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That is the minimum number of wins and loses it takes for Lebby to keep his job next year per Steve.
I know the schedule is tough but it is year three and we need to see a massive improvement. I do not think winning at least seven games to show you have made strides as a head coach in year three is asking too much. Plus, we have Arnett as DC now. The defense will not be bottom of the SEC.
I am a Lebby supporter but if he cannot hit that seventh win then I will be completely fine letting him go.
That's a helluva ultimatum to me. 9 sec games and a road big10 game. 6 wins, and I'd feel alright about him
I think that probably comes down to context. If we are in all the games and you have some dumb call or crazy play that is the difference between 6-6/7-5, you probably keep - unless you have the opportunity to grab someone really good.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I agree. There's a lot of nuance in that statement. If we're 6-6 with an Egg Bowl win and a 2 pt loss at Texas and a 3 pt loss at LSU with an SEC home win , he will be safe.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
Anything over 6 and he's without a doubt safe because it means you won 3 SEC games.
QB play gonna have to get alot better before September for that to happen
And our O Line play will have to dramatically improve.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
And I just don't see it. If KT is the starter, I think it's gonna take most of the season before he turns into what we're all hoping to see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
He's going to have to be more comfortable in the pocket. That was his problem in the Egg Bowl and the bowl game. He panicked if someone wasn't open in .8 seconds. I've went back and watched the all 22 a couple of times and we had receivers open(Thompson and Evans were open a bunch) but Kamario never took the time to progress.Quote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
Early in the year we are going to have a lot of quick game with RPO stuff. He's going to have to get acclimated to game speed. I trust Lebby to get that part right. I just don't know that I trust the line to hold up just yet.
If we win 7 games that means we won at least 4 SEC games. I'd be very surprised if we have some kind of ultimatum out there like that.
He also has to stay healthy. Harder to do if he is running around all the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
Sounds familiar unfortunately.**Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
1-15, 7-18, and bone head in-game decisions with unknown or re-thread buddy assistant hires. Not talking about Arnett as he has to be a difference maker to reach 7-5. I see more of the same in '26. This isn't horseshoes and hand grenades. It's time to win in the SEC. Many on here could have only a last-minute win over a pitiful Arkansas team, which had about 200 yards in penalties. Again, 1-15 is not acceptable for any State HC. This is Shira territory.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Lebby is going to face several new coaches next year and a couple of coaches on the hot seat. It is time to show them you can be a legit SEC coach. We out recruit Minnesota by 25 spots. If they roll us like a homeless bum I may be out at that point.
It is interesting that Steve is saying this publicly. I guess one could construe that we are preparing to move on. I would be willing to bet that if we are 2-5 we are going ahead and moving on. He will be a fired coach walking at that point.
Minnesota at their place will be tough early in the year. Teams salivate at the chance to knock off an SEC team. If we can make it past that one, which I think we will, I think we can find a way to 6 or 7. South Carolina in Columbia could be a rough first SEC start for Kamario. In a way, I'm glad he goes on the road to a P4 team before we travel to Columbia.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
Number 1 issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Totally agree. He can't piss away 3 wins like he did this year, next year whatever the win total is.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
I just hope we hire Joe Judge and not Dan.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
Which means our dumbass boosters will hire Dan.
At the end of the day I'm glad that my job isn't riding on Zach Arnett. I've heard he feels like there is a lot of pressure on him. I have a bad feeling this isn't the same dude he was in 2022. I have a feeling he has PTSD after everything that has happened.
We won't hire either of them. I'm interested to see what Brian Hartline looks like in Year 1 at USF. I'm also interested to see if Jerry Mack builds on what he did year 1 at Kennesaw. I may be in a minority, but I don't think Huff is going to fare well at Memphis. I'd honestly make a run at Jedd Fisch. He wants out of Washington so badly that he'd be amenable to our job. Unlike he would've been in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Dan isn't coming back. Period. End of Discussion. He's at UNLV until at least 2028. Cannon is at Bishop Gorman right now and in the 10th grade. One of the main reasons he took that job is so Cannon could go to Gorman.
On Arnett, the fire is still there. It's very much still there. From everything I've heard, we're getting piss and vinegar Arnett once more. I, like you, was worried about what Arnett we would be getting. Everyone I've spoken to says this is the old Arnett. Gruff, pissed off, and doesn't want to associate with anyone.
Brent Vigen is the one we need to hire if we want a chance to get into the top of the league. We need to do what we can to get him here. No more coordinators, no more coaches winning in leagues because they have a talent advantage. It's time for a coach who has consistently won big at lower level schools.
Does he know how to operate in the NIL world? That's the biggest thing I look at these days. Also, is he winning at Montana St because they fund it better than 95% of the FCS?Quote:
Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG
How would he do at a place that funds lower than 65% of their own league?
North Dakota guy that coached at North Dakota St for 15 years after playing there, then at Wyoming and now at Montana St. Would be interesting and likely end up like Harsin did at Auburn
I had emailed Selmon back in November 2023 that he should hire Curt Cignetti. Maybe this time he will listen to me. I will forward the email to remind him my last suggestion turned out pretty good LOL.
If Lebby goes 6-6 against this schedule with 9 SEC games (no Arkansas) and a road P4 game at Minnesota I would be fine with keeping him. We only have 2 OOC games as relativity easy wins. Will have to scratch and claw to get 4 more. 7-5 this Fall to me would be more like 8-4 in the past. How long will the P4 mandate continue with 9 SEC games? Indefinitely?
Probably here to stay if I had a guessQuote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
Some of you loose track of reality. State now has a 9 game SEC schedule, meaning to get to 7 wins they need to beat 4 SEC teams. Now name 4 teams that State will beat. besides who is on the schedule.
only if he could bring Mark Cubans money.Quote:
Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG
That would be nice but we don't get that lucky as State fans.Quote:
Originally Posted by Offshore Dawg
If we beat Minnesota we should have a good season. Beamer has a legit OC now in Kendall. That?s gonna be tough. I actually think we beat Bama. The rumor is DeBoar is softer than Charmin. They have gone back to Mike Shula/Mike Dubose Bama. I also would not be surprised if we are looking at our 7th win vs OM.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Dude, did you watch the team last year? With a subpar defense, and a very poor offensive line we could have won 4 last year. We will be a better team on both sides of the ball next year, but the big questions are did Lebby learn from his game management mistakes and is KT improved during the offseason?Quote:
Originally Posted by Offshore Dawg
Thick, there are a lot of ifs with this team. my question was name the 4 SEC wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by Thick
I think the only “if’s” are the 2 that I mentioned and our offensive line. I think Arnette has enough talent to field a pretty good defense. Of course, our schedule is brutal, but when will a 9 game SEC schedule be easy? I wasn’t trying to be a jerk.
You never really know how good teams are going to be from year to year, but I think it's reasonable to think we have:
- 2 likely wins - ULM, Tennessee Tech
- 5 likely losses - Alabama, @LSU, Oklahoma, @Texas, @Ole Miss
- 5 "swing" games - @Minnesota, @South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Auburn
5-0 in those swing games seems pretty unlikely. The next hire will be the most important in MSU athletic history. We can't go cheap. We need to pay out the ass for a "splash hire" AND have him live up to expectations.
If there's a "next Cignetti" out there, it's probably Vigen. What he's done at Montana State (who has historically been the "little brother" in the state) is outstanding, five years finishing #2, #5, #9, #2, and #1.Quote:
Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG
Yes, Montana State is paying NIL.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
It helps. It would be enough for any remotely competent coach to get Montana State (along with Montana and the Dakotas) into the 24-team bracket more often than not, but Vigen has gone way beyond that. He's proven that he's a great talent identifier, game-planner, and in-game coach.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
You never know, but I think it's likely he would at least win the Mullen/Leach standard and not regularly embarrass us on and off the field like 3 of our last 4 coaches have.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Yeah. Well, my confidence in our boosters making a good hiring decision in football is extremely low to say the least and rightfully so. I had a lot of people tell me that Arnett would never be coming back either and look at who we brought back.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
I don't know why some of our fans in this thread are talking about about Brent Vigen. That's the same level of football that Joe Moorhead was successful at. Personally, I think it's too big of a jump for him. And too big of a risk for MSU to take.
If it were me, I would go after Blake Harrell at East Carolina.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Harrell
That's the kind of resume and the level of football we need to be looking at.
Here's the other thing with Vigen or any coach in this portal era.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
You hire a coach, you expect them to bring some of their players with them. Do we really want to try to win SEC games with Montana State players? Yeah. Didn't think so.
https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...tana-st-oregon
He doesn't ring pay out the butt / splash hire like you also mentioned right above in your post. I think he's a good coach but it's a big jump from FCS and he's never coached at a P4 program. Spent his entire career with Bohl. There are legit concerns how he would be running a P4 program.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
That's not a good comparison. Moorhead 38-13 at Fordham, pretty good record, but in one of the worst FCS conferences, and when he had scholarship players and the rest of the Patriot League was walk-on only. He never made it past the second round of the playoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Vigen is 61-12 in the best (or possibly #2) FCS conference, with only top 10 finishes, and three times in the top 2, including 1 championship
Hard to say that in a thread where you endorsed the East Carolina coach though. Neither Vigen nor Harrell would bring more than a handful of transfer players with them ... but what sitting head coach that we could plausibly hire would?Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
I agree that he's not the "splash hire" I want to see, but I'm pretty sure we could get him (unless a big P4 program snatches him away at the same time), and I would still expect him to win here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
He should be the backup/"safety" candidate in mind.