Flab's Tunsil hypothesis

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07-04-2015, 01:58 AM
FlabLoser

Flab's Tunsil hypothesis

According to Wikipedia, NFL agents get up to 3% of their client's salary. The NFL caps that commission to 3%. They also get upwards of 20% of player endorsements.

By some accounts, Tunsil could be the #1 pick in the draft. 3% of the 2015 #1 picks's salary would be about $700k. So Tunsil's agent easily stands to make $500,000 to $700,000. And that's just Tunsil's first contract. If Tunsil stays with the agent, he gets more than that in contract 2 after about 4 years. OL don't get much in endorsements, so I'll neglect that.

Ol Flab here has been asing questions for a week, collecting facts, and considering many scenarios. Here is what I think is likely happening in the Tunsil story. This is just my leading hypothesis. I am making no accusations. I'm taking a guess at what has happened to now and what will happen in the future. The following is completely fictious..unless it becomes true.

Lots of agents are trying to win Tunsil. Its crootin season all over again.

Stepdad was offered a commision to win Tunsil's signature. Probably six figures. Let's call it $100k. Stepdad has 100,000 reasons to get Tunsil to sign with "the right agent".

Stepdad and Tunsil argued over agents. Tunsil found out, probably from another agent, that Stepdad's influence had been bought. They get in a fight. Tunsil beats the crap out of Stepdad.

Stepdad sees his $100,000 evaporating and is absolutely livid. Stepdad seeks to burn Tunsil as much as possible.

Tunsil's draft status is already locked up. He's going to go where he's going to go no matter if he plays this year or not.

So Stepdad can't do any real damage to Tunsil, but he's going to make as much noise as possible. He's going to expose everything he knows in regards to Tunsil and the Ole Miss crootin machine. He probably doesn't know dirt on other players. But he's going to make Tunsil sit out of football this season.

Tunsil is declared ineligible and never plays another down of college football. Nothing else happens to Ole Miss. No probabtion, nothing.

Ole Miss finished the regular season 7-5 and has a top 10 recruiting class in 2016.
07-04-2015, 03:01 AM
Bothrops

Seems sensible.
07-04-2015, 06:25 AM
gravedigger

I'd say plausible, not probable.

Om's problems will be bigger if NCAA digs deeper. It will shine a bright light on next feb. I don't think this costs Tunsil more than a game.

USC, and UNC might raise hell that the SEC is getting off light. Which may cause a bit more pressure to be put on investigators to work harder.
07-04-2015, 07:20 AM
Oxfordawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by gravedigger

I'd say plausible, not probable.

Om's problems will be bigger if NCAA digs deeper. It will shine a bright light on next feb. I don't think this costs Tunsil more than a game.

USC, and UNC might raise hell that the SEC is getting off light. Which may cause a bit more pressure to be put on investigators to work harder.

This could be the SEC sacrificial lamb we can only hope
07-04-2015, 07:58 AM
Dawgface

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oxfordawg

This could be the SEC sacrificial lamb we can only hope

Possible. You know they won't let one of the big boys be it.
07-04-2015, 08:56 AM
KB21

Here's what I think will happen. When the NCAA starts digging into other things, Ole Miss will throw Tunsil under the bus and act like they knew nothing of what was going on. The NCAA will likely accept this and move on. Tunsil doesn't play, which honestly is probably what he desires anyway. He goes down to IMG in Florida and prepares for the draft.
07-04-2015, 09:04 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by gravedigger

I'd say plausible, not probable.

Om's problems will be bigger if NCAA digs deeper. It will shine a bright light on next feb. I don't think this costs Tunsil more than a game.

USC, and UNC might raise hell that the SEC is getting off light. Which may cause a bit more pressure to be put on investigators to work harder.

It might depend on how many of the network guys that were involved with Tunsil were involved with the other big recruits. I'd say it's likely that some of the same people were involved with the other players. It just depends on how many nukes Miller has.
07-04-2015, 09:08 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by KB21

Here's what I think will happen. When the NCAA starts digging into other things, Ole Miss will throw Tunsil under the bus and act like they knew nothing of what was going on. The NCAA will likely accept this and move on. Tunsil doesn't play, which honestly is probably what he desires anyway. He goes down to IMG in Florida and prepares for the draft.

They might do that. But on the other hand they've gotten away with so much I expect them to fight to the bitter end. They've got way too much invested in Tunsil, Nkemdiche, Treadwell, and Conner and Freeze knows that there is probably a good chance his career is going to get smeared anyway so he doesn't have anything to lose either. Especially if he has managed his money decently.
07-04-2015, 09:23 AM
843dawg

The Ole Miss lawyers will hang Miller because he sold the pics to TMZ. That was a stupid ass move on his part. If he really wanted to get OM in hot water he would have went straight to the NCAA. He will be discredited because of that move. Nothing substantial will happen to OM. Will Tunsil play this year? I'd say there's still a 98% chance. Jmo
07-04-2015, 10:04 AM
Coach34

I dont think the NCAA looks at the selling of pics to TMZ as discrediting him at all. He will tell them what he has, and they will collect info from Tunsil to see if it matches. Its not difficult
07-04-2015, 10:08 AM
Jacksondevildog

Don't let your Bear buddies tell you that. They aren't lawyers just because they went to Ole Miss and now sell insurance for State Farm.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

The Ole Miss lawyers will hang Miller because he sold the pics to TMZ. That was a stupid ass move on his part. If he really wanted to get OM in hot water he would have went straight to the NCAA. He will be discredited because of that move. Nothing substantial will happen to OM. Will Tunsil play this year? I'd say there's still a 98% chance. Jmo
07-04-2015, 10:15 AM
AlSwearengen

When olemiss bought tunsil out from under georgia, wasn't georgia's president a big wig in the ncaa and might still be?

There was a lot of angst from many schools when olemiss put on that show, complete with dramatics on espn from a coach who was in his first year in the big time. It wasn't just us that was bitching. If Georgia's president is still in a position of influence, this might be what they are looking for to go after olemiss. And lo and behold it is Tunsil that got it started.
07-04-2015, 10:19 AM
ShotgunDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

The Ole Miss lawyers will hang Miller because he sold the pics to TMZ. That was a stupid ass move on his part. If he really wanted to get OM in hot water he would have went straight to the NCAA. He will be discredited because of that move. Nothing substantial will happen to OM. Will Tunsil play this year? I'd say there's still a 98% chance. Jmo

This is complete ignorance. Not stupidity, but ignorance.

Miller selling pictures to TMZ has & will have absolutely NOTHING to do with the outcome of this case.
07-04-2015, 10:25 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlSwearengen

When olemiss bought tunsil out from under georgia, wasn't georgia's president a big wig in the ncaa and might still be?

There was a lot of angst from many schools when olemiss put on that show, complete with dramatics on espn from a coach who was in his first year in the big time. It wasn't just us that was bitching. If Georgia's president is still in a position of influence, this might be what they are looking for to go after olemiss. And lo and behold it is Tunsil that got it started.

And as I like to point out we still kept them from getting Jones, Shumpert, and Jake Thomas- all whom they wanted really bad.
07-04-2015, 10:26 AM
ShotgunDawg

Ruh, Roh

Miller Mrosek ‏@mrosekNFL 5m5 minutes ago
Rumor was Laremy Tunsil flipped from UGA to Ole Miss after they offered 100K and Natl. Champ. tix. His stepfather is now backing that claim.

http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p.../Blowtorch.gif
07-04-2015, 10:27 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

This is complete ignorance. Not stupidity, but ignorance.

Miller selling pictures to TMZ has & will have absolutely NOTHING to do with the outcome of this case.

If USC with their connections and lawyers and AD who is a former Rhodes Scholar can get put on probation, Ole Miss sure as hell can.
07-04-2015, 10:27 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlSwearengen

When olemiss bought tunsil out from under georgia, wasn't georgia's president a big wig in the ncaa and might still be?

There was a lot of angst from many schools when olemiss put on that show, complete with dramatics on espn from a coach who was in his first year in the big time. It wasn't just us that was bitching. If Georgia's president is still in a position of influence, this might be what they are looking for to go after olemiss. And lo and behold it is Tunsil that got it started.

You are thinking of Michael Adams. He left the NCAA and is now chancellor of Pepperdine. After the beating he took from UGA after the Harrick disaster and not renewing Dooley's contract, I don't think he will care that much about it
07-04-2015, 10:32 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Ruh, Roh

Miller Mrosek ‏@mrosekNFL 5m5 minutes ago
Rumor was Laremy Tunsil flipped from UGA to Ole Miss after they offered 100K and Natl. Champ. tix. His stepfather is now backing that claim.

http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p.../Blowtorch.gif

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/3207...xplosion-o.gif
07-04-2015, 11:11 AM
Coach34

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Ruh, Roh

Miller Mrosek ‏@mrosekNFL 5m5 minutes ago
Rumor was Laremy Tunsil flipped from UGA to Ole Miss after they offered 100K and Natl. Champ. tix. His stepfather is now backing that claim.

http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p.../Blowtorch.gif

https://vine.co/v/hMY2Ehd969a
07-04-2015, 11:27 AM
Gordon Gekko

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Ruh, Roh

Miller Mrosek ‏@mrosekNFL 5m5 minutes ago
Rumor was Laremy Tunsil flipped from UGA to Ole Miss after they offered 100K and Natl. Champ. tix. His stepfather is now backing that claim.

http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p.../Blowtorch.gif

This is where the Bears show they are not ready to play the game with the big boys. Bama and Auburn would have paid this guy off before pictures were sent to TMZ and the NCAA got involved.
07-04-2015, 12:06 PM
War Machine Dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Ruh, Roh

Miller Mrosek ‏@mrosekNFL 5m5 minutes ago
Rumor was Laremy Tunsil flipped from UGA to Ole Miss after they offered 100K and Natl. Champ. tix. His stepfather is now backing that claim.

http://i.imgur.com/rTjkVGl.gif
http://i.imgur.com/sOM2E7e.jpg
07-04-2015, 01:44 PM
the59dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko

This is where the Bears show they are not ready to play the game with the big boys. Bama and Auburn would have paid this guy off before pictures were sent to TMZ and the NCAA got involved.

Have the pics been posted on TMZ? Haven't seen this written about before now.
07-04-2015, 01:50 PM
Gordon Gekko

Quote:

Originally Posted by the59dawg

Have the pics been posted on TMZ? Haven't seen this written about before now.

Pics of the step dad after the fight. Not pics of money changing hands or anything.
07-04-2015, 02:21 PM
843dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacksondevildog

Don't let your Bear buddies tell you that. They aren't lawyers just because they went to Ole Miss and now sell insurance for State Farm.

I haven't talked to any OM folks about this. Just going off of what it looks like to me.
07-04-2015, 02:25 PM
843dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

This is complete ignorance. Not stupidity, but ignorance.

Miller selling pictures to TMZ has & will have absolutely NOTHING to do with the outcome of this case.

So selling pics for money to a national tabloid doesn't look bad on his part to you? Doesn't make it look like he's out for money? Don't let how badly you want OM to suffer interfere with rational thought.
07-04-2015, 02:29 PM
Coach34

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

So selling pics for money to a national tabloid doesn't look bad on his part to you? Doesn't make it look like he's out for money? Don't let how badly you want OM to suffer interfere with rational thought.

trying to make some cash doesn't make you a bad person. The NCAA isn't going to pay him a dime- and he knows that
07-04-2015, 02:30 PM
spiritual_machine2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

So selling pics for money to a national tabloid doesn't look bad on his part to you? Doesn't make it look like he's out for money? Don't let how badly you want OM to suffer interfere with rational thought.

How does him spilling the beans to the NCAA make him money? The NCAA won't pay him for info. I'm not saying the stepfather is an upstanding model citizen. But that is irrelevant to the situation.
07-04-2015, 02:35 PM
BeardoMSU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

So selling pics for money to a national tabloid doesn't look bad on his part to you? Doesn't make it look like he's out for money? Don't let how badly you want OM to suffer interfere with rational thought.

He was painted as a wife-beater out of the gate. It doesn't look bad to you that before the police report was even released, the head coach of a SEC football program was vehemently showing support for his player that was just arrested for domestic violence? That looked shady as shit, and something an intelligent person just does not do. Freeze may have believed Laremy's story 100%, but you can't go all in on that without getting all the information. That is a major risk.
07-04-2015, 02:50 PM
843dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by spiritual_machine2005

How does him spilling the beans to the NCAA make him money? The NCAA won't pay him for info. I'm not saying the stepfather is an upstanding model citizen. But that is irrelevant to the situation.

I guess I'm coming at it from a stand point that the NCAA takes credibility into account. That's probably not the case though.
07-04-2015, 02:53 PM
843dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeardoMSU

He was painted as a wife-beater out of the gate. It doesn't look bad to you that before the police report was even released, the head coach of a SEC football program was vehemently showing support for his player that was just arrested for domestic violence? That looked shady as shit, and something an intelligent person just does not do. Freeze may have believed Laremy's story 100%, but you can't go all in on that without getting all the information. That is a major risk.

No, it doesn't look strange to me for a coach to come out in support of their players. Happens all the time.
07-04-2015, 02:53 PM
Maroonthirteen

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

They might do that. But on the other hand they've gotten away with so much I expect them to fight to the bitter end. They've got way too much invested in Tunsil........

Yep! OM will take on a typical defense of anyone that is guilty and had a good lawyer...... stonewalling. They won't throw Tunsil under any bus. They will promise him and mom Faulkner's home to.keep them happy.

The NCAA will get pissed about the stonewall and the fact OM flaunted their recruiting haul back then. The NCAA will declare him ineligible amid the investigation and he will never play again for OM.
07-04-2015, 02:54 PM
Schultzy

Yeah, it's never smart to physically harm or defame someone who has information that can bury you.

That's where the OM spin machine overplayed their hand here. No telling what comes of this but they better hope the head of enforcement for football gets disinterested in a hurry.
07-04-2015, 03:01 PM
AlSwearengen

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

No, it doesn't look strange to me for a coach to come out in support of their players. Happens all the time.

Did you even see the original report? Freeze basically said the guy was a wife beater. Every other coach in the country says they "need to let all of the facts come out before making a statement". Freeze on the other hand always tries to get out in front and steer the message. He knows what is expected of him. Problem is he is a dumb ass and just starts blurting shit out. This isn't the first time he has done it and looked like a dumb ass in the end.
07-04-2015, 03:03 PM
Bass Chaser

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

So selling pics for money to a national tabloid doesn't look bad on his part to you? Doesn't make it look like he's out for money? Don't let how badly you want OM to suffer interfere with rational thought.

According to Sam R. Hall (@samrhall) at the CL, the CL had these pictures as well but an editorial decision was made not to print.
07-04-2015, 03:04 PM
spiritual_machine2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

No, it doesn't look strange to me for a coach to come out in support of their players. Happens all the time.

Well the whole narrative of him being a "wife-beater" came from Freeze's premature statement. And no, coaches do not usually come out and support players that just got ARRESTED without all the facts.
07-04-2015, 03:25 PM
843dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlSwearengen

Did you even see the original report? Freeze basically said the guy was a wife beater. Every other coach in the country says they "need to let all of the facts come out before making a statement". Freeze on the other hand always tries to get out in front and steer the message. He knows what is expected of him. Problem is he is a dumb ass and just starts blurting shit out. This isn't the first time he has done it and looked like a dumb ass in the end.

Never said it was a good decision. Just said it didn't surprise me.
07-04-2015, 03:33 PM
BeardoMSU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 843dawg

No, it doesn't look strange to me for a coach to come out in support of their players. Happens all the time.

If your player gets arrested for beating the shit out of a family member, you don't come out in support until all the facts are out. Period. He should have waited at least until the police report before talking about how "proud" he was of LT.
07-04-2015, 03:43 PM
Dawgface

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeardoMSU

If your player gets arrested for beating the shit out of a family member, you don't come out in support until all the facts are out. Period. He should have waited at least until the police report before talking about how "proud" he was of LT.

Correct. I can't think of any coach who jumped the gun like Freeze did. Not in recent times.
07-04-2015, 03:51 PM
codeDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawgface

Correct. I can't think of any coach who jumped the gun like Freeze did. Not in recent times.

Freeze's wagon is securely hitched to that horse. He has no choice but to support and defend Tunsil.
07-04-2015, 05:21 PM
shoeless joe

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Ruh, Roh

Miller Mrosek ‏@mrosekNFL 5m5 minutes ago
Rumor was Laremy Tunsil flipped from UGA to Ole Miss after they offered 100K and Natl. Champ. tix. His stepfather is now backing that claim.

So now the step dad is racist too? Or just the NCAA? Or everybody in this thread? I can't keep up...