THE 2020 MSU Football Recruiting Talk Thread

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Again, our play against 3 of those 4 schools over the past 5 years shows that they don't have a better supporting cast because of their recruiting success. They have been continually ranked higher, and yet we are 4-1 against A&M, 3-2 against Auburn and 2-3 against LSU (with 2 losses that could have been wins). So, where is this mythical proof that they are so far beyond us that we can't compete with our current recruiting? Can we improve our recruiting? Always. And Moorhead has been showing that so far.

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LSU 0-1
Auburn 1-0
aTm 1-0

Not sure what Mullen's record has to do with it. So far, Moorhead is 2-1 vs that group... hopefully he can keep it up

Seems like this thread is getting off track again.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Even then, we'd have to hope auburn, aTm, LSU, and Bama miss on those positions bc they'll have much better supporting casts and depth bc of recruiting success

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We are beating Auburn, LSU, and A&M on a regular basis right now without doing what I mentioned. Alabama is the problem and to beat them you need what I just mentioned and some luck. We aren’t ever recruiting in the top 12 consistently so that plan can be thrown out the window. You have to find a different way and get lucky. Go all in on the most important positions.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

LSU 0-1
Auburn 1-0
aTm 1-0

Not sure what Mullen's record has to do with it. So far, Moorhead is 2-1 vs that group... hopefully he can keep it up

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Two reasons - it goes to the overall state of the program, and 5 years encompasses the eligibility window for most of the players currently on the roster. But, hey, if you want to just focus on Moorhead fine - he's 2-2 against the teams we apparently can't compete with. Still doesn't help your argument.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Two reasons - it goes to the overall state of the program, and 5 years encompasses the eligibility window for most of the players currently on the roster. But, hey, if you want to just focus on Moorhead fine - he's 2-2 against the teams we apparently can't compete with. Still doesn't help your argument.

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What's your record prediction against that group for 2019? Just curious... I say 0-4

So back to a question I asked before we got off topic. How concerned should we be about J. Brown going to the Ole Miss cookout last weekend instead of ours when he's committed to MSU?

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Originally Posted by msstate7

What's your record prediction against that group for 2019? Just curious... I say 0-4

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2-2 - I think we take A&M and LSU. And no, I'm not going to bet you.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

2-2 - I think we take A&M and LSU. And no, I'm not going to bet you.

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Haha. I think that's awfully optimistic though. I think we'll be a touchdown (or more) dog in all. I think all 4 are head and shoulders better, but the lesser 2 are road games.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Haha. I think that's awfully optimistic though. I think we'll be a touchdown (or more) dog in all. I think all 4 are head and shoulders better, but the lesser 2 are road games.

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None of those teams are head and shoulders better than us except Bama. And that one is at home. So even you analytics guys have to say that helps us in that game. Other teams have problems too. LSU cant throw, A&M is a constant underachiever and Auburn is a wild card with a bad OL.

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Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

None of those teams are head and shoulders better than us except Bama. And that one is at home. So even you analytics guys have to say that helps us in that game. Other teams have problems too. LSU cant throw, A&M is a constant underachiever and Auburn is a wild card with a bad OL.

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Same site on main board (#15 thread) that says we have outstanding LBs and secondary says auburn has #5 oline in oline strength.

We can argue in that thread, Bucky... sorry recruiting guys

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Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

None of those teams are head and shoulders better than us except Bama. And that one is at home. So even you analytics guys have to say that helps us in that game. Other teams have problems too. LSU cant throw, A&M is a constant underachiever and Auburn is a wild card with a bad OL.

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I'm just kind of confused-is the question "can we be competitive with the top schools in the division with our current recruiting profile"-that answer is yes outside of Bama, but to win the West you have to beat all or all but 1(sometimes) and we haven't shown we can do that. If y'all wanna talk about how recruiting rankings can overrate traditional powers, have at it. There's a plethora of examples of that happening every year. Recruiting at an elite level isn't a sure fire ticket to winning your league, but it does get you in the room. It's prerequisite. We can't get in the room bc of where we recruit, which is part of the reason we are always underrated.

BTW-early average spread projections for the games mentioned(per S&P+ & Massey Composite)
Aub -3.85
LSU -1.95
A&M -1.9
Bama -11.25

On average you'd expect to win 1.45 of these 4 games which means there's a 45% chance of going 2-2. I'd probably bet on 1-3.

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Originally Posted by Pipedream

I'm just kind of confused-is the question "can we be competitive with the top schools in the division with our current recruiting profile"-that answer is yes outside of Bama, but to win the West you have to beat all or all but 1(sometimes) and we haven't shown we can do that. If y'all wanna talk about how recruiting rankings can overrate traditional powers, have at it. There's a plethora of examples of that happening every year. Recruiting at an elite level isn't a sure fire ticket to winning your league, but it does get you in the room. It's prerequisite. We can't get in the room bc of where we recruit, which is part of the reason we are always underrated.

BTW-early average spread projections for the games mentioned(per S&P+ & Massey Composite)
Aub -3.85
LSU -1.95
A&M -1.9
Bama -11.25

On average you'd expect to win 1.45 of these 4 games which means there's a 45% chance of going 2-2. I'd probably bet on 1-3.

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Bama skews the division so bad. Take out Bama in the West & we'd have a legit chance 1 out of every 3-4 years to realistically compete for the West. With Bama running the way they are winning the division is just damn near impossible.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

Bama skews the division so bad. Take out Bama in the West & we'd have a legit chance 1 out of every 3-4 years to realistically compete for the West. With Bama running the way they are winning the division is just damn near impossible.

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Which is why the realistic goal should be NY6, not sec imo

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Which is why the realistic goal should be NY6, not sec imo

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I don't disagree.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

Bama skews the division so bad. Take out Bama in the West & we'd have a legit chance 1 out of every 3-4 years to realistically compete for the West. With Bama running the way they are winning the division is just damn near impossible.

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I agree and I also agree that a NY6 bowl is the ceiling of the program right now, but I don't think you can hope/assume for a Bama dropoff when Saban leaves. Last 30 seasons they've lost 2 or fewer games 13 times. The 30 seasons before that it happened 20 times. 33 of their last 60 seasons have ended with 2 or fewer losses. They're going to be a national title contending team AT LEAST every other year. That spans 8 different coaches for them. It's just who they are. They've been remarkably consistent under Saban, but I don't think they're going to drop back to being A&M or Auburn when he leaves.

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Originally Posted by Pipedream

I agree and I also agree that a NY6 bowl is the ceiling of the program right now, but I don't think you can hope/assume for a Bama dropoff when Saban leaves. Last 30 seasons they've lost 2 or fewer games 13 times. The 30 seasons before that it happened 20 times. 33 of their last 60 seasons have ended with 2 or fewer losses. They're going to be a national title contending team AT LEAST every other year. That spans 8 different coaches for them. It's just who they are. They've been remarkably consistent under Saban, but I don't think they're going to drop back to being A&M or Auburn when he leaves.

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Depends on the coach. From Stallings to Saban they ran through 3 mediocre coaches. You can't just assume anybody can keep the train rolling.

It took Dabo Swinney years to build Clemson. In his first several years, they were near the bottom of ACC recruiting. Then he had a couple of good seasons and recruiting picked up. Then he had a couple of great seasons and recruiting followed so that now they compete with Alabama.

Mullen was following a similar trajectory and could have succeeded except for 1) his constant job seeking and 2) his loyalty to the "country club" coaches. If JoeMo picks up where he left off as a recruiter and if he is a great coach, we could follow Clemson's progression and be competitive for the SEC.

BTW: I don't have the figures for Clemson's athletic budget, but they were not listed in the top 25 in a 247 sports article. We were number 32, so there is not that big a difference in financial resources. Also, they are a similarly sized school in a better, but not that much better, location.

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Originally Posted by 1bigdawg

It took Dabo Swinney years to build Clemson. In his first several years, they were near the bottom of ACC recruiting. Then he had a couple of good seasons and recruiting picked up. Then he had a couple of great seasons and recruiting followed so that now they compete with Alabama.

Mullen was following a similar trajectory and could have succeeded except for 1) his constant job seeking and 2) his loyalty to the "country club" coaches. If JoeMo picks up where he left off as a recruiter and if he is a great coach, we could follow Clemson's progression and be competitive for the SEC.

BTW: I don't have the figures for Clemson's athletic budget, but they were not listed in the top 25 in a 247 sports article. We were number 32, so there is not that big a difference in financial resources. Also, they are a similarly sized school in a better, but not that much better, location.

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The biggest problem with the Clemson model for MSU is that we're fighting 4 Top 12 recruiters in our division & 6 Top 15 recruiters in our conference. Clemson only have 2 other Top 20 recruiters in their entire conference. That makes it a lot easier to slow climb up the recruiting rankings while still being able to win big on the field. What clemson did to offset the lack of top 5-10 recruiting was hit on elite college QB's the last decade. They went from Tahj Boyd to Desean Watson to Trevor Lawrence & will have DJ Uiagalelei waiting in the wings after him.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

Depends on the coach. From Stallings to Saban they ran through 3 mediocre coaches. You can't just assume anybody can keep the train rolling.

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They've lost 2 or less games every other year for 60 years. Hard for me to imagine that train is coming off the tracks.

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Originally Posted by Pipedream

They've lost 2 or less games every other year for 60 years. Hard for me to imagine that train is coming off the tracks.

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Yes & between 97 & 07 they lost more than 2 games every year. Again they better hire the right coach or the machine won't just keep running. Bama is a premiere program but all premiere programs need premiere coaches or they won't run properly.