Top 25 baseball score updates from the weekend

#2 SC lost 2 of 3 this weekend to UK.
#3 Virginia lost to Miami yesterday. They play today and tomorrow
#4 Oregon State lost 2 of 3 to Arizona State this weekend
#6 LSU took 2 of 3 from UGA, with the 3rd game ending in a 13 inning tie today
#11 NC State gets swept at Maryland this weekend. They will fall hard in the polls
#13 UNC loses 2 of 3 to Georgia Tech this weekend
#14 UCLA has split the first two games of their series with Washington State 1-1, and are currently tied in game 3 6-6 in the Top of the 9th

Those are all the scores that favor us from teams that are ranked ahead of us. I think with our showing this weekend we easily climb into the Top 15 (I'm looking at D1 Baseball for the rankings), but with us taking 2 of 3 from Vandy, I think we get ourselves out of the teens and into the 11 or 12 spot. Great weekend for us and a few teams in front of us certainly did not help themselves. Would look for a decent rise by us in the polls on Monday.

Top 15, yes. But to get 12 or higher, which of these do we leap-frog?

FSU
SCAr
Virginia
Oregon State
Vandy
LSU
Louisville
ULL
Oregon
Cal Poly
Cal State Fullerton
UCLA
Rice
Ole Miss

I'm assuming we jump over Clemson, NC & NC State. Maybe we get over on UCLA, but we'd still need to jump two more. Does Oregon State drop all the way down to 13 or lower? Maybe. They did lose 2 at home to ASU. But we'd still have to jump one more team that won their series.

I realize we are only in the second weekend of the SEC slate but still we are in the bottom four in the league in RPI as it currently stands. Again, long way to go but with our schedule being easier than last years, it's important we beat the teams we should and hopefully get some much needed W's against the better teams (i.e. LSU/UM). We moved up about 30 spots this weekend but at this point, not sure how much RPI is really relevant but it definitely shows how much we've got left to do.

We just gotta take care of business. Need to be at least 3-3 in the next two weeks preferrably 4-2. After that, the schedule is much better.

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

Top 15, yes. But to get 12 or higher, which of these do we leap-frog?

FSU
SCAr
Virginia
Oregon State
Vandy
LSU
Louisville
ULL
Oregon
Cal Poly
Cal State Fullerton
UCLA
Rice
Ole Miss

I'm assuming we jump over Clemson, NC & NC State. Maybe we get over on UCLA, but we'd still need to jump two more. Does Oregon State drop all the way down to 13 or lower? Maybe. They did lose 2 at home to ASU. But we'd still have to jump one more team that won their series.

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I think we could jump Oregon State. Arizona State was 9-9 heading into this weekend and Oregon State lost 2 to them at home. That's a killer. UCLA is a possibility too. They needed extra innings to win a home series against a Washington State team that was 8-8 heading into this weekend. We may only get to 13, but we need to keep moving up. If we are moving up, it means we are winning.

Our RPI may not be what we want it to be, but right now I don't care. We still play home series against OM, UT, TAMU, Arkansas, and away series against LSU, Bama, Auburn, and Missouri. We also have the Governor's Cup. RPI will sort itself out at the end of the year.

Y'all know which loss is killing our RPI right now? Holy Cross? Nope. Try freaking Arizona. Of all people- it's the PAC 12 school. Meanwhile Ole Miss is being propped up by beating Arkansas State and South Carolina once.

Good to see Arizona take two of three- we need to be pulling for them as much as anyone.

Bottom line though-if we finish top 3-4 in the SEC, we probably host.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Y'all know which loss is killing our RPI right now? Holy Cross? Nope. Try freaking Arizona. Of all people- it's the PAC 12 school. Meanwhile Ole Miss is being propped up by beating Arkansas State and South Carolina once.

Good to see Arizona take two of three- we need to be pulling for them as much as anyone.

Bottom line though-if we finish top 3-4 in the SEC, we probably host.

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Agreed. We should be pulling for them, Michigan State, and WCU big time.

Arizona needs to get their shit together though. Most people were thinking that was a solid win for us, but now they're on a 6 game losing streak and have an RPI of 230. If they and the other teams I mentioned could play better, it would really help our SOS.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by messageboardsuperhero

Agreed. We should be pulling for them, Michigan State, and WCU big time.

Arizona needs to get their shit together though. Most people were thinking that was a solid win for us, but now they're on a 6 game losing streak and have an RPI of 230. If they and the other teams I mentioned could play better, it would really help our SOS.

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Arizona got swept by Seton Hall and that's killing their RPI. We probably would have been better off scheduling Washington or Washington State and sweeping them than playing Arizona in hindsight.

Arizona just got swept by Washington in Washington's brand new 15$ million dollar ballpark.

Louisiana Lafayette has won 12 straight . They are a top 5 team right now and maybe the best team in Louisiana. Scored 5 runs today on 5 solo homers,as many as we have all season.

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Originally Posted by bully99

Arizona just got swept by Washington in Washington's brand new 15$ million dollar ballpark.

Louisiana Lafayette has won 12 straight . They are a top 5 team right now and maybe the best team in Louisiana. Scored 5 runs today on 5 solo homers,as many as we have all season.

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If we end up a #2 seed, please let it be in the ULL Regional.

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Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

If we end up a #2 seed, please let it be in the ULL Regional.

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U think they're overrated?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

If we end up a #2 seed, please let it be in the ULL Regional.

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Im 99% the discussion will be National Seed vs. Just hosting by the time the calender turns to May.

I was in Starkville for the Fri/Sat games, I feel about as confident as I have since the SEC tournament last year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Y'all know which loss is killing our RPI right now? Holy Cross? Nope. Try freaking Arizona. Of all people- it's the PAC 12 school. Meanwhile Ole Miss is being propped up by beating Arkansas State and South Carolina once.

Good to see Arizona take two of three- we need to be pulling for them as much as anyone.

Bottom line though-if we finish top 3-4 in the SEC, we probably host.

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2 losses at home to #129 Holy Cross is hurting too. In fact, I wonder which really does hurt us more, going 1-1 at #219 Arizona or 2-2 at home versus Holy Cross. Don't they factor road versus home games? And we're talking about 2 home losses versus 1 road loss. Also, does the damage differential go down as you get farther down the RPI rankings? Is there really that much difference between losing to #219 versus losing to #129? Is it a straight line-plot, or does it virtually "bottom out" at some point?

We are going to host. Just a question if we are a national when all said and done.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

2 losses at home to #129 Holy Cross is hurting too. In fact, I wonder which really does hurt us more, going 1-1 at #219 Arizona or 2-2 at home versus Holy Cross. Don't they factor road versus home games? And we're talking about 2 home losses versus 1 road loss. Also, does the damage differential go down as you get farther down the RPI rankings? Is there really that much difference between losing to #219 versus losing to #129? Is it a straight line-plot, or does it virtually "bottom out" at some point?

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1. Arizona is more than likely going to finish a good bit higher than #230 before it's all said and done.

2. Holy Cross is also going to finish much worse that #130- it'll probably be more like #200 at the end of the year.

3. I expect the Holy Cross losses to hurt more.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog

Im 99% the discussion will be National Seed vs. Just hosting by the time the calender turns to May.

I was in Starkville for the Fri/Sat games, I feel about as confident as I have since the SEC tournament last year.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by I seen it dawg

We are going to host. Just a question if we are a national when all said and done.

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I hope y'all are right. It may take around 19-20 SEC wins to get a host spot locked up, IMO.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by messageboardsuperhero

I hope y'all are right. It may take around 19-20 SEC wins to get a host spot locked up, IMO.

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If we get to 7-2 when we head down to Baton Rouge and are 8-4 after it, we will get to 20+ SEC wins. Trust me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

2 losses at home to #129 Holy Cross is hurting too. In fact, I wonder which really does hurt us more, going 1-1 at #219 Arizona or 2-2 at home versus Holy Cross. Don't they factor road versus home games? And we're talking about 2 home losses versus 1 road loss. Also, does the damage differential go down as you get farther down the RPI rankings? Is there really that much difference between losing to #219 versus losing to #129? Is it a straight line-plot, or does it virtually "bottom out" at some point?

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The only part of RPI that you can really control is W/L. Not how the other team plays the rest of the season(SOS factor). In the past, Boyd has done an "intended strength ratings" showing how difficult you scheduled based on most recent seasons' results. Seems he scrapped it this year because it was just too little applicability to the current seasons.

In baseball RPI, home losses count as 1.3 loss -- while road losses count as 0.7 losses(with the inverse being true on wins).

Our trip to Arizona left us 1.3-2.7(the 2 against UCSB were neutral site games -- where an actual 1-1 w/l is used).
Our home series against Holy Cross left us 1.4-2.6.

The further down the losses are -- the worse they look in the "nitty gritty factor" used by the committees to establish host sites and national seeds. We need Arizona to get inside the to 200 -- and we need Holy Cross and Western Carolina to stay there.

I think Memphis stays in the top 50 -- WC gets into the top 100 -- Arizona could easily jump into the top 100 -- and we just need Holy Cross to stay inside the top 200.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by engie

The only part of RPI that you can really control is W/L. Not how the other team plays the rest of the season(SOS factor). In the past, Boyd has done an "intended strength ratings" showing how difficult you scheduled based on most recent seasons' results. Seems he scrapped it this year because it was just too little applicability to the current seasons.

In baseball RPI, home losses count as 1.3 loss -- while road losses count as 0.7 losses(with the inverse being true on wins).

Our trip to Arizona left us 1.3-2.7(the 2 against UCSB were neutral site games -- where an actual 1-1 w/l is used).
Our home series against Holy Cross left us 1.4-2.6.

The further down the losses are -- the worse they look in the "nitty gritty factor" used by the committees to establish host sites and national seeds. We need Arizona to get inside the to 200 -- and we need Holy Cross and Western Carolina to stay there.

I think Memphis stays in the top 50 -- WC gets into the top 100 -- Arizona could easily jump into the top 100 -- and we just need Holy Cross to stay inside the top 200.

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If all this happens, I'd feel pretty good about our hosting chances. Arizona just needs to turn it around, and Holy Cross must play good baseball.

Bottom line- we still are very much in control of our own destiny. Just got to keep playing like we have since Saturday in Athens.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by engie

The only part of RPI that you can really control is W/L. Not how the other team plays the rest of the season(SOS factor). In the past, Boyd has done an "intended strength ratings" showing how difficult you scheduled based on most recent seasons' results. Seems he scrapped it this year because it was just too little applicability to the current seasons.

In baseball RPI, home losses count as 1.3 loss -- while road losses count as 0.7 losses(with the inverse being true on wins).

Our trip to Arizona left us 1.3-2.7(the 2 against UCSB were neutral site games -- where an actual 1-1 w/l is used).
Our home series against Holy Cross left us 1.4-2.6.

The further down the losses are -- the worse they look in the "nitty gritty factor" used by the committees to establish host sites and national seeds. We need Arizona to get inside the to 200 -- and we need Holy Cross and Western Carolina to stay there.

I think Memphis stays in the top 50 -- WC gets into the top 100 -- Arizona could easily jump into the top 100 -- and we just need Holy Cross to stay inside the top 200.

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Ok, so are we supposed to take the opposing team's RPI and multiply it by the appropriate factor? And since we're talking about which losses hurt more, we can ignore the UCSB games, as that would just compare how our road-trip compared to the HC games, not a relevant stat.

So, do we take Arizona's RPI, multiply it by 1.3, then subtract it from our RPI, followed by multiplying HC's RPI by .7 (x 2 for 2 losses) and subtract the sum from our RPI?

ETA - I know that can't be it, but perhaps something relational?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

Ok, so are we supposed to take the opposing team's RPI and multiply it by the appropriate factor? And since we're talking about which losses hurt more, we can ignore the UCSB games, as that would just compare how our road-trip compared to the HC games, not a relevant stat.

So, do we take Arizona's RPI, multiply it by 1.3, then subtract it from our RPI, followed by multiplying HC's RPI by .7 (x 2 for 2 losses) and subtract the sum from our RPI?

ETA - I know that can't be it, but perhaps something relational?

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Correct in that it's not nearly that simple...

RPI is just an accumulation of overall mathematical data. You must have and apply this weighted w/l percentage to every team in the country including your own in order to accurately reflect it -- and it's only good for that "snapshot" in time. By time time you've calculated this using any "common sense" method, someone has played a game somewhere, and there's been a trickle down effect to literally every other team in the country(the 6 degrees of separation rule basically) rendering your data obsolete before you ever published it from an "exact" standpoint. In this, the teams that played the game's RPI is affected hugely, their immediate opponents are affected somewhat notably, their opponents' opponents are affected measurably, although minutely -- and the further you get from the actual matchup, the infinitely smaller the difference(it does make a difference to literally everyone though).

What I've found is that the "SOS factor" of it, while important, is basically immeasurable for the practical reasons I've shown -- unless you are a spreadsheet guru that can automate from online data and don't mind setting 3rd and 4th dimensional analysis -- which, in essence, Boyd and Nolan have both already done for us anyway.

Your own RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' opponents RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.

You can get pretty damn close RPI Hypotheses by figuring current RPI W/L percentage -- and expected future RPI W/L percentage. Multiply both numbers times 1/3 and note the difference in the two numbers. From there, you assume your SOS is a constant(the other 2/3 of the formula which is constantly fluctuating, but unlikely to go up or down too drastically at one time and is much more "slowly moving" in notable terms overall).

EX:
Our current RPI W/L record is: 13.7-11.6
RPI WP: .5415
RPI win/loss effect: .1805

Taking 2 of 3 at home is "break even" in conference play, as is 1 of 3 on the road. Taking 2 of 3 from Arky will not help our RPI much. We'd have to sweep to see a big jumb. But if we took 2 of 3 in Baton Rouge, we'd be in business -- and we could almost quit worrying about RPI being a factor altogether. Still, even if we split these 2 series it will help our SOS -- and that would be enough to move up a couple of spots -- but not enough to make measuring it worthwhile.

Assuming we go 5-2 in the next 7 games, which is winning a midweek, 2-1 against Arky, and 2-1 in Baton Rouge(a tough goal -- but doable), this is how things will look.
Begin RPI: .5546
RPI W/L record in those games: 4.7-2
RPI W/L record overall: 18.4-13.6
RPI WP: .575
RPI win/loss effect: .1917

Improvement: .0112
New RPI: .5658
New current RPI position: 43rd
New position using final RPIs of last season(after regression of conference games for most teams): 24th

With the SOS factor included -- that would put us realistically around 35th currently and on pace to be in the top 20 at the end of the year...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by engie

Correct in that it's not nearly that simple...

RPI is just an accumulation of overall mathematical data. You must have and apply this weighted w/l percentage to every team in the country including your own in order to accurately reflect it -- and it's only good for that "snapshot" in time. By time time you've calculated this using any "common sense" method, someone has played a game somewhere, and there's been a trickle down effect to literally every other team in the country(the 6 degrees of separation rule basically) rendering your data obsolete before you ever published it from an "exact" standpoint. In this, the teams that played the game's RPI is affected hugely, their immediate opponents are affected somewhat notably, their opponents' opponents are affected measurably, although minutely -- and the further you get from the actual matchup, the infinitely smaller the difference(it does make a difference to literally everyone though).

What I've found is that the "SOS factor" of it, while important, is basically immeasurable for the practical reasons I've shown -- unless you are a spreadsheet guru that can automate from online data and don't mind setting 3rd and 4th dimensional analysis -- which, in essence, Boyd and Nolan have both already done for us anyway.

Your own RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' opponents RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.

You can get pretty damn close RPI Hypotheses by figuring current RPI W/L percentage -- and expected future RPI W/L percentage. Multiply both numbers times 1/3 and note the difference in the two numbers. From there, you assume your SOS is a constant(the other 2/3 of the formula which is constantly fluctuating, but unlikely to go up or down too drastically at one time and is much more "slowly moving" in notable terms overall).

EX:
Our current RPI W/L record is: 13.7-11.6
RPI WP: .5415
RPI win/loss effect: .1805

Taking 2 of 3 at home is "break even" in conference play, as is 1 of 3 on the road. Taking 2 of 3 from Arky will not help our RPI much. We'd have to sweep to see a big jumb. But if we took 2 of 3 in Baton Rouge, we'd be in business -- and we could almost quit worrying about RPI being a factor altogether. Still, even if we split these 2 series it will help our SOS -- and that would be enough to move up a couple of spots -- but not enough to make measuring it worthwhile.

Assuming we go 5-2 in the next 7 games, which is winning a midweek, 2-1 against Arky, and 2-1 in Baton Rouge(a tough goal -- but doable), this is how things will look.
Begin RPI: .5546
RPI W/L record in those games: 4.7-2
RPI W/L record overall: 18.4-13.6
RPI WP: .575
RPI win/loss effect: .1917

Improvement: .0112
New RPI: .5658
New current RPI position: 43rd
New position using final RPIs of last season(after regression of conference games for most teams): 24th

With the SOS factor included -- that would put us realistically around 35th currently and on pace to be in the top 20 at the end of the year...

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Wow, that's really interesting.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but essentially a team's RPI is determined based on:
33.3% of what you do.
About .595% (33.3%/56) of how your opponent each game does.
And about .011% (33.3%/around 3136) of how your opponent's opponents do each game.

I know this is hard to predict right now (and depends a good bit on who we beat and where we beat them), but about how many SEC wins would we need for you to feel comfortable about our hosting chances at this point?

I figure 17 regular season SEC wins will get us a host spot if we take care of business OOC, including beating USM & OM in Pearl. Less and we have to win some in the SECT. I'm thinking we could survive split-series-losses at LSU, Auburn & Bama if we win the series vs Arky, OM, Mizzou, TAMU and UT, as well as sweep at least one of those.

To be a national seed, I think we need to win every series at least 2-1 plus sweep at least 1. Or if we lose any series, we'd need to sweep another to make up for it. This is assuming we don't lose any of the 5 remaining OOC games.

All speculation, of course, and impacted by outside factors such as our RPI, which is, of course impacted by our opponents RPI and our opponent's opponent's RPI. To keep it simple, we mostly want the teams we play and beat to win their other games to a point. Where it gets interesting is to wonder where things land if LSU, Vandy, OM, Bama, Auburn, UT or various combinations win enough outside our series to take a national seed away from us, despite a series loss to us.

Would be fun to have an educated guess on all that. An uneducated guess makes me think the only ones that could would be Vandy, LSU or OM.

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Originally Posted by messageboardsuperhero

Wow, that's really interesting.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but essentially a team's RPI is determined based on:
33.3% of what you do.
About .595% (33.3%/56) of how your opponent each game does.
And about .011% (33.3%/around 3136) of how your opponent's opponents do each game.

I know this is hard to predict right now (and depends a good bit on who we beat and where we beat them), but about how many SEC wins would we need for you to feel comfortable about our hosting chances at this point?

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That's correct. And also why SOS is basically not worth trying to calculate practically. While it does matter and can be drastic at times, overall, it's peas in the ocean compared to your own personal WP.

I think 17-13 puts us on the hosting bubble with a decent chance. 18-12 and we're locks to host. 19-11 or better and we can start to discuss a national seed...Doesn't really matter how we get there...

Also, a deep run in the SEC tourney would help -- although it's not a major factor to the committee -- it has the ability to alter RPI enough to make a difference for a borderline team.

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Originally Posted by engie

That's correct. And also why SOS is basically not worth trying to calculate practically. While it does matter and can be drastic at times, overall, it's peas in the ocean compared to your own personal WP.

I think 17-13 puts us on the hosting bubble with a decent chance. 18-12 and we're locks to host. 19-11 or better and we can start to discuss a national seed...Doesn't really matter how we get there...

Also, a deep run in the SEC tourney would help -- although it's not a major factor to the committee -- it has the ability to alter RPI enough to make a difference for a borderline team.

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I thought national seeds were determined before the SECT.

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

I thought national seeds were determined before the SECT.

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They might be determined before the championship game, I believe.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by engie

That's correct. And also why SOS is basically not worth trying to calculate practically. While it does matter and can be drastic at times, overall, it's peas in the ocean compared to your own personal WP.

I think 17-13 puts us on the hosting bubble with a decent chance. 18-12 and we're locks to host. 19-11 or better and we can start to discuss a national seed...Doesn't really matter how we get there...

Also, a deep run in the SEC tourney would help -- although it's not a major factor to the committee -- it has the ability to alter RPI enough to make a difference for a borderline team.

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Good stuff. Thanks.

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

I thought national seeds were determined before the SECT.

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They are determined and released on SEC Tournament Sunday -- generally announced while the championship game is being played, but long after the majority of the tournament has gone on. Then, the rest of the field is announced on Monday directly thereafter...

We practically eliminated ourselves from any chance of getting a national seed by losing several games that we should have won early in the season, plus our abysmal showing in Arizona. Our only remote chance to get back in that race is to win 22+ SEC regular games. Possible? yes. Likely? no.