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Sept. 3 vs. South Alabama - 97.6 %
Sept. 10 vs. South Carolina - 73.6%
Sept. 17 at LSU - 13.3%
Sept. 25 at Massachusetts - 96.1%
Oct. 8 vs. Auburn - 54.5%
Oct. 14 at BYU - 57.6%
Oct. 22 at Kentucky - 65.9 %
Oct. 29 vs. Samford - 97.9
Nov. 5 vs. Texas A&M - 47%
Nov. 12 at Alabama - 17.6%
Nov. 19 vs. Arkansas - 59.2%
Nov. 26 at Ole Miss - 23.6%
So going by this they are giving us better than average odds of going 8-4 with no chance against LSU, Bama, and the bears.
It's going to take something just short of a miracle to beat the Bears in Oxford this year. We really screwed the pooch losing to them at home.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
I think that's better than what most think. We don't know our QB situation, our OL could be our weakest link, and we aren't sure about RB yet. 8 wins would be huge for us I think. If we sweep at home and win UMASS and BYU, that's not a bad year. Would suck to lose the Egg Bowl, but getting 8 or more wins after losing Dak would be a major step for us.
I actually think those percentages look pretty reasonable. I do think we have a better than 54% chance against Auburn and probably better than 23% against OM. I would put that more at 35%.
I'll take 8-4 right now
I think that list of odds looks pretty accurate. The only things I would debate is the odds on the Ole Miss game, and Texas A&M game.
We all know by the beginning of November Texas A&M will be well into the implosion they have every season. Not too worried about that one.
Ole Miss should be favored, but they aren't going to be nearly as good this year as they were last year. I think our odds on that one should be around 40%. I think 8-4 would be an excellent season, and would build some momentum for a possible very good season in 2017.
SC should be lower.
A&M should be higher.
Bama and OM shouldn't be in the same neighborhood. That's ridiculous.
Their O line is going to be bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDawg
Damn rightQuote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
It was supposed to be last year as well. Their system masks it well when they have an experienced QB to execute the right way - which they do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
I agree....Quote:
Originally Posted by Political Hack
8-4 is about right. The odds of us winning the EB will increase as the season progresses. It will be in the mid 40's by November.
Not sure this is right. Their predictions work out to a record of 7.039-4.961. I would think that works out to less than even odds of going 8-4, although I'm not exactly how to work out what those odds woudl be.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
We may have screwed the pooch by playing so poorly for the first quarter and a half but the Bears had a more overall talented team than we did last year. In fact I would say UNM screwed the pooch last year WAY bigger than us by losing to Arkansas. They really should have won the West. The draft showed that the Bears had the most upper end talent of any team in the SEC and were on par or nearly on par with Bama in overall talent.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDawg
They at least had experience last year. Aren't they losing 4 out of 5 starters? That's going to hurt badly considering they didn't have a ton of talent to begin with outside of Tunsil.Quote:
Originally Posted by ckDOG
As bad as we sucked vs UNM, keep in mind, we were moving the ball on them effectively, but 2 of our 1st 3 possessions resulted in t/o's on 2 bad plays by us, and that had us down 21-0 in the 1st Q. We closed to within 11 by teh 4th Q, but we had just dug too deep a hole.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDawg
So, with all their cheating, LT, LQ & Kimchee, they needed those miscues by us to make it happen. This year, they lose a lot of talent. Sure, it's at UNM, but I think there is a tendency to oversell UNM and undersell us. I think we're gonna bring it in Oxford this year.
They are losing the Best Lineman in the country. Their line did not get better until he returned. Not only that I think they are losing three other lineman. Last year they had fairly easy schedule the first half of the season but this year they have three bigger bears in the first four weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by ckDOG
Lose those three games and having the cloud hanging over their team it could get ugly.
OM had both OT's drafted. Their OL will not be as good. A lot of the guys starting this were the ones getting their heads pounded by Fla and Memphis. Their O does mask their OL deficiencies because they do get rid of the ball quicker- but they still gonna have some problems. Especially facing Fla State, Bama, and Georgia out the chute.
They also had another Oline drafted this year. I think 7-5 is about right but 8-4 is possible. 6-6 would be slightly disappointing with 9-3 causing me to pass out from sheer joy. I like that we get USCe early since they have a new coaching staff. A&M late could be good if they are imploding or bad if the new QB is settled into the system by then. Moses would have to line up at RB for us to beat LSU or Bama to part the defense like the Red Sea. UNM could be interesting if the NCAA comes out with penalties or the coaching staff gets fired. That would change the whole outlook of that game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
Maybe I am underrating BYU but I was not very impressed with them. They lost to Missouri last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
The nice thing about the schedule is that our toss-up games are all at home. I would be fine with 8-4.
It's hard to have a lot of idea right now but I would be pretty happy with 8-3 going into the Egg Bowl... and might close to being 9-3 purely based on those % (But Auburn could fall the other way as a L too).
If we go 8-4 and it's not because three out of the four of USC, Auburn, A&M, and UNM turn into dumpster fires, then that will be reason to be damn excited. This should be a rebuilding year, so if we get 8 regular season wins this year and it's not because of a ridiculously down SEC West plus USCe, that will be a pretty good sign.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
USCe doesn't have the Jimmy and Joes. Spurriers age was used against him the last 2 recruiting cycle hard, and it was evident when they played that they just didn't have enough talent. I wont be shocked to see us favored by double digits. Also Muschamp is terrible and had 2 NFL qbs at Florida he couldn't win with. (Brisset and Driskel)Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
We are long overdue to beat SC. Wish we could have beaten Spurrier one more time.
8-4 is my pick with an outside shot at 9-3 if the offense gels quicker than expected.
Would love 8-4 but feel like 7-5 is more likely. If we find a running back and a serviceable O-line I think we can get to 8 or 9 but I don't have a lot of confidence in finding a quality O line before season rolls around.
Us getting to 8 wins or beyond is more than likely going to depend on other teams being bad. Just don't see how we can expect to even be as good as we were last year. The good news is that there are 9 teams on our schedule that could end up being a worse than we were last year, but two of those being worse (Auburn and A&M) will probably require that they have serious lockerroom issues. If they don't let off the field issues mess them up, they will be better than us, and getting to 8 wins would require us not slipping at all against the other opponents, including winning what will likely be toss up games at best against UNM and Ark.Quote:
Originally Posted by BB30
I agree with you. We are going to really miss Dak a lot more than I think some people realize and our O line was atrocious against even average D lines last year. It will be tough to get to 8 wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
I'm expecting 6-6 or 7-5. 8 or more will be gravy. 5 would be a gut punch.
As for Ole Miss....they will beat FSU. Don't get your hopes up on that one. Just my opinion. I do think they still lose 4 on the season though. I think they finish 8-4, with a shot at 9-3.
Anything's possible but that seems like an extreme long shot. You can make some money, FSU is an 8.5 favorite.Quote:
Originally Posted by CadaverDawg
FSU returns 17 starters compared to OM with 9. And it's essentially a home game for FSU.
Who is FSU's QB? Early in a season, give me the better defense and QB. Ole Miss will play good D, and Kelly will be the best QB on the field. I just don't see why people are picking FSU. You may be right though.Quote:
Originally Posted by DancingRabbit
I'd rather expect an OM win and be pleasantly surprised.
Yeah, their QB situation is a question mark but their RB is supposed to be one of the best in the country - and a very good O-line. FSU had a better defense than OM last year and OM only returns 5 starters.Quote:
Originally Posted by CadaverDawg
The line at 8.5 seems high, but FSU is a legitimate favorite.
All great points. I may be way off.Quote:
Originally Posted by DancingRabbit