Do you see ANY hints that this dry-spell will break in November? I understand that long-range predictions are difficult to make, but when do you think we will enter a "wet" phase? This sucks.
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Do you see ANY hints that this dry-spell will break in November? I understand that long-range predictions are difficult to make, but when do you think we will enter a "wet" phase? This sucks.
April looks promising**
LOL!!Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Seeing a pattern change potentially in mid November. Looks like the next week and a half will be dry though. Forecasts of rain through mid December show 5 inches of rain or so based on patterns. That's obviously not enough to do much but it's better than nothing.
The old saying that drought begets drought is something that we are seeing play out right now.
This rainfall total map from the GFS over the next 17 days shows the ridge preventing rain from entering MS and AL. You can see the rainfall totals getting shunted up and over the ridge.
http://i.imgur.com/zbfEsWQ.jpg
Do your rain dance!Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
We MAYYYY have rain before the end of the season. We would have a better chance for an actual wet week before Arkansas before anytime else.
I have seen a lot of wet Egg Bowls or around the Egg. IT'S coming. ;)
I hope it's a flood fit for Noah.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgface
The truth is, they don't know. Meteorology is neither art nor science. You would be better off asking a gypsy to read your palm.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
Meteorology is very much science. It's just not advanced to the degree to accurately say what will happen 10+ days out. The advances in forecasting accuracy has increased tremendously the last 20 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
As an engineer,Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
V always equals IR
F always equals MA
I could go on.
Your field has a long ways to go with both precision and accuracy.
And engineering doesn't have near the variables and scale of meteorology.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
It doesn't? So engineering is simple compared meteorology? Well, tell the OP whether he needs to water his food plot or not without expending resources such as water.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
I am not a weather geek, but do have access to a good one. El Ni?o has given way to La Ni?a and the result will be:
Dec will have near normal temps and near normal precipitation in extreme north Ms. Most of south Ms will see below normal precipitation with near normal temps. Ms Jan temps will be mostly normal, with above normal precipitation in south ms and normal temps in north ms. Feb temps and precipitation will be normal in most of Ms.
Alright, I'm just going to stop you right there. You're right. We have a long ways to go in precision and accuracy. But what is the standard for you? We are taking something as massive as THE ATMOSPHERE and trying to figure out what it will be doing 24, 48, 264 hours from now. With this in mind, we have endless numbers of equations and variables that we are having to work with, just like Engineers. However, we are dealing with something that is constantly moving and we cannot see. Engineers have the advantage of the fact that you can isolate something and you be able to accurate represent it by an equation. However, Meteorologists don't have that luxury. Why? Because you try creating an accurate atmosphere at a small enough level to gain a macro understanding of. Now take it and multiply it by a couple trillion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
There's a reason our calculations REQUIRE a supercomputer. Not just any supercomputer, but some of the strongest and fastest supercomputers ever made. Our equations are infinitely changing and complex ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primit...tive_equations ). Some of our variables cannot be measured, so we estimate using proxies. By the time we calculate these equations and forecast them out 6 hours for let's say a 100 square mile area, you've burned about 20-25 minutes. We also have the chaos variable in our equations. One small deviation from the correct reading, even plugging in the exact same things, will cause DRAMATIC differences in the long-term forecast.
The simple fact is, you don't know a damn thing about how hard it is for Meteorologists. If you saw what are forecasts were 40-50 years ago and compare them to now, you'd be thankful for what all we have gone through to provide you as accurate of a forecast as possible. Do we get forecasts wrong at times? You're damn right. But we ALL get together and discuss what we did wrong. We find the problem, find a solution, fix it, and make it so it doesn't happen again. So before you go talking about how Meteorology isn't a science, you better check yourself before you wreck yourself.
Have a nice day, BTO. And GTFO
I apologize for the rant, but don't ever say that Meteorology is not a science. I could've gone on for longer, but I didn't feel like typing out more than that.
And for the record, I'm not a met. I've had a total of one college level met class. My degrees are in wildlife biology and business. I just love the field and have studied and tried to learn as much as I can to be a better and safer storm chaser. My overall subject matter knowledge is embarrassing compared to Refs.
We are a cow college, go buy yourself a farmers almanac!
So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Thank you. It is at least as accurate as a meteorologist.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgbite
Jeez guys... let's fight about firing Mullen or something, not career choices
Go sit down. Have a nice little timeout.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
Scientist can't tell me what the weather is going to do 10 days out... but I'm supposed to believe what the scientists say the earth is going to do 50 years from now??? #notbuyingthehoax
Because everything an engineer does is correct the first time. Is medical studies science? I guess the medical field has seen no chdnges over time. Damn pseudo science. Should you tell your doctor to shove his degree up his ass or should I?Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
To answer your question, there are hints the pattern will change and rain will return by the middle of the month. That said, forecast accuracy markedly decreases beyond 10 days. What is bad about drought is that drought conditions cause a feedback making drought conditions more likely. The ground loses all its moisture so there is no evaporation for the solar heating to overcome so all its energy goes into heating the ground and the air above it. If this were happening in August we'd all be baking in triple digit heat. But sooner or later a front will have enough punch to break down this ridge and give us rain.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
Good lord dudeQuote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
http://pixmeme.com/ww/templates/Snickers.jpg
Damn, all I wanted to know was when I could expect some duck holes to fill up and all I accomplished was starting a family feud.
For the record, meteorology is a science in its early stages.
Dude you come into a weather thread and bash meteorologists then get butt hurt about his response. Grow up Peter Pan. What a clown.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
Btw I appreciate the weather info we get on here y'all do a good job.
Love the weather and all the science associated with it. The complexity and dynamics of the atmosphere is unrivaled. Thanks for the input Ref and Starkvegas. Nothing more boring to me than a calm cloudless day and nothing more exciting than a day of possible violent weather. Can never get over the unbridled power of a severe thunderstorm.
All BTO said that meteorology is not as exact of a science as engineering. And he's right. It sounds to me like the weather guys are the ones getting butt hurt.
It is what it is. I respect weathermen but if you don't like being wrong from time to time it's the wrong field for you.
No, he said it was not a science. Saying it's not an exact science is ok, saying it's not a science is insulting. To that extent, the medical profession is not as exact a science as engineering. Doesn't make it less a science. The whole concept of true science is new truths are discovered that changes how things are done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taog Redloh
...this guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
Here is the latest per the GFS. It is showing some much needed rain finally moving through the area between 11/8 and 11/10. The map below shows the total rainfall expected during this time. While this is still several days out and barely inside the 10 day window for when I start to think there may be something to it, a lot can still change. That said, there has been some consistent hits of a system moving through during this time period among several models. I'm cautiously optimistic we may see some much needed rain at some point around this time frame. As my crystal ball gets a better handle on things updates will be provided.
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps..._acc.us_se.png
Once again you don't read shit before shooting your ccksucker off. Bto got this cranked up with the gypsy comment. Stay out of shit that ain't your shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taog Redloh
Thanks starkvegasdawg. The above referenced map is very encouraging. About 2.3 inches of rain would really change my outlook on life right now.
It would everybody's I think. I'm hoping when the CFS and GGEM update around lunch they will also show this. Right now they are still showing dry, but that was from the 7:00pm run yesterday. The Euro is also showing a chance at this rain and it is one of the most reliable models out there. Fingers crossed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
I'll add my worthless two cents. I manage large construction crews. I spend a fair amount of my time "re-engineering" and helping engineers understand how the real work works. I'd say weather is as much a science as engineering. They are both much needed and much appreciated. Neither are perfect.
And BTO was being a ..........
FWIW, there is a 30-40% chance on Thursday of some showers and thunderstorms associated with a "cool" front. Take that as you wish.
I'm a ChemE and we are by no means always perfect. If we were we wouldn't have a job. In my line of work at least, we are continually fighting the changing properties of the oil and contaminants, just trying to keep it between the ditches of performance without breaking the bank on costs. An exact science platform used in an non exact science implementation. Almost mad scientists type. Sometimes frustrating but never monotonous.