On basketball improvement...

Margins: Years 3, 2, 1
Vs best team in the SEC: NA, +11, +35&+25
2nd best: +20&+4, +22&+10, +30 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat Arky at home this year...
3rd best: +4, +20&+21, +32&+8 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat aTm on the road this year...
4th best: +6&+6, +7, +17&-6 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat Ole Miss both home and away this year...
5th best: -6, +4, +42 ----- got over the hump against LSU....
6th best: +6, +19, +25&+16 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat Georgia this year...

Average margins against the top half of a league that bottomed out in 2012 and is rebounding in a big way right now:
current - +5.71PPG** With Kentucky to go, which will probably inflate this number slightly
2014 - +14.25PPG
2013 - +22.2PPG

So -- we've been in every game against the top half of the league and I believe led in the second half of every one of these games sans @ Bud Walton. We've got to learn to finish games -- no doubt. Which is why I said before that we play like a young team -- by not finishing games and dumb, unforced turnovers.

I understand the argument of "there's been improvement but not enough -- it's year 3" -- and I will agree that Ray is a year behind where he needs to be at this point in time. This team is what last year's team should have been IMO...

agree-we have improved. We start a SR.3 jrs and Soph. Lot's of experience-all have started since they were Freshmen except Roq. So they should be able to play with other teams. What upsets Me is the turnovers and the inability to run a simple inbound play. I wish Ray could Coach better at the end of games. He needs to go and look at how we used to run screens for Super D and do that for Ready. I'm sure Richard would show Him. I would like for Chicken and Ware to run a 2 man game. The Hell with the NIT-next year we should be in the Big Dance.

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Originally Posted by tcdog70

Hell with the NIT-next year we should be in the Big Dance.

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Agreed. I'm disappointed in no NIT this year -- and will be disappointed if we aren't dancing next year...

Basically we had nowhere to go but up. We have improved from rock bottom of the league to mid-bottom half of the league. Impressive.***

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Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg

Basically we had nowhere to go but up. We have improved from rock bottom of the league to mid-bottom half of the league. Impressive.***

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We could've stayed where we were. We didn't.

The league has gotten better -- and we could have beaten every single team we've played outside of the bad early defeat to UF -- and also could have beaten every team in the top half of the league. This team is very close to being an upper half of the league team -- which now means contending for NCAA births. It's not hard for teams that bring back as much as we will next year along with what we're bringing in to make a 6-8 PPG improvement. We apply that jump to this year -- and we win 11 of the last 12 SEC games we've played = 11-3 in SEC play right now and 20-7 overall -- and if Ready and Sword were healthy from the beginning -- possibly more like 22-5.

This team is on the brink of being what we want it to be...which was my point...

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Originally Posted by tcdog70

agree-we have improved. We start a SR.3 jrs and Soph. Lot's of experience-all have started since they were Freshmen except Roq. So they should be able to play with other teams. What upsets Me is the turnovers and the inability to run a simple inbound play. I wish Ray could Coach better at the end of games. He needs to go and look at how we used to run screens for Super D and do that for Ready. I'm sure Richard would show Him. I would like for Chicken and Ware to run a 2 man game. The Hell with the NIT-next year we should be in the Big Dance.

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Agree with all of this. There is no doubt that our players are playing better basketball than they have in the past two years, but they should be given their experience and maturity. We play pretty good defense, but that's easy to coach when your players aren't as capable on the other end of the court. With all this experience and effort, we're still struggling to get to .500.

Why are we struggling to get there? Turnovers and shooting. Those are areas that should be correctable with these players through coaching, and those areas are not being addressed with the current staff. Can Ray get there? Possibly, but it's obviously not something in his bag today or we would be doing it.

We are addressing the talent disparity, which should get us back to competitive in 2-3 years, but then are we back in the same spot we were where we have a recruiting machine that teaches defense first and has no skill at coaching the more technical aspects of the game? Is it going to take 2-3 years after that to get the new players enough experience to produce the way the current crop has?

It sounds like back to the future to me, and it's going to take a while to get there. Our current trajectory is to take a few years to get to mediocre. That's not my idea of commitment to winning, which is what I expect from MSU leadership.

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Originally Posted by engie

The league has gotten better -- and we could have beaten every single team we've played outside of the bad early defeat to UF -- and also could have beaten every team in the top half of the league. This team is very close to being an upper half of the league team -- which now means contending for NCAA births. It's not hard for teams that bring back as much as we will next year along with what we're bringing in to make a 6-8 PPG improvement. We apply that jump to this year -- and we win 11 of the last 12 SEC games we've played = 11-3 in SEC play right now and 20-7 overall -- and if Ready and Sword were healthy from the beginning -- possibly more like 22-5.

This team is on the brink of being what we want it to be...which was my point...

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I'm not really sold that the league is so much better. I think that the dissolution of the Big East and the major conference realignments year after year have kind of leveled the playing field slightly for everyone. There is still not much separation between teams in our conference outside of Kentucky. Every single team on our schedule (-UK) is pretty much the same expectation for me: win at home, compete on the road. We might as well be playing the same team over and over again as far as I'm concerned.

The way I see it, Ole Miss is benefitting from a weak conference. Doesn't matter who they play, its a close/sloppy classic SEC game and they've pulled most of them out in the end. Finishing games is the difference in this conference.

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Originally Posted by chef dixon

I'm not really sold that the league is so much better. I think that the dissolution of the Big East and the major conference realignments year after year have kind of leveled the playing field slightly for everyone. There is still not much separation between teams in our conference outside of Kentucky. Every single team on our schedule (-UK) is pretty much the same expectation for me: win at home, compete on the road. We might as well be playing the same team over and over again as far as I'm concerned.

The way I see it, Ole Miss is benefitting from a weak conference. Doesn't matter who they play, its a close/sloppy classic SEC game and they've pulled most of them out in the end. Finishing games is the difference in this conference.

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According to Warran Nolan the SEC is ever so marginally better this year. Close enough to call it the same.

2014 .5516 RPI (123-52 Non-Conf DI)
2015 .5610 RPI (121-51 Non-Conf DI, so far)

At this point, the 'make or break' year for Ray is probably going to be 2016-2017. A lot of people aren't going to like that, but I think it's clear Ray will get next year. And our chances of making at least the NIT will be pretty good next year, which will give him at least the following year.

Our ability to continue having success in 2016-2017 will be big for him. If we make the NIT next year, then slide back to a 15-win team, I wouldn't be surprised at all if a change is made, and I think all would certainly agree it would be time at that point.

Personally, I think making the NCAA Tournament should be the goal next year, and anything short of that will be disappointing and extremely frustrating. I think just about the whole fanbase would be on board with a change at that point.

And honestly, I think most would be ok with a change now, but I just don't see it happening. I like Ray, and I still think he can be successful here, but we definitely have to see big improvements next year.

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Originally Posted by engie

Agreed. I'm disappointed in no NIT this year -- and will be disappointed if we aren't dancing next year...

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The problem is that not being in the NIT this year makes it hard to believe we will make the jump from losing record to ncaa at-large quality team with the same core who will be seniors.

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Originally Posted by engie

This team is on the brink of being what we want it to be...which was my point...

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Not that I necessarily disagree, but the improvement we've seen can easily just be attributed to having starting 3 players freshmen in year one to the same three players as juniors in year 3. Add in the fact that we basically did not have a full team for the first year, and still had to deal with a ton of injuries in year two (although even year 3 has had injury issues), and it's not clear that Ray has done anything more than avoid making the players worse as they get older and healthier. A competent coach and experienced players can easily gets you to the middle of this SEC, but it's much harder to take the next step. Ray could make a jump next year; or maybe he continues to progress next year, plateaus when he relies on younger but better talent, and then takes the step another year or two down the road with that talent. Or Ray (or really the team) could make marginal improvements next year as we are benefit from 3 seniors starters, get to around 500 in the SEC, and then take a big step back to start the process over with new young players.

The good news is that if he does flop after next year, his recruiting looks to have improved enough that he will leave the next guy with at least young talent equivalent to Ware, Thomas, and Sword, so we won't have to start from scratch with the rebuilding process.

we're getting better at losing. hooray!!!!

He seems to be a good guy and no I'm not a huge Stans fan either. But at the end of the day, I don't watch and I don't care and as a fan that's the ultimate measuring stick to me.

And I did use to care by the way. I use to know every player, everything. Now, I couldn't pick IJ Ready out of a lineup. I honestly couldn't. My passion for State basketball is dead and I'd like to have it back.

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Originally Posted by Johnson85

Not that I necessarily disagree, but the improvement we've seen can easily just be attributed to having starting 3 players freshmen in year one to the same three players as juniors in year 3. Add in the fact that we basically did not have a full team for the first year, and still had to deal with a ton of injuries in year two (although even year 3 has had injury issues), and it's not clear that Ray has done anything more than avoid making the players worse as they get older and healthier. A competent coach and experienced players can easily gets you to the middle of this SEC, but it's much harder to take the next step. Ray could make a jump next year; or maybe he continues to progress next year, plateaus when he relies on younger but better talent, and then takes the step another year or two down the road with that talent. Or Ray (or really the team) could make marginal improvements next year as we are benefit from 3 seniors starters, get to around 500 in the SEC, and then take a big step back to start the process over with new young players.

The good news is that if he does flop after next year, his recruiting looks to have improved enough that he will leave the next guy with at least young talent equivalent to Ware, Thomas, and Sword, so we won't have to start from scratch with the rebuilding process.

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Amen. Of course when we aren't starting 3 true freshmen and have more than 6 healthy scholarship players were are gonna lose by less. Even I could coach improvement from that.

It because of the players having more experience , Did we have the most returning min. in the SEC this year ,if we were not then I bet we were 2nd of 3rd .We should be 9 and 5 not the other way around .It time to get a better coach in here while we have a good core of players ,not next year or 2 years . Ray did his job ,he cleaned it up . Now let's get a coach to move us to the next level.You give him 2 more years it could be a dumpster fire all over. Do not give me crap about better players coming in either the 2016 class has not signed on the dotted line yet.

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Originally Posted by engie

The league has gotten better -- and we could have beaten every single team we've played outside of the bad early defeat to UF -- and also could have beaten every team in the top half of the league. This team is very close to being an upper half of the league team -- which now means contending for NCAA births. It's not hard for teams that bring back as much as we will next year along with what we're bringing in to make a 6-8 PPG improvement. We apply that jump to this year -- and we win 11 of the last 12 SEC games we've played = 11-3 in SEC play right now and 20-7 overall -- and if Ready and Sword were healthy from the beginning -- possibly more like 22-5.

This team is on the brink of being what we want it to be...which was my point...

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Originally Posted by gtowndawg

He seems to be a good guy and no I'm not a huge Stans fan either. But at the end of the day, I don't watch and I don't care and as a fan that's the ultimate measuring stick to me.

And I did use to care by the way. I use to know every player, everything. Now, I couldn't pick IJ Ready out of a lineup. I honestly couldn't. My passion for State basketball is dead and I'd like to have it back.

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Well, honestly, that's on you.

All you really said was, 'I'm only interested in State sports when we're good.'

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Originally Posted by engie

Margins: Years 3, 2, 1
Vs best team in the SEC: NA, +11, +35&+25
2nd best: +20&+4, +22&+10, +30 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat Arky at home this year...
3rd best: +4, +20&+21, +32&+8 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat aTm on the road this year...
4th best: +6&+6, +7, +17&-6 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat Ole Miss both home and away this year...
5th best: -6, +4, +42 ----- got over the hump against LSU....
6th best: +6, +19, +25&+16 ----- woulda, coulda, shoulda beat Georgia this year...

Average margins against the top half of a league that bottomed out in 2012 and is rebounding in a big way right now:
current - +5.71PPG** With Kentucky to go, which will probably inflate this number slightly
2014 - +14.25PPG
2013 - +22.2PPG

So -- we've been in every game against the top half of the league and I believe led in the second half of every one of these games sans @ Bud Walton. We've got to learn to finish games -- no doubt. Which is why I said before that we play like a young team -- by not finishing games and dumb, unforced turnovers.

I understand the argument of "there's been improvement but not enough -- it's year 3" -- and I will agree that Ray is a year behind where he needs to be at this point in time. This team is what last year's team should have been IMO...

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This again?

****ing stats. We aren't any good. We are better than we were the last two seasons and that isn't saying much. The SEC is a bad basketball conference. Kentucky is elite and there are three or four average teams. We don't have any shooters. We haven't recruited any shooters, expect for Dunlap, who was rumored close to being dropped by the staff and continues to not play this year for some reason when we need shooters. If Zappardo or Weatherspoon can't bring a spark next year, we are staring .500 for an overall record. We are not getting Newman. There is a small, naive percentage of our fanbase that thinks Ray pulls him. When he doesn't come to MSU, they will pull their support of Ray. I like Ray and he was dealt a tough deck. Ole Miss has found them shooters for the last 4 years. Henderson and Moody. That is the difference in them being a average to below average team and being an NCAA team. If we had Moody, we would be, at least, an NIT team.

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Originally Posted by smootness

Well, honestly, that's on you.

All you really said was, 'I'm only interested in State sports when we're good.'

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People have real lives. I'm not gonna go out of my way to spend ~4 hours a week watching a basketball team that's going nowhere when I could spend those 4 hours doing things far more enjoyable or things I need to actually get done. I haven't lived driving distance to starkville since 2004, and during the croom era I wasn't exactly scheduling my life around football either. I wanted us to be good. I wanted to care. But when you have life to live, it's hard to put on premium on watching a shitty team even if you love the school. Since mullen's been our HC, I rarely miss a game, and then if there's an absolutely unavoidable conflict, i dvr it to watch later. You may call some of us fairweather fans, but I feel like I don't have enough time to get all I want/need to get done anyway, so watching a losing team over and over is a waste of time.

Mentioning croom made me think how close the parallels between JWS > croom > mullen might be to out basketball program. JWS had a good run but petered out at the end, much like Stans. Croom comes in and sucks for 3 years, the stars align for a flukey liberty bowl that wasn't really indicative of croom getting it as a HC, but more like we had a flukey opportunistic D and a future NFL RB, and the flukeyness of the season was verified in croom's 5th and final season. Similarly Ray is about to have a 3rd straight shitty year, but next year we might get to the NIT based on purely having 3 4 year starters and a 3 year starter in the lineup (equivalent to the liberty bowl), but losing all those seniors will likely lead to a regression back to <.500 in ray's 5th season. Hopefully we can find out mullen at that point. It's amazing that we managed not to learn anything from the croom arc.