With the interview of Manny Diaz coming Monday, I have to admit that I am less than thrilled with the chance that he is the new DC. Should he get the job, I'll put on my best MSU alum/supporter face and get behind him 100%. That said, I want to address my issues with Diaz.
I posted this stat a while back but I wanted to post again. Manny Diaz stat: in 7 years as a DC (2 at MTSU, 1 at MSU, 3 at TX, and 1 LaTech) he has had 1 top-30 scoring defense. That was 2010 MSU where he was 21st with 9 future NFL players. Now we can cherry pick several stats that would seemingly point to him having a good defense but I point to scoring 100% of the time. 1 top-30 scoring defense in 7 years just doesn't point to a great DC.
Now many folks will counter that you have to compare his mid-major jobs to other mid-major jobs but that is cherry picking stats to support an argument. No better example than David Gibbs the DC (and current interim HC) at Houston. He was hired after a 2012 unit that gave up 36 ppg and was 110th in the nation in scoring. He immediately drops them to 21.8 ppg (20th nationally) in 2013 and 20.6 ppg (15th nationally) in 2014. Coaching at a mid-major with a historically awful defense didn't stop Gibbs from immediately throwing up 2 scoring units better than Diaz has ever fielded in his career.
Now on to what specifically bothers me with the potential Diaz hire. Mullen said when he was first hired that he was very difficult to prepare for. Stylistically, he blitzes a ton regardless of down or distance. It's a high risk, high reward style. In my opinion, what Diaz needs is what Joe Lee Dun needed for his style to be successful: an elite secondary.
When you look at Manny's best defense in his career, 2010 MSU, he had a 4-year starter at safety in Charles Mitchell who went on to get drafted by the Falcons. You had an NFL talent at the other safety in Nickoe Whitley who would have been in the NFL if it hadn't been for the achilles and knee injuries he suffered in my opinion. You also had future draft pick Jon Banks at corner being joined by Corey Broomfield. Before you discount Broomfield and Banks for being sophomores, keep in mind that they started as freshmen and combined for 10 INTs that year. I don't think there is any question that this was the most talented and experienced secondary under Mullen and rivals the talent of the elite Joe Lee Dunn units.
Then we have to go look at how that unit played that year. They were dead last in the SEC in total passing defense. They were 2nd best in passing completion against at only 52%. What that points to is that they gave up some big plays. MSU gave up 128 passing plays of 10 or more yards which was 106th in the nation. When we go a bit higher to passing plays of 40 or more yards, MSU gave up 14 which was 108th in the country. This is with the best secondary talent and experience Mullen has ever had. I don't say this to condemn that year's performance because points against is all that matters and 21.8 is acceptable. It's to illustrate that even with that level of talent, they were still susceptible to big passing plays.
When you look at what Collins did this yea only giving up 21.7 ppg (21st in the nation) with the sub-par safety play, it was awesome. His passing defense numbers almost mirror those of Diaz's 2010 unit but the talent in the secondary, safety especially, isn't even close. Where Collins really showed up and helped his scoring numbers was where he could mask the secondary, in the redzone. He had the #1 redzone defense in not only the SEC, but also the nation. Compare that to Diaz's 2010 unit which was 8th in the SEC and 65th nationally. Those redzone scoring numbers vs the talent/experience gap tell a story to me.
Going forward you have to look at what will be the next DCs biggest task on the MSU defense. That is without a doubt secondary and more specifically, safety. Cox was an SEC talent but not an SEC brain. Market is an all-sec brain but not physical talent. When they both went down, so did the team's play. It's hard to blame Hughes because he was coming off a achilles injury and that's what Markey will be coming off next year. We have to base our guaranteed safety play floor with what Collins ended the season with and that is downright terrifying, especially with a reckless blitzer like Diaz.
MSU had enough trouble defending big plays in the pass this year and that was with Collins playing back in coverage a lot. Can you imagine the results if these guys are in 0,1, or 2-deep man while blitzing the rest of the house? The good news is that I think MSU's safety talent will be much better with Brandon Bryant, Mark McLaurin, and Jamal Peters. Those guys are legit. I just don't know if it's next year. Assuming Dak returns, our window to compete is 1 more year before having to build back up.
At the end of the day, defensive football is 100% about scoring. It's not about TFLs, sacks, or some weird mayhem stat formula. Manny Diaz has never fielded a defense finished better that 21st and that was with 9 future NFL guys either starting or coming off the bench. Outside of that 1 year, his next best finish was 33rd in scoring defense (first year at TX) and everything else wasn't top 50. I know his style can work with the right conditions but I'm not sure the conditions are ideal for him at MSU in 2015.
****This is loosely related but I think this needs to be the biggest consideration on defense, especially in Manny is hired. Mike Detellier said on Out Of Bounds to compete for championships you have to be an elite developer at 2 positions: QB and DL. I have to agree. I love Mullen as a QB developer. The question is at DL. Mike D talked about how Coach O is an elite DL developer. I think that Mullen really needs to take a close look at Turner. If he decides that he is an elite DL developer, leave him be. If he's not, bring in someone who is. I think Coach O could be that guy but if Mullen's goes with Manny, I'd support exploring all options and new blood could be a good thing.****
