They're gonna be right in the end no matter what, aren't they? 2 million to 60k to 134kQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
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They're gonna be right in the end no matter what, aren't they? 2 million to 60k to 134kQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
MDH is to blame. And they do indeed suck! Nobody is using them with testing. They can't even get simple numbers correct. And it's a shame, because Dobbs is a good guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Yeah Dr Dobbs is an excellent physician and good man. MDH has struggled with this since the get go.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Show me where IHME projected 2 million.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Y'all sure did love this model when it unrealistically dropped to 60k. Hmm
Damn, sorry... it was a lot more than 60k, but dropped. I liked it bc it was hopeful. Sorry, I didn't want this to be so tragic.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
C'mon, 7. Obviously everyone wants to be hopeful. That's a flawed argument here; it's about being realistic, and most importantly, being prepared for realistic projections.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Fair enough, I understand wanting to have hope.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
But I want to be realistic because a lot of people still aren't taking it seriously, which leads to more dead people in the end.
I saw a pretty good explainer on this model the other day. It talks about how the model was developed. One of the big issues that I know you've been pointing out was that they were just fitting the data to a Gaussian curve which is why it kept unrealistically dropping to zero. As opposed to what more sophisticated models were doing modeling population spread more realistically but with much higher uncertainty.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Worth a read.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...-ihme-pandemic
Parks and restaurants opening to half capacity in MS..... have fun with that.
Also just wanted to add, this model assumes our social distancing continues at the same rate.
Yeah. And it looks like they've addressed that issue in the latest update, which is a big reason why the numbers are drastically higher now.Quote:
Originally Posted by dparker
Do y'all think MS will have 782 covid deaths or more? I say that number bc that is how many flu deaths we had in 2017 (couldn't find 2018 or 2019 stats). And yes, I know covid is more contagious than the flu, I'm just saying from total death numbers, will we lose more people to covid than the flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/s...ississippi.htm
Social distancing slows deaths. Doesn't stop them. I've seen no evidence that says social distancing is a way to stop it. Tell me how I'm wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Yeah. We will before it's over. Now in what time frame I don't know.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
For the whole year, 2020, I say yeah. Seems there would be no doubt though considering covid19 is considered much more deadly and there's no vaccine like with the fluQuote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Is this a positive or negative post. Gotta stay negative dude ***Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Yeah it elongates the curve, doesn't stop it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
That's what I thought... yet let's hang on to a disaster to make it longer. Suicide rate for 20 and beyond going to be through the roof.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
It will be way more than that.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
For the year i Agree it will be more. How much who knows. 40% of all MS deaths are LTC facilities. While tragic, some of those would have died anyway. Sad but true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
I am going out to eat. I don't believe shit anymore. This whole thing has been politize. Every media out lets finds doctors who give data based on they way they want. It is all bullshit! I will not live in fear and I will not be used by people who hate Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
People who can't go to the hospital to get treated have a higher death rate. If it spreads too much that it overwhelms the hospital then people that wouldn't have fired before start dying. (Not enough ventilators, etc.) Thats the real key here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Again we don't know the death rate because numbers are inflated due to hospitals coding deaths as covid regardless of they are or not. Currently hospitals are not overwhelmed and other than NY at first their have been very few hospitals that are overwhelmed. Also, vents are in sufficient supply mainly due to three things. One less patients going on vents, two some dr. are now saying vents dint help , and three treatments are working and keeping them off vents. Over 4400 MS people have recovered already
As far as more cases. More testing =more cases. Some symptomatic some asymptomatic. Look it's here and we have to understand that and it sucks but their is not going to be a cure. We have to start moving on.
We are 2 months in. Scott county has an positive for over 1% of the county. So let's assume they means 10%. So to keep the curve "flat" we are suppose to stay locked up for another 18 months. Sure. It's not possible. There would be nothing to come out to. But maybe socialism will pay for it.... smdh...Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
And why exactly can't they go to the hospital to get treated?Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
It looks like deaths are actually being undercounted. 'Excess deaths,' or the number of deaths in excess of what is typical for this period of time, are going up pretty much everywhere at a higher number than the official COVID death count.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77
I agree, though, that we can't lockdown forever. We just can't. The system can't support it, which is exactly why Sweden did what they're doing.
And isn't there spare capacity in the hospitals now - according to previous (recent) post in this thread?Quote:
Originally Posted by StateDawg44
Not flaming just help me understand what your saying. Reason I ask this is that the cares act is allowing non covid deaths to be classified as covid deaths without test. Also some states are back counting as far back as feb as total covid deaths. So a patient dies of heart attack or cancer they can and in some states have coded those as covid. Also people during this pandemic that die at home from stroke or other diseases they are classified as covid. This is all legal and hospitals get more money from Medicaid if patients are classified as covidQuote:
Originally Posted by smootness
Hospitals are not overrun with covid patients. No one is running out of ventilators. The majority of people with covid don't even go to the hospital. The virus sucks, it lingers, And it leaves you with a stupid cough. But it's not killing the entire world like some of you **** heads are assuming.
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to defiantdog again.Quote:
Originally Posted by defiantdog
I'm over it all. Like some have said, whatever people decide to do, I'm fine with it. This entire thing has been politicized on both sides, and the majority of Americans are sick of it.
How many would we have lost with 2 months of social distancing? Apples to apples friend. Can't do that here. COVID is WAY more deadly than flu. However, death is becoming the only stat FoxNews cares about. Infections interrupt economic prosperity too. Sick families. Forced quarantine for weeks impacts businesses. We've seen what happens when meat processing plants get it. What happens when it runs its course through the oil supply chain? Energy production? Food supply chain? You think the economy works then? Death is not the only meaningful statistic here.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
We can see the goalposts moving before our eyes.
Here comes hacker **Quote:
Originally Posted by defiantdog
Agree! Like Defiantdog, I had a mild case - self quarantined at home. It took me 45 days to get over my stupid cough!!Quote:
Originally Posted by defiantdog
I think there are a few groups:Quote:
Originally Posted by turkish
1. Ready to open... damn the consequences
2. Ready to open bc we really have no choice
3. Want to stay closed out of fear/concern
4. Want to stay closed bc they're lazy and getting $600 federal and state unemployment on top of that.
5. Want to stay closed to help Biden in November
These tend to be the loudest groups.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
https://i.postimg.cc/pVJJz5Dx/35-F10...FC1-C7-C43.jpg
^^^ this really sucks. Lots of people about to lose grandparents, uncles, aunts, etc.
And if you look at the trend, we have not peaked yet. I was hopeful a couple weeks ago we may have hit the top of the curve, but we haven't. People in icu also spiked but ventilator patients are at least staying flat.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7