Official Staff

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Originally Posted by TrapGame

That's b/c they realized Leach's flaw in his scheme, not running the ball enough. We all talked about it for three years. Even guys like me that defended Leach wanted to see more rushing attempts instead of a bunch of 3 yard dump offs.

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And actually I was wrong. His best teams, the one's that made the playoff, were WAY more run heavy. 55% or better run.

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Originally Posted by KB21

With all that said, here are the recommendations from the analytics community:

1. Don?t invest heavily in your run game because it doesn?t correlate with winning

2. Use more play action because it?s more effective than drop-back passing and it has proved to work without having to ?establish the run?

3. Don?t run the ball into eight-man boxes

4. Test the limits of passing, don?t force the run ?unnecessarily?

5. Use the pass to set up the run (run when defenses start to adjust to pass)

6. Deception in all its forms is the most important element in offense

7. The run game is valuable in short-yardage situations, in the red zone and for running out the clock.

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Here are some others, NEVER punt and always go for 2..................just a couple, the first worked out swell for Lane train.

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Originally Posted by KB21

With all that said, here are the recommendations from the analytics community:

1. Don?t invest heavily in your run game because it doesn?t correlate with winning

2. Use more play action because it?s more effective than drop-back passing and it has proved to work without having to ?establish the run?

3. Don?t run the ball into eight-man boxes

4. Test the limits of passing, don?t force the run ?unnecessarily?

5. Use the pass to set up the run (run when defenses start to adjust to pass)

6. Deception in all its forms is the most important element in offense

7. The run game is valuable in short-yardage situations, in the red zone and for running out the clock.

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Guys did you know that you don't have to establish a run to PA pass??? That blew the hell out of my mind.

And hold on, you said we never needed to run and passing was the only way? So why do we need to run if they've adjusted to the pass and why is good in short yardage situations? The Air Raid has an answer for everything remember? Except that minor two year period where Drop 8 was kryptonite and then this year when teams figured out you can cover 2 and cover 3 blitz us. But besides that it has an answer for everything.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

You think he realizes that Lincoln doesn't run Mike's Air Raid? He runs Dana's and Art's. He's between 48-52% run every year that he's been a HC.

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Clearly he doesn't. Nobody throws it as much as we did. And nobody will.

If y'all want to continue to ignore the analytics and rest on the conventional wisdom (that has been proven false) that the formula for winning is running the ball and playing defense, then that's on you. The analytics are on my side of this argument that I will ultimately win as I always do.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

Since I'm having fun pissing in KB's cornflakes and he wants to bring up Lincoln Riley, let's look at ole Linc's splits:

2022- 473 rushes/ 515 passes (48/52 run to pass)
2021- 448 rushes/ 403 passes (53/47 run to pass)
2020- 419 rushes/ 362 passes (53/47 run to pass)
2019- 565 rushes/ 381 passes (60/40 run to pass)
2018- 527 rushes/401 passes (57/43 run to pass)
2017- 546 rushes/ 433 passes (56/44 run to pass)

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I brought up that the other day, and KB went crickets. chirp chirp . And notice this year was the most he has ever thrown it and that was with a Heisman winner......

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Originally Posted by KB21

If y'all want to continue to ignore the analytics and rest on the conventional wisdom (that has been proven false) that the formula for winning is running the ball and playing defense, then that's on you. The analytics are on my side of this argument that I will ultimately win as I always do.

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How many Air Raid teams have won the national championship? Hell how many have been in the playoff? Because by your definition neither Lincoln nor Sonny Dykes is Air Raid.

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Originally Posted by KB21

If y'all want to continue to ignore the analytics and rest on the conventional wisdom (that has been proven false) that the formula for winning is running the ball and playing defense, then that's on you. The analytics are on my side of this argument that I will ultimately win as I always do.

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Again, analytics say you should never punt....

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Originally Posted by KB21

If y'all want to continue to ignore the analytics and rest on the conventional wisdom (that has been proven false) that the formula for winning is running the ball and playing defense, then that's on you. The analytics are on my side of this argument that I will ultimately win as I always do.

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Naw, I'm not ignoring analytics, just have a much deeper understanding of the analytics and the application of them in real game situations.

But hey you go on thinking the Air Raid has answer for every defense to pass every play...but wait your diatribe a few posts back is conflicting with you prior statements on analytics. It talks about...gasp...running the football. How can that be? You are never suppose to run. That's been your stance over and over and over for over a week. How is that possible? Because there are flaws in those analytics you are posting without a deeper dive to understand them.

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Originally Posted by Really Clark?

Naw, I'm not ignoring analytics, just have a much deeper understanding of the analytics and the application of them in real game situations.

But hey you go on thinking the Air Raid has answer for every defense to pass every play...but wait your diatribe a few posts back is conflicting with you prior statements on analytics. It talks about...gasp...running the football. How can that be? You are never suppose to run. That's been your stance over and over and over for over a week.

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That has never been my stance for those paying attention.

I?m fine with running the ball to keep a defense honest, but the days where the running game should be the focus of your offense are long gone.

We now have a coordinator who emphasizes the run game as opposed to a true spread passing game.

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Originally Posted by KB21

That has never been my stance for those paying attention.

I?m fine with running the ball to keep a defense honest, but the days where the running game should be the focus of your offense are long gone.

We now have a coordinator who emphasizes the run game as opposed to a true spread passing game.

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Good grief. Sure dude. You have a special kind of mental disorder.

A spread base is not running or passing. It's just spread and what Barbay runs. You don't run 2 different base styles of offense depending on if you run or throw.

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Originally Posted by KB21

I?m fine with running the ball to keep a defense honest, but the days where the running game should be the focus of your offense are long gone.

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I like to air it out as much as the next guy. But the games we dominated and imposed our will was against A&M and Arkansas and running it down their throat. (Along with some well-timed play action passes). Obviously can’t do that against Bama or Georgia, but anybody with a brain would prefer to RTGDF if we are winning the LOS.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

You think he realizes that Lincoln doesn't run Mike's Air Raid? He runs Dana's and Art's. He's between 48-52% run every year that he's been a HC.

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Exactly! Nobody runs Leachs Air Raid he was unique and the last and that version went with him.

Worst part is, when we go anything less than 10-2 he's gonna come here saying see- I told you so. Which would be stupid considering leach's best year was 8-4. But trust me, this clown is gonna do it. Book it.

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Originally Posted by Homedawg

Worst part is, when we go anything less than 10-2 he's gonna come here saying see- I told you so. Which would be stupid considering leach's best year was 8-4. But trust me, this clown is gonna do it. Book it.

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100%

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

100%

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All more examples of why this clown needs to get dinged.

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Originally Posted by KB21

If y'all want to continue to ignore the analytics and rest on the conventional wisdom (that has been proven false) that the formula for winning is running the ball and playing defense, then that's on you. The analytics are on my side of this argument that I will ultimately win as I always do.

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You posting “analytics” from some random writer at the Atlantic doesn’t prove a damn thing other than you have no idea what you’re talking about.

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Originally Posted by Ari Gold

Just making a point where we had a AD in place and bad hires were made.
If CZA doesn’t win then I’m sure Zach will have a replacement lined up

It's like you are fishing to find a reason to dislike the hire. If you don’t like , all good.. but let’s at least let CZA have a cup of coffee before we start comparing him to Sly Croom

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For me to compare him to Croom he is going to have to earn it. Like averaging 15 PPG. I certainly don't wish that.

That said it's funny you're saying this to me because the people that put Cohen in charge are the same ones that put Arnett in charge.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

That interview with Barbay actually put me a little more at ease.

1. He considers himself a TX high school football coach and talked about the roots his family has in TX. That eased my concerns about losing TX as a recruiting ground.

2. He talked about all the different offenses his offensive philosophy has morphed from. Specifically mentioned Todd Dodge and Todd doesn't run Pro Style.

3. Also specifically said his offense is NOT PRO STYLE.

4. Mentioned that he uses tempo and will go basketball on grass if he sees the opportunity.


And yes, you do actually have to run the ball to win.

2022 UGA 557 rushes/492 passes (53/47 rush to pass)
2021 UGA 545 rushes/407 passes (57/43 rush to pass)
2020 Bama 477 rushes/ 425 passes (53/47 rush to pass)
2019 LSU 494 rushes/567 passes (47/53 rush to pass)

So those are the last 4 national champions with a combined record of 57-1 who on average were around 52/48 rush to pass

Now here's us the last 3 years since Leach was only here 3

2020- 204 rush/557 pass (27/73 rush to pass)
2021- 270 rush/ 704 pass (28/72 rush to pass)
2022- 295 rush/634 pass (32/68 rush to pass)

So our 3 year record was 20-17. So as you can see that is just slightly worse than those teams that won the national championship. Also, it's probably no coincidence that our most wins came when we rushed the ball more.

Now my last point, everyone wants to talk about beating Alabama and the offense you have to run to do it. Let's look at Ole Miss in the two games that they beat Bama in 14 and 15 and then look at them this year when they were ball in air from beating them.

2014- 32 rushes/31 passes. So basically 50/50. And even though they only had 76 rushing yards, they kept Bama honest because the threat was there to actually run and not run some shit dump off that got blown up in the backfield or a yd from the LOS.

2015- 32 rushes/33 passes. Again 50/50. They only had 92 yds rushing but the threat that they may run an actual running play let them throw over the top and not crappy 3 yd slant routes and they had 341 yds passing.

2022- 49 rushes/32 passes. 60/40 run to pass. They had 191 yds rushing and 212 yds passing on just 18 completions. That's balance. They were able to take shots because the defense wasn't in some version of Cover 3 90% of the game. It would take Will 28 passes in the Leach Air Raid to get to 200 yds.


I say all that to say this: YOU HAVE TO HAVE A RUNNING GAME TO WIN AND COMPETE WITH EVERYONE.

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The teams that win the National Championship are close to 50/50 which is a big change from years past. Especially when you consider sacks go down as running plays. Then consider that most of the time they have a lead late in a game and therefore run the ball to run the clock out.

Can't really look at champions without also looking at their defensive and special teams stats.

The best offense in there was LSU's which was pass heavy.

As more and more teams invest in analytics it's only a matter of time before teams are winning titles with 60/40 pass run split. The NFL is close to that right now as it is. And the SEC is starting to look more and more to the NFL for coaches- see Todd Monken, Bill O'Brien, Joe Brady, and etc.

Actually in hindsight would have liked to have seen us hire an up and coming Joe Brady type.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

The teams that win the National Championship are close to 50/50 which is a big change from years past. Especially when you consider sacks go down as running plays. Then consider that most of the time they have a lead late in a game and therefore run the ball to run the clock out.

Can't really look at champions without also looking at their defensive and special teams stats.

The best offense in there was LSU's which was pass heavy.

As more and more teams invest in analytics it's only a matter of time before teams are winning titles with 60/40 pass run split. The NFL is close to that right now as it is. And the SEC is starting to look more and more to the NFL for coaches- see Todd Monken, Bill O'Brien, Joe Brady, and etc.

Actually in hindsight would have liked to have seen us hire an up and coming Joe Brady type.

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You do realize Joe Brady runs Moorhead's offense right? Moorhead wanted to bring him in to be OC in 2019 but some people threw a fit because he had never been an OC and had only been an offensive asst for one year and it was at the pro level.