Potential Opponent Matchups-Pt 2

I'll preface this by saying I think it is probably down to 2 teams at this point of who we'll play, UCONN or Creighton, and both are terrible matchups for us. But we'll still breakdown the other teams on the off chance that we get another one. I'm also not going to break down Memphis because I don't think we'll get a 1st round rematch. Committee usually doesn't like doing that.


Creighton- As stated, I think it's basically a coin flip on if we'll play Creighton or UCONN at this point. Also stated, Creighton isn't a good matchup for us. Doug McDermott is a seasoned tournament coach, they shoot the 3 ball well at times, and we have no answer from Kalkbrenner. Ryan Kalkbrenner is who their offense is going to go through. We don't have anyone who can match his mix of strength and size. I would honestly consider starting Murphy if we draw them in Rd. 1. Steven Ashworth is their PG and their volume shooter. Good news, he doesn't shoot the ball well away from home and he's shot them out of some games this year. If they're hitting their 3s, then it's over. The only saving grace for us may be that they get a bit 3 pt happy at times and forget they have Kalkbrenner inside. Not really a deep bench, Fedor Zudic comes off the bench and plays about 10/mpg for them. Here's my guess at how we'll match up:

Steven Ashworth-Hubbard
Jamiya Neal-Kugel
Ryan Kalkbrenner-Nwoko/Murphy
Jackson McAndrew-Matthews
Jasen Green-Melendez


Baylor- This would be a dream matchup for us. I don't think the Big 12 is very good this year and they've been average in that conference. We'd have a definite height advantage over them and they really struggle teams who can shoot it. VJ Edgecombe and Norchad Ormier are kind of their two headed monster. I just think we'd be able to handle them and kill them on the boards. They also aren't very deep as Jeremy Roach is really the only bench player that plays significant minutes.

Robert Wright III-Hubbard
Jayden Nunn-Melendez
Norchad Ormier-Matthews
VJ Edgecombe-Kugel
Jalen Celestine-Nwoko

I didn't realize how bad UConn is defensively. They're a good offensive team (14th kenpom), but 94th in defense. No sec teams were that bad this season defensively. I think we will give them problems too

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msstate7

I didn't realize how bad UConn is defensively. They're a good offensive team (14th kenpom), but 94th in defense. No sec teams were that bad this season defensively. I think we will give them problems too

---

We can give them problems. Solo Ball tends to get in foul trouble early in games and that forces them to go to the bench a little earlier than Hurley likes.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

We can give them problems. Solo Ball tends to get in foul trouble early in games and that forces them to go to the bench a little earlier than Hurley likes.

---

It's gonna come down to if Hubbard can get the foul bait early and we don't get dicked by SEC refs at the end. It's not SEC but the UConn Duke matchup is gonna be pushed. So at least we're prepared for the ****ening.

We need 30+ from Hubbard, 15+ from Key/Nwoko, 25+ from Kugel/RJ/Harris, 10+ from Jones/Matthews.

That recipe gets us to 80 and we'd beat most teams if we can pull it off. If if if if.

We need Josh Hubbard to walk away from this weekend as hated as James Harden is. If that's the case then we had a great weekend. He's very very difficult to guard. Let's flip this and frame it like Rorscach. We're not stuck in here with them, they're stuck in here with us.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tater

It's gonna come down to if Hubbard can get the foul bait early and we don't get dicked by SEC refs at the end. It's not SEC but the UConn Duke matchup is gonna be pushed. So at least we're prepared for the ****ening.

We need 30+ from Hubbard, 15+ from Key/Nwoko, 25+ from Kugel/RJ/Harris, 10+ from Jones/Matthews.

That recipe gets us to 80 and we'd beat most teams if we can pull it off. If if if if.

We need Josh Hubbard to walk away from this weekend as hated as James Harden is. If that's the case then we had a great weekend. He's very very difficult to guard. Let's flip this and frame it like Rorscach. We're not stuck in here with them, they're stuck in here with us.

---

And your recipe is what we'll need. The good news, UCONN and Creighton both are subject to let one guy go off on them. Sears went off for 27 on them

You can move the four around for Florida/Auburn however you'd like but it's pretty set in stone imo that this is what the 8/9 will be. UConn is the only moveable one of the other four.

1. Auburn vs. 8. Creighton / 9. Baylor
1. Florida vs. 8. Marquette / 9. New Mexico
1. Duke vs. 8. UConn / 9. State
1. Houston vs. 8. Memphis / 9. Georgia

They want Memphis vs. Houston R2 which sticks us as pretty much guaranteed in duke's unless Jerry Palm is right and we get a 7 seed.

I want to believe but nothing I've seen the last two months will allow it.

Baylor is the best matchup for us but it still will be a tight game.

Both teams rank virtually the same in offensive and defensive efficiency (average points scored/allowed per possession). But we average three or four more possessions per game.

Not a complete picture of course just focusing on a couple of metrics but overall still think we win it in a close one.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tater

unless Jerry Palm is right and we get a 7 seed.

---

His bracket has us as a 7 with Tennessee as the corresponding 2. I thought there was no way that would happen, but if he's right that the SEC will get 2 2s, 2 7s, and 2 10s, it's unavoidable to set up an SEC vs SEC in the round of 32.

I still think they'll avoid conference matchups before the Sweet 16 if they can, but if the SEC gets 13 or 14 teams in, that may just not work out.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

His bracket has us as a 7 with Tennessee as the corresponding 2. I thought there was no way that would happen, but if he's right that the SEC will get 2 2s, 2 7s, and 2 10s, it's unavoidable to set up an SEC vs SEC in the round of 32.

I still think they'll avoid conference matchups before the Sweet 16 if they can, but if the SEC gets 13 or 14 teams in, that may just not work out.

---

They'll move teams up/down a seed in the 5-12 range to avoid this. It makes the most sense to bump us down to 8 and Mizzou up to 6. But Vandy to 11 instead could be in play.

So we likely will be 0-1 under Lunardi or 1-1 under Palm before going home.

I'll take the Baylor win and a respectable loss to TN and call it a decent season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tater

It's gonna come down to if Hubbard can get the foul bait early and we don't get dicked by SEC refs at the end. It's not SEC but the UConn Duke matchup is gonna be pushed. So at least we're prepared for the ****ening.

We need 30+ from Hubbard, 15+ from Key/Nwoko, 25+ from Kugel/RJ/Harris, 10+ from Jones/Matthews.

That recipe gets us to 80 and we'd beat most teams if we can pull it off. If if if if.

We need Josh Hubbard to walk away from this weekend as hated as James Harden is. If that's the case then we had a great weekend. He's very very difficult to guard. Let's flip this and frame it like Rorscach. We're not stuck in here with them, they're stuck in here with us.

---

Yes, we can beat UConn with the 80 recipe. IF we can get 80. We're certainly capable. We just never know which team we're going to get.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tater

You can move the four around for Florida/Auburn however you'd like but it's pretty set in stone imo that this is what the 8/9 will be. UConn is the only moveable one of the other four.


1. Auburn vs. 8. Creighton / 9. Baylor
1. Florida vs. 8. Marquette / 9. New Mexico
1. Duke vs. 8. UConn / 9. State
1. Houston vs. 8. Memphis / 9. Georgia

They want Memphis vs. Houston R2 which sticks us as pretty much guaranteed in duke's unless Jerry Palm is right and we get a 7 seed.

---

Jerry Palm is one of the worst bracketologist.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BigDawg81

Jerry Palm is one of the worst bracketologist.

---

Ehh. It's hard to be good when the committee makes it up every year. I just trust the aggregate. But he is the only one that doesn't have us 8/9.

UConn can and will beat us by 80 if we are misfortunate enough to play them

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DDawg

UConn can and will beat us by 80 if we are misfortunate enough to play them

---

This is not 2023 or 2024 UCONN. This is Danny’s most underperforming team. They are as beatable as they have been in the last 3 years.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

This is not 2023 or 2024 UCONN. This is Danny’s most underperforming team. They are as beatable as they have been in the last 3 years.

---

And we are about as beatable as we have been in the last 3 years which is to say very beatable..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DDawg

And we are about as beatable as we have been in the last 3 years which is to say very beatable..

---

Look if you want to be negative then fine. But just don't watch or post. Maybe it's stupid to think we got a shot (I actually have sat down and watched these teams multiple times so I do think we have a shot), but hell we're in the gd thing. We'll be one of the last 64 teams remaining when things tip off on Thursday. But hell man, if you're going to be negative about it then there's no reason to watch. If we happen to win you'll just bitch that we're gonna get the killed the next game and if we lose you're gonna say you told everyone. Like, just don't even bother watching.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

Look if you want to be negative then fine. But just don't watch or post. Maybe it's stupid to think we got a shot (I actually have sat down and watched these teams multiple times so I do think we have a shot), but hell we're in the gd thing. We'll be one of the last 64 teams remaining when things tip off on Thursday. But hell man, if you're going to be negative about it then there's no reason to watch. If we happen to win you'll just bitch that we're gonna get the killed the next game and if we lose you're gonna say you told everyone. Like, just don't even bother watching.

---

Preach Steve preach. That's exactly how I feel reading the vibes here. **** em. I'm enjoying the **** out of this week. This is the best basketball week of the year, if you can't get up for it then **** you.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tater

Preach Steve preach. That's exactly how I feel reading the vibes here. **** em. I'm enjoying the **** out of this week. This is the best basketball week of the year, if you can't get up for it then **** you.

---

I mean I get we've underachieved after people raised their expectations after Memphis, but we're in the tournament. You have to be in it to win a game. And whoever we get is who we get. There's no such thing as easy teams at this point.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

Baylor- This would be a dream matchup for us.

---

Hope you're right!

Well we got the dream matchup. Now we have to capitalize