Finally getting a gambling slate worthy of losing your bankroll. Got tons of "coinflip" games when it comes to moneyline (which objectively is better than betting on the spread). Here are my picks - feel free to argue with any / all. I was up way too early today to fly out of Salt Lake and have a connection in Denver.
Build State's Resume Group:
Southern Miss (+120) @ La Tech
ASU (+114) @ Baylor
USM showed last week they are upper half of the Fun Belt (and App showed they'll be bottom 5. I saw that Lindenwood score and thought USM winning was free money last week). They'll continue to roll and challenge for the conference championship. Glad we got them week 1 and not week 11. The Sun Devils aren't going to win pretty. They are zigging after the game has zagged for a while. Stud WR, 4 different runners capable of a 100 yd game at any time. One of those runners knows to throw to WR1 and his TEs too. Baylor has a shit run defense. I think Arizona State is better at running than Auburn and expect similar bullying as that game.
Tater's a hater group:
Tulane (+310) @ Ole Miss
Memphis (+195) vs. Arkansas
OU (-205) vs. Auburn
I think Tulane and Memphis are both top 25 teams and I love the value. Also I'm betting them every week as a parlay until they play each other or screw up. Ride the hot hand. Have a 50% profit boost sitting on my parlay of these two that bumped to +1100. Also **** Ole Miss. And **** Arkansas for not beating Ole Miss. Also I'm just not moved by the revenge game narrative. I've seen Jackson Arnold in Norman. His team lost a lot.
BIG bets:
Nebraska (+102) vs. Michigan
Texas Tech (+145) @ Utah
Illinois (+154) @ Indiana
Michigan's QB feels like he'll wilt on the road. Did vs. OU. Hunch pick here trusting in Y3 Rhule. I didn't like my week in Utah this week. Pizza sucked. Tortilla boys have played shit competition but have handled it insanely. And I believe in the Altenator from Stark + Ole Bert. I think Indiana is due for a regression. Better QB thrives here.
G6 (get it? it's a dig on the ACC and a commentary about how far you gotta fly to play a conference game)
TCU (-250) vs. SMU
The Las Vegas Dan's (No Wendy's) (-162) @ Miami (OH)
UNT (-105) @ Army
NC State (+110) @ Duke
TCU has a top 10 QB and SMU has regressed. I think they win this rivalry game handily and don't hate laying the points. I'm #GamblingWithDan all year. Don't like the early kick, but I believe in khaki shorts. UNT might be the best G5 team. They've got the Cam Ward / John Mateer whisperer. Great test there. Army is getting inflated after beating KSU imo. And NC State has a kid that will start on a playoff team next year, be a first round pick, and probably be a heisman finalist. Hes the best QB you haven't watched. Knock on him is he's thin for his frame so I'm concerned for his health. However, NC State is what I call my Louisville pick this year. I find a team that regardless of matchup - I bet them till they lose because they are entertaining and have a soft winnable schedule. It doesn't feel like Duke is quite there but they did take positive momentum at the end of the Tulane loss.
The lotto ticket: I threw these 12 games + Iowa ML on a $5 to win $90k. If I'm right - I'll pay a lot of money for some biscuits and gravy next weekend.
The How is this even money parlay:
Cal (-500) @ San Diego State
UConn (-1350) vs. Ball State
USC (-700) vs. fakeMSU
Washington (-1450) vs. Wazzu
Mizz (-535) vs. SCar
State (-2100) vs. NIU
GT (-2800) vs. Temple
Altogether +102 odds.
Ok the answer is easy: Heavy favorites moneyline parlays are a suckers bet. But it's fun so **** it. Cal has an elite QB. Ball State is bottom 5 G5. Michigan State is bottom 5 B18. Wazzu is pathetic. SCar scares me a bit but Mizzou has looked soooooo good. If State loses I'll be mad about other things, not the parlay. GT was the topping to push it positive.
My top bet: ASU +114 @ Baylor. Think they're getting the lost to State treatment and will play angry this week and have 300+ rushing yards.
Win total watch:
Liberty U9.5 Wins (+105)
State O3.5 Wins (-160)
ND U10.5 Wins ✅
