Baseball is in a good spot right now

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03-31-2024, 12:00 AM
Todd4State

Baseball is in a good spot right now

Even if we lose to Florida's ace tomorrow we are going to be no worse than 4-5. Most fans said that they would be pretty happy with that record after three weeks. Now as I type this we have a chance to potentially be 5-4. All of this is being done without Dohm and I can make a strong argument that we should have a better record now than we do. Last year at this time we were 0-9 and had been run ruled multiple times. Right now we're going toe to toe with some of the best in the SEC and are more than holding our own.

Pitching has been the story. We are 8th in team ERA but that has been a massive improvement from 2023 to 2024. I would have been fine with an ERA of 5.00. Right now it's 4.16. The biggest thing is figuring out who our closer is and where Nate Dohm fits back in as well as where Nolan Stevens fits in. Sunday will be interesting to see who we throw. The bullpen has been solid overall but no one has really taken the mantle of closer. I think we need to give Logan Forsythe a chance at least in a low leverage situation in SEC play to see how he looks. I'm not sure why he hasn't really gotten a chance as he has 7K's in 3 IP with 1 walk and 0 hits allowed. If someone like Siary, Ligon, or Loftin perform well then it gives us some flexibility as to how we could use Dohm. We also could just start Stevens and see how he does. It will be interesting to see how we handle it. I don't really like Auger as our closer but I like him and Tyler Davis as set up guys. We need to get Gavin Black back on track too. Tyson Hardin has to be in the closer discussion as well.

A big reason we've been holding our own is our offense has been solid for most of the year except for OOC play. We have a couple of weak spots at third base and catcher but the rest of the team is hitting over .260 and most are hitting well over .300. And now the power is starting to show up. We should end up somewhat similar statistically as we did last year.

We're also one of the top fielding teams in the SEC as well ending that narrative as well.

So we're not only in great shape as far as the SEC Tournament goes. We have a very real chance to host a regional or be a two seed somewhere. At least that's what we look like based on my eye test. Once Dohm comes back I think we'll figure out whatever we are going to do and we'll be better. If we get our RPI into the top 35 I think we get in with 12 SEC wins. We're at 44 right now. We get 13 SEC wins then I think we're in as a 3 seed or maybe a 2 seed. The next two weekends are HUGE for MSU. Georgia has struggled on the road this year and Auburn has struggled in SEC play. Really need to win those two series and then go into the second half in a good spot. Sweeps would be even nicer.
03-31-2024, 01:40 AM
Cooterpoot

We had nowhere to go but up. SEC is a grind, so I refuse to get excited losing two of three SEC series to start the conference especially with LSU not playing well. But, they are a couple rough road series and we look like a regional team. Not sure about hosting yet. Long way to go still and lots of things to figure out with 3B and pitching. Check back in about a month.
03-31-2024, 01:51 AM
The Federalist Engineer

4-5 is Three more wins than I expected at this time.

But more important than the W/L result, is the competitiveness versus Super Regional and Omaha contenders. There have been no Run-Rule loses or ridiculous 20 run loses. Being 4-5 versus Super Regional quality opponents with 6 games played on the Road means you don't suck.

Baring something extreme changing in the lineup, MSU has a very good shot to host a regional.

Good things that could happen:

(1) Dohm gets healthy
(2) Loftin pitches to pedigree
(3) Stevens bounces back
(4) Cupp, Chester, or Downs to 3B
(5) Hines back to his norm production (already happening)
(4) Parker continues to find optimal roles for Siary, Hardin, Auger, Dotson, Ligon, Davis
03-31-2024, 05:46 AM
99jc

When we are happy with 4-5 record shows how far we have fallen with this great leader we have. But we have improved since last year tremendously!
03-31-2024, 05:55 AM
the_real_MSU_is_us

Quote:

Originally Posted by 99jc

When we are happy with 4-5 record shows how far we have fallen with this great leader we have. But we have improved since last year tremendously!

4-5 vs top 10 teams and only 3 of those games at home = we are easily a top 15 team. That's perfectly fine. If a top 15 team gets hot i nthe postseason they can win a Natty. If a top 3 team gets cold they will loose a Super Regional. That's baseball. The key is to be good enough overall and pray you get hot
03-31-2024, 07:23 AM
TNDawg35

Quote:

Originally Posted by 99jc

When we are happy with 4-5 record shows how far we have fallen with this great leader we have. But we have improved since last year tremendously!

The only team that can say they are elite in the sec right now is Arkansas. They are in a different world. We are right there with everyone. I saw a graph on Twitter yest where after last night we are like 5th in the nation with quad 1 wins with 8.

We all knew we had to survive the first set of our schedule. We have done it so far. Win your home series/ don’t get swept on the road. We are gonna upset someone on the road. You can book it. It may be today, hell who knows. We are a good team.
03-31-2024, 08:14 AM
basedog

Being 5-4 after today is what a good spot would be for us. No doubt we have out played Florida who is still say is overrated, good but not number 6 in the Nation with a 15-11 record. This comment isn't a knock for us winning yesterday or our team. I do think we are a top 20 team now. Lsu and Auburn have issues right now, win today and it moves us up in the upper half of the Sec.

I can't ever recall a more balance Sec league with around 10 or 11 teams this year so far. I don't think 10 teams will make the Ncaa tourney, I only care about Msu!
03-31-2024, 09:06 AM
Homedawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

Even if we lose to Florida's ace tomorrow we are going to be no worse than 4-5. Most fans said that they would be pretty happy with that record after three weeks. Now as I type this we have a chance to potentially be 5-4. All of this is being done without Dohm and I can make a strong argument that we should have a better record now than we do. Last year at this time we were 0-9 and had been run ruled multiple times. Right now we're going toe to toe with some of the best in the SEC and are more than holding our own.

Pitching has been the story. We are 8th in team ERA but that has been a massive improvement from 2023 to 2024. I would have been fine with an ERA of 5.00. Right now it's 4.16. The biggest thing is figuring out who our closer is and where Nate Dohm fits back in as well as where Nolan Stevens fits in. Sunday will be interesting to see who we throw. The bullpen has been solid overall but no one has really taken the mantle of closer. I think we need to give Logan Forsythe a chance at least in a low leverage situation in SEC play to see how he looks. I'm not sure why he hasn't really gotten a chance as he has 7K's in 3 IP with 1 walk and 0 hits allowed. If someone like Siary, Ligon, or Loftin perform well then it gives us some flexibility as to how we could use Dohm. We also could just start Stevens and see how he does. It will be interesting to see how we handle it. I don't really like Auger as our closer but I like him and Tyler Davis as set up guys. We need to get Gavin Black back on track too. Tyson Hardin has to be in the closer discussion as well.

A big reason we've been holding our own is our offense has been solid for most of the year except for OOC play. We have a couple of weak spots at third base and catcher but the rest of the team is hitting over .260 and most are hitting well over .300. And now the power is starting to show up. We should end up somewhat similar statistically as we did last year.

We're also one of the top fielding teams in the SEC as well ending that narrative as well.

So we're not only in great shape as far as the SEC Tournament goes. We have a very real chance to host a regional or be a two seed somewhere. At least that's what we look like based on my eye test. Once Dohm comes back I think we'll figure out whatever we are going to do and we'll be better. If we get our RPI into the top 35 I think we get in with 12 SEC wins. We're at 44 right now. We get 13 SEC wins then I think we're in as a 3 seed or maybe a 2 seed. The next two weekends are HUGE for MSU. Georgia has struggled on the road this year and Auburn has struggled in SEC play. Really need to win those two series and then go into the second half in a good spot. Sweeps would be even nicer.

We aren't getting in w 12 wins. Not a guarantee at 13. 14 yes.
03-31-2024, 09:08 AM
Homedawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer

4-5 is Three more wins than I expected at this time.

But more important than the W/L result, is the competitiveness versus Super Regional and Omaha contenders. There have been no Run-Rule loses or ridiculous 20 run loses. Being 4-5 versus Super Regional quality opponents with 6 games played on the Road means you don't suck.

Baring something extreme changing in the lineup, MSU has a very good shot to host a regional.

Good things that could happen:

(1) Dohm gets healthy
(2) Loftin pitches to pedigree
(3) Stevens bounces back
(4) Cupp, Chester, or Downs to 3B
(5) Hines back to his norm production (already happening)
(4) Parker continues to find optimal roles for Siary, Hardin, Auger, Dotson, Ligon, Davis

Downs isn't a sec inf. Give up a lot defensively.
03-31-2024, 09:16 AM
KOdawg1

I would've taken a 4-5 start 3 weeks ago.

Backside to this is we have to take care of business in the coming weeks. Need to win series vs. UGA, OM, and Auburn. Time to make hay.
03-31-2024, 09:44 AM
preachermatt83

Quote:

Originally Posted by KOdawg1

I would've taken a 4-5 start 3 weeks ago.

Backside to this is we have to take care of business in the coming weeks. Need to win series vs. UGA, OM, and Auburn. Time to make hay.

We need to win all three of those with one being a sweep. Say we lose today, win 2 against uga and om and sweep auburn that puts us at 11-7. That gets us too looking very sweet with missouri still left on the schedule. So then win 1 at vandy, 2 at home against bama, get swept in Fayetteville and then sweep missouri. That has us at 17-13 and EASILY hosting a regional. I don’t see us going below 14 wins. I say we finish 15-15 or 16-14. And I’ll be tickled to death with that.
03-31-2024, 09:54 AM
parabrave

When we get more consistent hitting from the btm of the order and more consistent "timely" hitting from batters not named Dakota we will be at or near the top of the SEC.
03-31-2024, 10:46 AM
sandjunky

1 game ahead of where I predicted going into the rubber match- I?ll take it
03-31-2024, 11:39 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

When we get more consistent hitting from the btm of the order and more consistent "timely" hitting from batters not named Dakota we will be at or near the top of the SEC.

We are hitting .338 with runners in scoring position (2nd best in the SEC) and .667 with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs (8th in the SEC).

In SEC play we are a second best .386 with runners in scoring position and sixth best .615 with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

We are getting timely hits. We've had a couple of games where we didn't , but that's baseball.
03-31-2024, 11:48 AM
State82

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

We are getting timely hits. We've had a couple of games where we didn't , but that's baseball.

Yeah those numbers are nothing to sneeze at. Just need a shut-down closer and everything would fall into place.
03-31-2024, 12:50 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Homedawg

Downs isn't a sec inf. Give up a lot defensively.

Right he's not an infielder.
03-31-2024, 12:51 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Homedawg

We aren't getting in w 12 wins. Not a guarantee at 13. 14 yes.

That's my target for us is get to 14 wins, as loaded as the sec is this year 12 or 13 won't get it done. I'm hoping we get to 15+
03-31-2024, 12:54 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

We are hitting .338 with runners in scoring position (2nd best in the SEC) and .667 with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs (8th in the SEC).

In SEC play we are a second best .386 with runners in scoring position and sixth best .615 with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

We are getting timely hits. We've had a couple of games where we didn't , but that's baseball.

Man I've tried telling people this that have been calling us soft. When you hit with risp and with 2 outs like we have you are not soft, you're mentally tough!
03-31-2024, 02:42 PM
ArrowDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

Even if we lose to Florida's ace tomorrow we are going to be no worse than 4-5. Most fans said that they would be pretty happy with that record after three weeks. Now as I type this we have a chance to potentially be 5-4. All of this is being done without Dohm and I can make a strong argument that we should have a better record now than we do. Last year at this time we were 0-9 and had been run ruled multiple times. Right now we're going toe to toe with some of the best in the SEC and are more than holding our own.

Pitching has been the story. We are 8th in team ERA but that has been a massive improvement from 2023 to 2024. I would have been fine with an ERA of 5.00. Right now it's 4.16. The biggest thing is figuring out who our closer is and where Nate Dohm fits back in as well as where Nolan Stevens fits in. Sunday will be interesting to see who we throw. The bullpen has been solid overall but no one has really taken the mantle of closer. I think we need to give Logan Forsythe a chance at least in a low leverage situation in SEC play to see how he looks. I'm not sure why he hasn't really gotten a chance as he has 7K's in 3 IP with 1 walk and 0 hits allowed. If someone like Siary, Ligon, or Loftin perform well then it gives us some flexibility as to how we could use Dohm. We also could just start Stevens and see how he does. It will be interesting to see how we handle it. I don't really like Auger as our closer but I like him and Tyler Davis as set up guys. We need to get Gavin Black back on track too. Tyson Hardin has to be in the closer discussion as well.

A big reason we've been holding our own is our offense has been solid for most of the year except for OOC play. We have a couple of weak spots at third base and catcher but the rest of the team is hitting over .260 and most are hitting well over .300. And now the power is starting to show up. We should end up somewhat similar statistically as we did last year.

We're also one of the top fielding teams in the SEC as well ending that narrative as well.

So we're not only in great shape as far as the SEC Tournament goes. We have a very real chance to host a regional or be a two seed somewhere. At least that's what we look like based on my eye test. Once Dohm comes back I think we'll figure out whatever we are going to do and we'll be better. If we get our RPI into the top 35 I think we get in with 12 SEC wins. We're at 44 right now. We get 13 SEC wins then I think we're in as a 3 seed or maybe a 2 seed. The next two weekends are HUGE for MSU. Georgia has struggled on the road this year and Auburn has struggled in SEC play. Really need to win those two series and then go into the second half in a good spot. Sweeps would be even nicer.

Well, all I saw is a team lacking mental fortitude that choked away two games and blew a series they should have won against an overrated Florida team. We may be better than the last two years, but only marginally enough to make it into a road regional and end our season there.
03-31-2024, 03:55 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArrowDawg

Well, all I saw is a team lacking mental fortitude that choked away two games and blew a series they should have won against an overrated Florida team. We may be better than the last two years, but only marginally enough to make it into a road regional and end our season there.

We'll see. I saw a team that needs to figure out the closer spot and overextend guys because their ace is out temporarily.
03-31-2024, 03:58 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

We'll see. I saw a team that needs to figure out the closer spot and overextend guys because their ace is out temporarily.

Yeah not having a closer is our biggest issue. It cost us today and Friday an a couple others. The offense and defense and starters and middle relief are doing their job. No Closer is costing us.
03-31-2024, 05:20 PM
BeardoMSU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

We'll see. I saw a team that needs to figure out the closer spot and overextend guys because their ace is out temporarily.

100%, Todd!
03-31-2024, 05:39 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Yeah not having a closer is our biggest issue. It cost us today and Friday an a couple others. The offense and defense and starters and middle relief are doing their job. No Closer is costing us.

And no Dohm. We're overextending our bullpen some because he isn't there.
03-31-2024, 05:46 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

And no Dohm. We're overextending our bullpen some because he isn't there.

Yeah it sure looks that way but even still our middle guys are shoving it and getting it to the 9th. Toughest 3 outs in baseball and you know it well because if memory serves your uncle was a closer
04-01-2024, 03:08 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Yeah it sure looks that way but even still our middle guys are shoving it and getting it to the 9th. Toughest 3 outs in baseball and you know it well because if memory serves your uncle was a closer

Yes he was! He was actually more of a relief ace I would say because he closed, he could set up or they would let him go 3-4 innings if needed. This was the 1970's though so it was a different era. He told me he hurt himself closing out both games of a double header against the Phillies. You would never see that today. And if you did it would be all over social media.
04-01-2024, 09:05 AM
Johnson85

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

We'll see. I saw a team that needs to figure out the closer spot and overextend guys because their ace is out temporarily.

Yea, I didn't see us choke yesterday. Friday maybe, but yesterday just looked like we were on the road in the SEC without a true closer.

I am on the bandwagon at this point. Certainly plenty of season left for things to go wrong and it's possible we are just hot the last few weekends and the team we saw in non-conference is closer to reality, but as of now, I'm convinced we're a regional team.