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The schedule sets up well for another nine to 10 win season. We have South Carolina at home early, go to LSU. I don't expect for State to win in Baton Rouge, but should win all the non conference games, plus beat Auburn and A&M at home. The BYU game on the road could be a toss up, as well as the Ole Miss game on the road. I don't expect to beat Alabama in T-Town. Am I looking through rose colored glasses?
7 is the floor. 11 is the ceiling.
Anything 7.5 or under from Vegas and I'll take the over.
I refuse to believe that we will struggle to run the ball as much as we did this year so that will take some pressure off of Fitz (or Staley). We have a defense full of young guys but we have got to fix the secondary and get some more bodies up front. I really believe if Ross AND Bear come back then we have a great shot at 8-10 wins. Also agree that 7 should be the floor.
Does BYU have a coach yet? I'm not worried about that one at all, we are much further as a program than we were last time we played.
BYU also lost to Mizzou this year -- I'm really not worried about themQuote:
Originally Posted by Leroy Jenkins
Alabama is a definite loss, as is Ole Miss unless Kelly decides to unexpectedly leave early or gets hurt. LSU is a probable loss. Every other game on the schedule we should win. BYU wasn't very good and they are going through a coaching change so it will likely be an adjustment year for them anyway. 9-3 should be the expectation, anything better is gravy.Quote:
Originally Posted by rabbitthedawg
They hired Oregon States DC.Quote:
Originally Posted by Leroy Jenkins
Yes. You're not wrong that the schedule sets up well for a nine or 10 win season, it just doesn't set up a nine or 10 win season for the team we're going to have.Quote:
Originally Posted by rabbitthedawg
We're going to have our own problems to overcome. We should have 3 OOC gimmes, and then games we should win but are within the margin of error against USC, BYU, and UK. Auburn and A&M have flirted with dumpster fire status. Auburn has righted the ship more than A&M but we're closer to them in talent. That should be a toss-up game at worst. A&M has more talent than us but have to figure out their QB situation. That game could end up being anywhere from MSU being solidly favored to MSU being a sold dog. Depending on how things go, that could be 4 wins to 8 wins out of that group. Then you have Arkansas that I expect to be favored over us (their better positioned to lose their qb than we are). Then you have what I would expect to be a toss-up b/w UM and MSU but it's at Oxford and I'm not going to assume that we show up prepared for another egg bowl until we do it. Then you have LSU that I think is going to be too talented for us in Baton Rouge and a sure loss to Bama.
There is so much uncertainty with the SEC W teams, we could certainly end up with 8 relatively easy wins and then a couple of toss-ups, but I think it's much more likely that we'll end up with 4 or 5 easy wins, another 3 or 2 should wins, one or two toss-ups and one or two should lose games and then one or two certain losses.
Next year will be mroe important than most that we take care of all the games we're favored in, because that might only be five or six games.
Ross,Bear, Jones and Brown all declare. What is the record then?Quote:
Originally Posted by missouridawg
I think its when we played them. They seem to start strong then injuries hit them and they fall off.Quote:
Originally Posted by Statefan
Arkansas will be harder to deal with next year even at home and Auburn wont be the door knob they were this year ... like you I am optimistic because I (probably the only one here) think the drop off in QB play wont be as bad as expected ...obviously it will drop but it certainly wont fall off the face of the earth ... several of our young players looked good yesterday and while that maturing process will take a while I still think we will be satisfied as a fanbase with next years results
I think Mullen is to Arkansas whe Houston nutt was to us when he was there. If Arkansas couldn't beat us this year as hot as they were late I don't know if they will in the near future. I think Mullen has their number and I just don't think we lose a home SEC game next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by FISHDAWG
What gives any hope of having a better run game? I don't think any QB is going to be a better runner than Dak. We also return the Holloway / Shumpert up the middle run game. Has Mullen ever started a underclassmen over a senior at RB?Quote:
Originally Posted by runwildjerious
Much of the thought comes from the fact that the running game really can't get any worse, so it has nowhere to go but up. Kinda like if you make a 3 on the ACT test, surely you will do better next time. If you make a 34 on the ACT test, then it's going to be hard to improve your score.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
My best case for a better run game:Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
(1) We can run our QB a lot more next year. We couldn't run Dak a lot and run the risk of hurting him and only having a RS Freshman to play qb. We won't have as big of a drop-off from 1st to 2nd team QB next year. We can run Fitz and Staley a lot and then cut back if one gets banged up.
(2) Shump at FB will allow us to add some plays with an extra blocker.
(3) Dear and Myles will provide us a better option for run plays out of the slot.
(4) Our weakest link on the OL won't be as weak as the weakest link this year. Even losing Malone, a RS So Jenkins, a RS SO calhoun, and a Sr. Desper will not be as weak as Warren and RS Fr Jenkins were this year.
(5) Aeris Williams and D. Lee will get to play next year and Holloway will be used appropriately rather than asking Shump and Holloway to do things they're not capable of doing.
But this is mostly a devil's advocate argument. I do think we'll run the QB more next year and that will help a lot. I do think our weaker link on the OL will be a little stronger this year, but not so much stronger that it makes a huge difference. But the other three items require that Dan do things I just don't expect him to do. We're going to have a RB by committee next year, Holloway is going to get used like Perkins did his senior year, Shump is going to get used like Nick Griffin got used his senior year (but with more playing time), and Aeris and D. Lee will play the role of Josh Robinson.
I think just bringing back the read option will make us better, but we're still going to be pretty mediocre.
I don't get all of the UM love next year. I don't fear Kelly in the least, and other than him who do they have coming back? Still won't be able to run the ball and they will lose their best 2 OL. Also, Kelly had a great EB but looked like a complete dipshit out there at times. I feel like a lot of his success came from being the product of a system and having great receivers. I am not saying we will win in Oxford next year, but saying it is a definite loss is a stretch.Quote:
Originally Posted by HSVDawg
4 OOC wins. We beat Kentucky. It's what we do. We get SC early and they will still be adjusting to a new staff, and aren't that good of a squad right now to be honest. Auburn will struggle again next season and A&M can't find a defense.
WR, RB, and OL should be the same or better. If Bear and Fred come back we're going to be scary good at WR. RB looks like it should get a big boost from Shump after his performance in the bowl game. I think a light has gone off for he and Williams, plus we have Holloway still along with DLee and a deep freshman group to pull from. They're going to help a lot on special teams too. I wasn't so positive before the bowl game, but I'm convinced that they've already gotten better and will continue to do so through the spring and summer. OL won't be worse and they look improved after bowl practice too.
We may have the best S combo that we've had under Mullen. DT isn't a forgone conclusion as a let down because no one has declared yet... "Yet" being the key word though. Hope it holds. Also, our LBs will be a year older and better. We may have the best LB corps in the SEC. Also going to help on special teams. I really think if the defense decides en masse to come back, they could be very special. I can se a few surprises popping up on the defensive side of the ball too. You heard it here first...
K and P are gold.
You are in for a surpriseQuote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
Robinson over Griffin last yearQuote:
Has Mullen ever started a underclassmen over a senior at RB?
Agree Engie. I think Fitz is a better runner. If he doesn't rip off 1,000 next year (assuming he doesn't split time), I'll be surprised.
A&M better be marked as a win. They have 1 QB. Not even a commit yet.
I don't know if I'd say better, they have difference styles that have the potential to produce similar results. Fitz has a second gear that Dak just didn't have. I think We will see a lot more designed QB runs working to the outside with Shump and/or the TE as lead blockers. You get Fitz in the open field and he will out run a whole helluva lot of defenders. That will open up our inside game much more then what we have had in the past 3-4 years. Makes the whole running game more versatile.Quote:
Originally Posted by Political Hack
I love the enthusiasm for next year too, but I think this may be overly optimistic. In my view, the floor is 6 and the ceiling is 8 wins next year. We have a lot of things to work out and we'll lack the senior leadership at QB and need to prove that the running game will work. D-line is going to be thin next year and young guys will need to step in and provide some impact. Corner could be thin, Safety will continue to be a question mark until we can show some consistent play in SEC games. Could we exceed 8 wins - absolutely? Just like we "could have" won 10 or 11 games this year. Didn't happen though and I wouldn't set my expectations too high for next year.
For reference, I predicted 9 - 3 this year (always predict a bowl win too) so I was overly optimistic this past season.
They return a million 4* and 5* receivers in Stringfellow, Adeboyjo, Pack, Lodge, and Van Jefferson. Engram is probably coming back. They lose Tunsil but return their top 3 lineman besides him in Taylor, Rawlings, and Patterson, and likely replace Tunsil with an equal talent in Little. They lose Walton but still have two RB's that will both be better than him coming back in Judd and Wilkins.Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Bruce Dickinson
On defense, their only major loss is Nkemdiche but they have guys behind him like Speaks ready to step in. They also lose some guys in the secondary, but their secondary was terrible this year anyways so should be no major losses.
On top of all that, they play us at home and have a recruiting class that will be better than their 2013 class coming in. It doesn't fit the narrative around here, but unfortunately they are going to be very good again next year.
8-4 assuming everybody but jones comes back. Same thing I said for this year.
Their top OL were Tunsil & Cooper & it wasn't close. Taylor didn't play a lot or well this year because he played on a bum shoulder. They also lose 3 other OL who played a lot of snaps (Morris, Still, & Bell). Also lose Treadwell, Core, & Walton.Quote:
Originally Posted by HSVDawg
On defense their 2 best players this year were Elston & Hilton. Both gone. Upfront they lose nkimdiche, Ward, & Hamilton. CJ & Denzel at LB, & Chief Brown in the secondary too. They lose a lot. They're bringing in a top 10 class but outside of Little they don't have a true impact Freshman unless I'm over looking somebody. They'll be a solid team but they won't challenge for the West. They'll win 7-9 games similar to MSU.
Bad breakdownQuote:
Originally Posted by HSVDawg
First off, your correct, they return a ton of WR talent. No issue there
They lose their top 2 linemen in Tunsil & Cooper, both of whom are NFL caliber. The also lose Morris, Still, & Justin Bell. They lose 4 starters on the OL. Little is talented, but he ain't gonna be nowhere close to as good as Tunsil in his FR year. Furthermore, although Little is very good, he isn't of Tunsil's caliber. He's the best of the bunch, but Tunsil is special. Little isn't that type of talent. Some years the best basketball player is Michael Jordan, & other years it's Ben Simmons. Good player, but not the same.
They lose Walton, who was their best RB by a mile this year. Has more shake than the other two.
On defense, Kimchee is a big loss, but losing Mike Hilton & Trae Elston out of their secondary may be even bigger. Their secondary wasn't great for most of the year, but it was pretty good once they moved Mike Hilton to CB late in the season. The secondary us & LSU faced was best they were playing all year, due to the move of Hilton.
I think Chad Kelly is good enough for them to keep their heads above water next year, but, make no mistake, they lose a ton. A shit ton.
They are a 7-8 win team next year. They lose the left side of their OL, both Centers, and one of the nation's best WR's- plus Core. Defensively -they lose some good players. We'll see again how good their DL plays w/o Kimchee tomorrowQuote:
Originally Posted by HSVDawg
Their schedule is rough- they start off with Fla State, Georgia, and Bama in their first 4 games.