dan has the program at our highest point since the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. It was fun knocking off some big teams under Jackie. But, it totally sucked knowing that would be nullified every year with a loss to Arkansas State, or Memphis, a terrible LSU team, or some other directional school. What Jackie did was also not sustainable nor was it a solid program foundation. Dan has given us a solid program foundation for the first time in our history. Can he make a jump to the next level? I don't know. What I do know is I'm at least willing to ride with Dan to see if he can over the next 4-5 years.
10-02-2017, 09:24 AM
Liverpooldawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Political Hack

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

Outstanding post!!!
10-02-2017, 09:27 AM
Bully13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Political Hack

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

Bump for accuracy. Nailed it Hack. Gracias Senior.
10-02-2017, 09:37 AM
99jc

Dan #1 in the country Jackie not. Way to much credit to Jackie for success take

Joe lee Dunn out of the picture and his defenses jackie was mediocre at best.
10-02-2017, 09:53 AM
confucius say

Quote:

Originally Posted by stalkingpoon

2-15 when both teams are ranked. Come on we beat 3 top 25 teams in a row in 2014.

THIS!! Read people. 2-15 when both teams are ranked. Y'all think we've only played 17 games against ranked teams in 8.5 years?
10-02-2017, 09:54 AM
Acid mouth

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

You are correct. And the reason I picked that criteria is because that's what ESPN is using with Dan and his 2-15 record.

One more reason to hate ESPN. You can skew stats whichever way you want but I'm going with the eye test. Mullen develops under the radar talent, and he sends them to the NFL. He is the only coach in the state who can say that. I want Vegas odds on Dan beating just one Top 25 team over the next 5 years.
10-02-2017, 09:57 AM
War Machine Dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.

You're looking at the wrong stat. The stat ESPN is talking about is ranked vs ranked (I think). Using that stat, The Kang was 3-13. So, a little better than Mullen, but not a whole lot.
10-02-2017, 09:59 AM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by Political Hack

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

Excellent post Hack. Let's see what Dan can do with ole miss crippled and LSU down with Cookie Monster for a couple of years. Dan has a chance to lock down in-state recruiting and increase our footprint in Bayou Land.
10-02-2017, 10:11 AM
Cooterpoot

1. The SEC has been considerably better the past decade than it was while Sherrill was at State.
2. Mullen is just figuring out some of the recruiting stuff. He's hired people to help out and our next couple of classes are going to be stronger.
3. You're going to see more money going into football now that we've just about gotten all of our other sport facilities upgraded and more competitive.
10-02-2017, 10:11 AM
Doggie_Style

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.

So you are saying that Dan's performance is Croom-esque.......The thing I always remembered about the Croom years was the feeling that we were not competitive against top teams, same feeling I have today.
10-02-2017, 10:27 AM
thf24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doggie_Style

So you are saying that Dan's performance is Croom-esque.......The thing I always remembered about the Croom years was the feeling that we were not competitive against top teams, same feeling I have today.

Competitive against top teams? Don't you mean competitive against teams with a pulse? In 8.5 seasons, Mullen has lost to ONE team he absolutely shouldn't have. How many did Croom lose to in five? Mullen has stabilized our program in a way that no one else has been able to in a LONG time, and while he might not be progressing as fast as some of us would like, it was a necessary step if we ever want to achieve higher consistent success. The idea that our program at any point under Mullen has the same feel as Croom, aside from Mullen's low points MAYBE equating to Croom's high points in 2007, is absolutely ridiculous.
10-02-2017, 10:28 AM
MadDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by War Machine Dawg

You're looking at the wrong stat. The stat ESPN is talking about is ranked vs ranked (I think). Using that stat, The Kang was 3-13. So, a little better than Mullen, but not a whole lot.

Thru 2016, under Mullen we are 2-31 against teams that finished the season ranked in the final AP poll.

0-13 against teams that finished in the top 5
0-19 against teams that finished in the top 10
0-23 against teams that finished in the top 15
2-10 against teams that finished 16-25
10-02-2017, 10:31 AM
LC Dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by stalkingpoon

2-15 when both teams are ranked. Come on we beat 3 top 25 teams in a row in 2014.

Exactly. And I would like to see in how many of those seventeen games we were the lower ranked team. Just for an example if we are ranked 24 and we play #12 we are supposed to lose the game but if we are unranked and we beat #8 we are also supposed to lose that game. However, if we do happen to win the game against #8 it will not help us in this stat that the dickheads at ESPN have been flashing for all to see. I realize that we have to make improvements but stats like these are just used to show Mississippi State in a negative light. The same media people were pumping up Mullen for every coaching job a couple of weeks ago.
10-02-2017, 10:32 AM
QuadrupleOption

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doggie_Style

So you are saying that Dan's performance is Croom-esque.......The thing I always remembered about the Croom years was the feeling that we were not competitive against top teams, same feeling I have today.

Are you saying that Mullen and Croom are equivalent? Because if so that's the stupidest ****ing thing I've read in awhile.
10-02-2017, 10:42 AM
confucius say

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadDawg

Thru 2016, under Mullen we are 2-31 against teams that finished the season ranked in the final AP poll.

0-13 against teams that finished in the top 5
0-19 against teams that finished in the top 10
0-23 against teams that finished in the top 15
2-10 against teams that finished 16-25

End of year rankings. Geez. If Aggie and Lsu had beat us in 14 they both end the season ranked as 9 win teams. The reason they weren't ranked is bc we beat them. That's why you can't use end of year rankings.
10-02-2017, 10:46 AM
MadDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

End of year rankings. Geez. If Aggie and Lsu had beat us in 14 they both end the season ranked as 9 win teams. The reason they weren't ranked is bc we beat them. That's why you can't use end of year rankings.

I just put this out there for comparison sake. I will say this though, it's hard to argue we beat the #12 ranked LSU Tigers this year, when they finish the season 4-8.
10-02-2017, 10:46 AM
confucius say

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doggie_Style

So you are saying that Dan's performance is Croom-esque.......The thing I always remembered about the Croom years was the feeling that we were not competitive against top teams, same feeling I have today.

That's the lasting memory you have of the croom years? Really? That we weren't good enough to compete with the best teams in America?
10-02-2017, 10:53 AM
confucius say

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadDawg

I just put this out there for comparison sake. I will say this though, it's hard to argue we beat the #12 ranked LSU Tigers this year, when they finish the season 4-8.

No it's not. It's factual.
Now it's hard to argue Lsu is the 12th best team in America, no doubt. But you can't take away wins against a team that was ranked when you beat them bc pollsters had that team over ranked. Way too many variables in play for that.

This whole thread started bc dan is 2-15 when ranked and playing against ranked teams. Can I take away the uga and aub losses since we are not ranked anymore? No.
10-02-2017, 11:33 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

No it's not. It's factual.
Now it's hard to argue Lsu is the 12th best team in America, no doubt. But you can't take away wins against a team that was ranked when you beat them bc pollsters had that team over ranked. Way too many variables in play for that.

This whole thread started bc dan is 2-15 when ranked and playing against ranked teams. Can I take away the uga and aub losses since we are not ranked anymore? No.

Great last point...
10-02-2017, 11:34 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

That's the lasting memory you have of the croom years? Really? That we weren't good enough to compete with the best teams in America?

To be fair, Maine is a sleeping giant
10-02-2017, 11:40 AM
Bulldogg31

The highest ranking for JWS was #8, for three weeks.
10-02-2017, 11:51 AM
MarketingBully

Dan basically got a $4.7 million a year salary by winning games he should win and losing games he’s supposed to lose. We over paid him because of Hugh Freeze’s two wins over Alabama. In all honesty, he’s really not a $5 million guy. But in all fairness, neither are a lot of the numbskull coaches that are in this league besides Nick Saban. Nick Saban is worth much more than $10 million a year and he has absolutely devistated this conference.
10-02-2017, 12:09 PM
Bubb Rubb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.

Meh, you can't compare eras. The SEC of those days wasn't quite the gauntlet it is today. There was one point in 2013 or 2014, I don't remember which, where all 7 SEC west teams were ranked. It is quite simply the toughest division in college football. I give no credence to a stat that discounts head-to-head ranked opponents. We played three opponents in a row in 2014 who were all top 5 at the time (or close to it) and beat all three. That they slipped at the end of the year is not our problem. We had something to do with it.

Jackie had a tendency to shit the bed in epic fashion at times, losing to La Tech, or tying Arkansas State, or losing to Troy.

We are going to be fine.
10-02-2017, 12:52 PM
MadDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

No it's not. It's factual.
Now it's hard to argue Lsu is the 12th best team in America, no doubt. But you can't take away wins against a team that was ranked when you beat them bc pollsters had that team over ranked. Way too many variables in play for that.

This whole thread started bc dan is 2-15 when ranked and playing against ranked teams. Can I take away the uga and aub losses since we are not ranked anymore? No.

Um, why would you take those games away? They are different stats using different criteria. You can argue which is the better stat all you want. It is what it is.
10-02-2017, 12:53 PM
MadDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Great last point...

What was the point then?
10-02-2017, 12:55 PM
Commercecomet24

Dan is 5-11 against ranked teams since 2014. That 2-15 is when we are ranked.
10-02-2017, 01:17 PM
bulldawg28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Political Hack

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

Thank you

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