Ohio State committee ranking by week - 16, 16, 16, 14, 8, 6

All you folks who keep saying Ohio State has no chance because the committee "put them at #6 for a reason", might want to consider this:

OSU was ranked #16 the first 3 weeks, then started making their move. The last 3 weeks they have moved up in the rankings EVERY TIME! They are now at 6. They moved up 2 spots, then 6 spots, then 2 spots to #6.

It seems that every week that goes by the committee is remembering that VT loss less & less, and giving credit to OSU for winning.

In the 11/11 poll Baylor was #7, then had a bye that following Saturday. Ohio State was #8 in that poll, then beat then #25 Minnesota that following Saturday. The very next poll Ohio State jumped two spots, passing over a Baylor team that hadn't lost.

Why do so many of you think it's impossible the same thing could happen to us next week? I'm not talking about those who don't think we'll be passed over. I'm talking about those of you who are adamant about how it absolutely won't happen so long as we beat TSUN this weekend. The week after that we will sit at home while a # 5 of 6 Ohio State may be playing Wisconsin or Minnesota in the B10 CG.

Because they lost to Virginia Tech

Why are you advocating for Ohio State? I simply don't understand why some of you keep pushing this agenda, does this post help us to hold our spot, or would you rather be "right" and say I told you so *IF* the committee screws it up? I guess we can argue about it on yet another thread, just not really understanding the point of this happening 5 times a day. The committee has had us in the picture the whole time and we've never moved. I don't think that's an accident, but I guess you do. Agree to disagree I guess.

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Originally Posted by defiantdog

Because they lost to Virginia Tech

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They absorbed that hit before the first committee ranking. The fact that they have risen from #16 to #6 since then should give you a clue. The fact that they have risen 10 spots the past 3 weeks, and 2 spots, passing over an idle team, after beating a #25 should tell you even more.

Teams are losing ahead of them.

Ohio State has been #6 twice now. They did not jump anyone in last week's rankings.

Of course they have risen. They've won while others have lost. They will absolutely 100% not take a playoff spot from us if we don't lose.

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Originally Posted by randyholloway

Why are you advocating for Ohio State? I simply don't understand why some of you keep pushing this agenda, does this post help us to hold our spot, or would you rather be "right" and say I told you so *IF* the committee screws it up? I guess we can argue about it on yet another thread, just not really understanding the point of this happening 5 times a day. The committee has had us in the picture the whole time and we've never moved. I don't think that's an accident, but I guess you do. Agree to disagree I guess.

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I'm NOT advocating for Ohio State. I think we're a far better team and far more deserving. I take issue with those of you who are proclaiming us "in if we win, no matter what". I'm advocating for MSu as much or more than anybody else. But that doesn't mean I should "bury-my-head-in-the-sand" or not voice my opinion on this very hot topic.

And please, drop this bullshit about "another thread/5 times a day". You're not counting all the ones that agree with you instead. Patently hypocritical. The fact is, most of my posts on this subject have been in response to others taking a position I disagree with.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Ohio State has been #6 twice now. They did not jump anyone in last week's rankings.

Of course they have risen. They've won while others have lost. They will absolutely 100% not take a playoff spot from us if we don't lose.

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That's true, I stand corrected on that point. But you also might consider they just didn't jump a TCU team that has more T25 wins on their resume and had a recent win over highly-ranked K-State.

I'd say my point is still valid, if one of my facts was off. That doesn't change the fact that they've moved up A LOT in a short period of time, suggesting the committee is at least partially over the VT loss.

Remember, my point isn't that they will pass us, only that it's not a slam-dunk that they won't just because we beat Ole Miss the week prior to them playing a highly-ranked team for the B10 Championship.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Ohio State has been #6 twice now. They did not jump anyone in last week's rankings.

Of course they have risen. They've won while others have lost. They will absolutely 100% not take a playoff spot from us if we don't lose.

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When they leaped over Baylor, Baylor hadn't lost, they were merely idle, just as we will be the week OSU plays Whisky or Minn.

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

I'm NOT advocating for Ohio State. I think we're a far better team and far more deserving. I take issue with those of you who are proclaiming us "in if we win, no matter what". I'm advocating for MSu as much or more than anybody else. But that doesn't mean I should "bury-my-head-in-the-sand" or not voice my opinion on this very hot topic.

And please, drop this bullshit about "another thread/5 times a day". You're not counting all the ones that agree with you instead. Patently hypocritical. The fact is, most of my posts on this subject have been in response to others taking a position I disagree with.

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Not attacking you personally, please don't take it that way. I don't understand why this argument keeps coming up but it isn't personal. Happy Thanksgiving and all. :)

I'm from the Matt Wyatt school on the playoff, his explanation is as good as I've seen. It's very simple: quality wins and quality losses. Quality wins are defined by Top 25, but not only by that. Quality losses are the same. For us, it's easy. We were the best team in the country for the first half of the season and since that time we've only lost to one team- the top team in the current playoff poll. Ohio State on the other hand has the worst loss of any team in the top 7. They have moved up due to some quality wins (questionable in my mind, but the committee believes in Minnesota I guess), but they won't overcome that loss. It's simply the worst of any of the top teams. The top 4 win out and they're in- it isn't just MSU. It may tighten up behind the scenes, but I don't expect a major change.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but I think the analysis here is pretty straightforward. As another poster pointed out yesterday, if our loss was to Kentucky we wouldn't be in this conversation and we'd be on the outside looking in. That's exactly where OSU is, and also hindered by the weakness of B1G. They're not getting in unless others lose.

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Originally Posted by randyholloway

Not attacking you personally, please don't take it that way. I don't understand why this argument keeps coming up but it isn't personal. Happy Thanksgiving and all. :)

I'm from the Matt Wyatt school on the playoff, his explanation is as good as I've seen. It's very simple: quality wins and quality losses. Quality wins are defined by Top 25, but not only by that. Quality losses are the same. For us, it's easy. We were the best team in the country for the first half of the season and since that time we've only lost to one team- the top team in the current playoff poll. Ohio State on the other hand has the worst loss of any team in the top 7. They have moved up due to some quality wins (questionable in my mind, but the committee believes in Minnesota I guess), but they won't overcome that loss. It's simply the worst of any of the top teams. The top 4 win out and they're in- it isn't just MSU. It may tighten up behind the scenes, but I don't expect a major change.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but I think the analysis here is pretty straightforward. As another poster pointed out yesterday, if our loss was to Kentucky we wouldn't be in this conversation and we'd be on the outside looking in. That's exactly where OSU is, and also hindered by the weakness of B1G. They're not getting in unless others lose.

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Another thing to take into account is that the OSU pimps will talk about how Braxton Miller was out for that bad loss to Va Tech. My counter to that.... Braxton Miller doesn't play defense. They lost that game because their D gave up 35 pts to a hapless Va Tech offense AT HOME

I think they lose to Wisconsin in the Championship game! This is why I do not think they will jump us.

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Originally Posted by Boya

Another thing to take into account is that the OSU pimps will talk about how Braxton Miller was out for that bad loss to Va Tech. My counter to that.... Braxton Miller doesn't play defense. They lost that game because their D gave up 35 pts to a hapless Va Tech offense AT HOME

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Fsu beat a ranked Clemson team without Winston. No excuse for Ohio state

Virginia is going to end their season when they beat VaTech.

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Originally Posted by Political Hack

Virginia is going to end their season when they beat VaTech.

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Yep. Friday night, we're all hoos

State has remained in the top 4 for every poll- so we are suddenly going to get booted in the last one for no reason???

Chris Carter say "C'mon Mane"

No team finishing in the top four has ever lost at home by two touchdowns to a team with 6 or more losses. Ever.

I'm with Randy on this...

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Originally Posted by randyholloway

I'm from the Matt Wyatt school on the playoff, his explanation is as good as I've seen. It's very simple: quality wins and quality losses. Quality wins are defined by Top 25, but not only by that. Quality losses are the same. For us, it's easy. We were the best team in the country for the first half of the season and since that time we've only lost to one team- the top team in the current playoff poll. Ohio State on the other hand has the worst loss of any team in the top 7. They have moved up due to some quality wins (questionable in my mind, but the committee believes in Minnesota I guess), but they won't overcome that loss. It's simply the worst of any of the top teams. The top 4 win out and they're in- it isn't just MSU. It may tighten up behind the scenes, but I don't expect a major change.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but I think the analysis here is pretty straightforward. As another poster pointed out yesterday, if our loss was to Kentucky we wouldn't be in this conversation and we'd be on the outside looking in. That's exactly where OSU is, and also hindered by the weakness of B1G. They're not getting in unless others lose.

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Matt is correctly interpreting the way the committee is deicing this. Its not about what any media person believes. Its not about who the media thinks deserves to be in the top 4.

If you want to know what's going to happen, ready Randy's stuff above. And I'll add to that that the committee chairman said in considering quality wins, the ranking of the teams at the time the game was played is a big factor. Teams ebb and flow, so it makes sense that a quality win or loss is based on rankings at the time the game happened.

People might be entitled to their opinion, but the committee's opinion is the only one that counts. Their thinking is clear. Its not complicated. Just turn off Danny Kannel and Kirk Herbstreit and pay attention to the committee's words (through their chairman) and actions.

ETA: When asked if Mississippi State was just "hanging on" to #4, the committee chairman said that MSU was solidly in place at #4. That's an improvement over the previous week when he said that 4-7 were very close and almost tied.

This chairman guy talks in the 2nd half of each weekly CFP poll show on ESPN. He is worth listening too and AFAIK, this is the only time he talks. Everything else from media people that day and throughout the week is noise.

We can only control what we can control. Discuss it all you want against OSU and for OSU, but who gives a crap about talk. MSU can only control the outcome of our game with UM. We take care of business and hope we get a little help. The votes have been consistant on us the entire time. We are getting respect from everyone except 50% of the talking heads who job revolves around sport controversies for ratings and advertising. If it was clear cut through everyone's opinion, no one would read their articles or tune into their useless CFP ranking show.

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

Why do so many of you think it's impossible the same thing could happen to us next week? I'm not talking about those who don't think we'll be passed over. I'm talking about those of you who are adamant about how it absolutely won't happen so long as we beat TSUN this weekend.

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To believe that OSU will pass us is to believe that the Committee members are idiots and/or have no shame. The only reason to move OSU ahead of us would be a nod to potential tv ratings in the playoffs (although I'm not sure having OSU there really brings that much more interest. Are college football fans really not going to watch the playoffs?). It's certainly possible that the committee will let that be determinative, but what is there incentive to do that? I doubt ESPN will be giving them payments under the table. Maybe some of the committee members are fans of a team that will make the playoffs and want the field to be as weak as possible but are they really going to want to come out and say, after months and months of talk about how the playoff will be the best four teams, that that was all BS and really it's the four strongest conference champions?

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Originally Posted by Coach34

State has remained in the top 4 for every poll- so we are suddenly going to get booted in the last one for no reason???

Chris Carter say "C'mon Mane"

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Coach, you seem to have a mental block when it comes to the other side of this argument. NOBODY is saying it could happen for "no reason", rather reasons have been provided every time. If you prefer not to counter the reason - fine, but please don't act like nobody has given possible reasons.

There are a few, but the one quick one that's been mentioned in thos thread more than once, is that Ohio State gets to play for a Conference Championship, and against either Wisconsin or Minnesota, either of who will be higher-ranked than Ole Miss, especially after we beat them. So, while we are idle, Ohio State not only has a chance to beat a highly-ranked team, but in the same process to lay claim to a CC, something the committee has stated will be a factor. It is even on their website.

Now, consider that there is precedent for this very thing with OSU, when they leaped past Baylor when Baylor was idle. All Ohio State did that week was beat then #25 Minnesota, and for that the committee took them from #8, over #7 Baylor to #6. And in that case, it was a lower-ranked team they beat AND it didn't also come with a CC.

Now you may feel strongly the committee won't do that to us, but you should realize they damn well did it to Baylor, and for less reason than they would have if OSU beats whoever they play for the B10 Championship.

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Originally Posted by Johnson85

To believe that OSU will pass us is to believe that the Committee members are idiots and/or have no shame. The only reason to move OSU ahead of us would be a nod to potential tv ratings in the playoffs (although I'm not sure having OSU there really brings that much more interest. Are college football fans really not going to watch the playoffs?). It's certainly possible that the committee will let that be determinative, but what is there incentive to do that? I doubt ESPN will be giving them payments under the table. Maybe some of the committee members are fans of a team that will make the playoffs and want the field to be as weak as possible but are they really going to want to come out and say, after months and months of talk about how the playoff will be the best four teams, that that was all BS and really it's the four strongest conference champions?

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Well on the rivals.com main board, almost NOBODY thinks we'll stay #4. It is almost unanimously Ohio State, with a few predicting Baylor or TCU. Even other SEC fans think we'll get passed over in the end.

While I know a lot of them are, in fact, idiots, are they ALL idiots?

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

Well on the rivals.com main board, almost NOBODY thinks we'll stay #4. It is almost unanimously Ohio State, with a few predicting Baylor or TCU. Even other SEC fans think we'll get passed over in the end.

While I know a lot of them are, in fact, idiots, are they ALL idiots?

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If you watch tv and listen to all the analysts, you can't help but form this opinion.

If you notice a lot of these analysts are shocked with the top 25 every week. If they're shocked by rankings week to week, what makes you think they know what the end result will be 2 weeks from now?

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Originally Posted by msstate7

If you watch tv and listen to all the analysts, you can't help but form this opinion.

If you notice a lot of these analysts are shocked with the top 25 every week. If they're shocked by rankings week to week, what makes you think they know what the end result will be 2 weeks from now?

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This

Shotgun is retiring from "Playoff Talk" till after the weekend when we will have more information. At this point, we've beaten this horse to the point where we all must admit, "we don't know".

We don't know because no one knows who will lose this weekend and how much the committee values a conference championship. Do they value it 1% or 30%? No one knows.

I'm out

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

Coach, you seem to have a mental block when it comes to the other side of this argument. NOBODY is saying it could happen for "no reason", rather reasons have been provided every time. If you prefer not to counter the reason - fine, but please don't act like nobody has given possible reasons.

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No- there is no reason. Listen closely:

We have the best resume' out there.
We will share the SEC West title but lose the tiebreaker- the best conference in history this year- with all members being bowl-bound
Our only loss is on the road, by 5 points, to the nation's #1 team

We win Saturday- we are in- and may be #3 before it's said and done. We are closer to being 3rd than 5th

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Originally Posted by Coach34

No- there is no reason. Listen closely:

We have the best resume' out there.
We will share the SEC West title but lose the tiebreaker- the best conference in history this year- with all members being bowl-bound
Our only loss is on the road, by 5 points, to the nation's #1 team

We win Saturday- we are in- and may be #3 before it's said and done. We are closer to being 3rd than 5th

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Here are counters to your position:

By next week we may be sitting with 1-lower-ranked T-25 win, period. If LSU & Arky lose, and we beat the shit outta TSUN, this could happen. OSU, on the other hand, could finish that week with wins over Top 10 Michigan State, Top 14 Wisconsin, Top 25 Minnesota AND have a B10 Championship. At that point, arguing that our 5-point loss to #1 Bama trumps OSU's "quality wins" simply because they lost by 14 early in the season to a bad VT is skating on very thin ice.

We will be Co-West Division champs, but that is not rewarded by the committee, only CC's are.

I really hope you're right, and I actually expect us to stay in, in part because I remain hopeful the committee will still think we deserve it, but mainly because I think FSU will lose, and maybe even Oregon. I also think Wisky would beat OSU in the CG.

But for arguments sake, we just differ in opinion on whether there is no way we get left out if everything rolls the right way for either OSU or Baylor. I think a reasonable argument can be made, but you think it's completely out of the question.

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

Here are counters to your position:

By next week we may be sitting with 1-lower-ranked T-25 win, period.

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The committee leader- Jeff Long- said games would be judged on their ranking at the time. Period

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

Well on the rivals.com main board, almost NOBODY thinks we'll stay #4. It is almost unanimously Ohio State, with a few predicting Baylor or TCU. Even other SEC fans think we'll get passed over in the end.

While I know a lot of them are, in fact, idiots, are they ALL idiots?

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They all know, or are regurgitating, the same unknowing shit that the espn guys are. NOBODY in the media knows anything.

Uh, YOU PULL ME BACK IN...It won't come down the resumes. They will put in who they want and who they think are the best 4 teams. That's why they keep making stuff up and changing the criteria every week.

They just put out rankings to appease people and recognize win/loss records. They are well aware that unranked Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M, and, potentially, Ole Miss after this weekend, are far far better than Marshall and Boise, who Ole Miss blew out. Due to this obvious issue, the committee is well aware that MSU's resume is far better than its actual wins vs top 25 teams, and, due to this, they simply can't hold firm to the "top 25 wins" narrative. This is what Long was trying to say last night with the quote on knowing where teams were ranked when MSU played them, but it's tough to explain this without being critical of ranked teams, that are simply ranked there due to win/loss record and not due to quality. The committee members aren't retards.

This is where the media is missing the boat. They used the "resume" stuff early when it made sense. Now everyone is still trying to use the same method, but the committee isn't. THEY KNOW WHO THE BEST 4 TEAMS ARE.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

THEY KNOW WHO THE BEST 4 TEAMS ARE.

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Right- that's why Bama jumped to #1 AFTER THEY BEAT US. The best teams are already seeded and unless they screw it up they're in.

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Originally Posted by randyholloway

Right- that's why Bama jumped to #1 AFTER THEY BEAT US. The best teams are already seeded and unless they screw it up they're in.

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My thoughts as well.