Originally Posted by
Prediction? Pain.
I won't defend the offense this year or claim that WSU in the decade before Leach was the same type of program as State over the past 10 years. But focusing on the offense specifically, there are some points worth comparing.
In 2011, WSU had a pass-heavy, mediocre-to-ok offense. They were 8th in the PAC-12 in scoring offense and total offense in conference games, and were 44th and 51st nationally in FEI and S&P+ offensive ratings. And by "pass heavy," I mean that in conference play they were 3rd in passing yards per game and 11th in rushing yards per game. The run-pass split of their total yards was 24% run, 76% pass. They had a senior quarterback that year, but freshman Connor Halliday played in four games (and started two) and passed for nearly 1000 yards, so Leach had him coming back.
You'd figure with an offense that passed so much -- I mean, a run to pass ratio of 24/76 sounds like the air raid to me, right? -- the transition would be at least sort of smooth. Well, it wasn't. At all. WSU's offense in Leach's first year regressed across the board. The in-conference total passing yards increased a tad (by 40 yards per game) but the yards per pass attempt, passer rating, and completion % all went down and interceptions when from 10 to 16. The rushing yards, which were already really low, fell off the map -- from 83 yards per game in 2011 to freaking 18 yards per game in 2012.
Here's a good summation -- WSU's 44th national ranking in FEI offense in 2011 dropped to 102nd in 2012 under Leach. In other words, WSU's mediocre Power 5 offense from 2011 bottomed out in Leach's first year.
How about State? Last year, our offense was similarly mediocre. FEI had us at 35th nationally and S&P+ had us at 36th. We were 6th and 8th in the conference in total offense and scoring offense in SEC games. But unlike WSU in 2011, we were a run-heavy offense. Third in the conference in rushing yards per game, 12th in passing yards. Also, we had one of the worst if not the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in college football under Moorhead. In 2018 our sack rate was 99th in the country. And in 2019, in was 119th. (Last year, 10% of every pass we attempted resulted in a sack. Think about that for a minute. Damn. (Right now, for what it's worth, we're 68th nationally in sack rate.))
And this year, like WSU in 2012, Leach took our mediocre offense from last season and gutted it. Leach finished his first season at WSU with the 102nd best offense in the country per FEI (out of 124 teams). Right now we're at 101st out of 130.
Again, this isn't meant to justify anything. It's just perspective. It happened the last time he took over a program and it's happening again here. Hopefully he can pull it off at MSU like he did at WSU. If not, the suckitude for the next year or two is going to be even worse.