Rainy Sunday Recruiting Analysis

Bored this afternoon I took a look back at our recruiting under dans tenure. I placed players in their actual position they played at state and broke down each position by stars. I intentionally left off players that I knew didn't make it through their freshmen year. This is very unscientific but I hoped it could generate a little discussion. Also, even though I know it's gonna happen, can we not turn it into dumping on hev right off the bat.

QB:
6 3 stars
2 4 stars
25% 4 star or better

RB:
8 3 stars
5 4 stars
38% 4 star or better

WR:
20 3 stars
6 4 stars
23% 4 star or better

TE:
11 3 stars
0% 4 star or better

OL
34 3 stars
2 4 stars
6% 4 star or better

DL
22 3 stars
11 4 stars
2 5 stars
37% 4 star or better

LB
13 3 stars
6 4 stars
32% 4 star or better

CB
14 3 stars
3 4 stars
18% 4 star or better

S
15 3 stars
2 4 stars
12% 4 star or better

Using the percentages with dl getting a bump for the 2 5's they rank
1. DL
2. RB
3. LB
4. QB
5. WR
6. CB
7. S
8. OL
9. TE

We've addressed tight end recruiting by letting go of Sallach and QB recruiting seems to be about to explode, but the cornerback and safety recruiting really surprised me when I saw it

Hevesy. I think he coaches OL well. Huge liability recruiting and that's not acceptable.

S and CB is surprising since we have had our best recruiters (TBuck, Hughes, Townsend) at those positions

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Originally Posted by Big4Dawg

S and CB is surprising since we have had our best recruiters (TBuck, Hughes, Townsend) at those positions

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This is the biggest position to me where we see highly rated kids step in the field the quickest. And that doesn't fit what Mullen sees us as. Tons of freshmen play those positions across the country.

What about players classified as Athletes? Plus, I feel that the players across the country that are ranked > 4 stars which are a bust, there are just as many that are huge steals at <3 stars that are hidden jewels. This is where we excel at player evaluation.

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Originally Posted by Big4Dawg

S and CB is surprising since we have had our best recruiters (TBuck, Hughes, Townsend) at those positions

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And we did absolutely nothing to parlay Banks' Thorpe award and he & Slay getting drafted. Pretty poor job actually. Mullen is capitalizing on Dak, but we failed to capitalize on Banks & Slay

Two things that jump out.

Brandon Bryant was a 4* talent recruited as a 3*

Darius Slay was a 5* talent recruited as a 3*

It didn't help that we shared the state with the biggest cheater in recruiting in the nation. OM specialized in paying for OL, DL, and WR. I expect to see at least a one or two player per year bump in recruiting with OM down.

I'd sure as hell love to know who the other five 4* receivers were besides Ross. That position group has absolutely been just as big of a bust recruiting-wise as OL has. I could give less than a crap whether the star ratings back that up, because the actual number of players in the NFL certainly does.

A lot of the lack of CB/S recruiting or lack thereof falls into Melvin Smith's lap.

It's pretty obvious why John Hevesy doesn't do well in recruiting when you see him being interviewed. He's pretty much an asshole that doesn't hide being an asshole. Those guys usually don't recruit well in anything in life.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

A lot of the lack of CB/S recruiting or lack thereof falls into Melvin Smith's lap.

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I dunno about that. We haven't had an above average group of safeties since around 2000 or so. Like WR, we've absolutely sucked at recruiting that position for a very long time. Far too long to pin on any one assistant coach.

As for CB recruiting, it's been a lot better than the numbers above show. Slay and Banks were both 3-stars recruits that ended up having 5-star value. Taveze Calhoun was either a 2-star or 3-star recruit that ended up having probably 4-star value. Goes to show, again, that you can't use star ratings exclusively as a measure of recruiting success.

The 5 other 4 stars at wide receiver were Chris smith, chad bumphis, michael Carr, Donald Gray, and Malik Dear. So a few above average players, a couple solid players and one complete bust. For whatever reason, we have a hard time producing NFL receivers; moulds and orlanda truitt are the only two I can really remember getting much NFL pt. I think Justin Jenkins and lance long may have had a cup of coffee but that's about it.

The NFL talk on the receivers got me curious and I looked up what the breakdown of drafted players for Mullen was.
QB 1
RB 3
WR 0
TE 1
OL 3
DL 5
LB 5
CB 3
S 1

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Originally Posted by Shake 'n Bake

The NFL talk on the receivers got me curious and I looked up what the breakdown of drafted players for Mullen was.
QB 1
RB 3
WR 0
TE 1
OL 3
DL 5
LB 5
CB 3
S 1

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On WR, it goes back a lot further than Mullen. There are people who were not alive the last time we had a WR drafted that are old enough to legally buy beer now.

The good news is, OL is probably the position with the lowest correlation between recruiting stars and college success. The bad news is, a lot of our 3-stars haven't turned out well, either.

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Originally Posted by smootness

The good news is, OL is probably the position with the lowest correlation between recruiting stars and college success. The bad news is, a lot of our 3-stars haven't turned out well, either.

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I agree about correlation. What worries, looking at the 18' class for example, is our number of OL targets. Glancing through 247 it is very worrisome how few we're after, and it appears we're only going after one 4*. Historically is seems like we have rarely even tried to court high ranked WR and OL.

We always settle for the 6, out of 10, that's puffing reds and crushing budweiser when the bars closing, cause we're too scared to approach the 10 on the dance floor.

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Originally Posted by Perpetual Underachiever

I agree about correlation. What worries, looking at the 18' class for example, is our number of OL targets. Glancing through 247 it is very worrisome how few we're after, and it appears we're only going after one 4*. Historically is seems like we have rarely even tried to court high ranked WR and OL.

We always settle for the 6, out of 10, that's puffing reds and crushing budweiser when the bars closing, cause we're too scared to approach the 10 on the dance floor.

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Again, though, I don't really care as much that we're not going after a bunch of 4* OL. Projecting HS OL is just a very difficult thing, and the success rate on highly-ranked guys isn't particularly good (once you get past the clear elite guys). We just have to do a better job of scouting them.

My biggest complaint on the ol is that we just don't sign enough. We seem content to sign 3 high schoolers a year and then patch in with jucos down the road. Problem with that is our hit rate with juco ol is minimal

Ross w Carolina should negate the 0.

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Originally Posted by Shake 'n Bake

My biggest complaint on the ol is that we just don't sign enough. We seem content to sign 3 high schoolers a year and then patch in with jucos down the road. Problem with that is our hit rate with juco ol is minimal

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Agreed.

Did Hevesy recruit OL's well at Florida? or did someone do it for him (i.e. DJ Looney)

if you factor in Cord Sanberg @ QB (4*) that category jumps to 50% ... also, don't we have a current commit that is projected to be a 4* by the end of his senior season @ QB ?

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Originally Posted by Shake 'n Bake

My biggest complaint on the ol is that we just don't sign enough. We seem content to sign 3 high schoolers a year and then patch in with jucos down the road. Problem with that is our hit rate with juco ol is minimal

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Joey Trapp does not agree with you******