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I did not read neither of the two but out of curiosity how do we know which one is true? Hell they both might be fake. I don't believe shit any more. The media have lost their way because of political tunnel vision.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turfdawg67
I support our president; but you think in a million years he'd say "Sweden was right and the US made the wrong decision"? No one knows whether Sweden made the right decision yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Oh I don't know... because the woman lives in Charlotte and WCNC is the local TV station in Charlotte. Is the local media biased now? Has the Starkville Daily News been infiltrated by libtards? WCNC ran the story first, The Blaze and The Lead Patriot took the story and put it on their sites. WCNC updated the story when all the facts were in... the others did not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
Pine Belt and one around JacksonQuote:
Originally Posted by BeardoMSU
^^^This^^^ Sweden made a ballsy call with the amount of information they had at the time. Based on the updated information, I would bet that Sweden made the right call, but it's still very much up in the air because of uncertainty in the data we have and also because new developments could change the results in a heartbeat. We could find out in the next two weeks that Remdisivir doesn't reduce mortality at all, or that it cuts mortality in half, or that it cuts mortality by 90%. Whether Sweden's decision ultimately turns out to be the right or wrong call with the benefit of hindsight could look different under each of those scenarios.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Checking out Sweden's numbers on worldometer everything looks ok for them. They have had a gradual progression that appears to be leveling off. Maybe even dipping a bit overall.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
He could've not said anythingQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
As of now it looks like they really screwed up. Time will tell though.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I still don't believe any numbers being thrown out by any media format. China is lying about the amount of cases, we are inflating the number of cases, and Europe is clueless. Not to mention..... the WHO has been clueless this entire time, and they are supposed to be the experts.
Agreed. Take a quick scroll through this pageQuote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...WE+NOR+DNK+FIN
Norway, Finland, and Denmark are opening back up and have the numbers low enough they can trace and isolate (similar to South Korea, which is down to single digit cases per day now)
Of course, it's too early to call it. And we need to see economic numbers as well.
I think it's far too early to say anything definitive about this.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Sweden's death rate has definitely outpaced their neighbors, and it is slightly outpacing ours, but not drastically. And if it turns out that most of the population becomes exposed to it eventually, as many studies have said will happen, then they may both reach the end of it sooner and see less economic impact as a result, all while the overall number of people affected is about equal.
They have said from the beginning they would see more deaths early; they knew of the reality of their response. They said the reason they were going that route was because it was a more sustainable response, and that may prove true. If we try to ramp back up and then shut back down once cases spike again, we're going to be caught in a vicious cycle that may ultimately hurt us worse.
This thing is far from over. I think even adding 'as of now,' any analysis is essentially useless. Now, if Sweden had a death rate of like 20% so far, I would certainly agree it's probably early enough to say it was a bad move. But it's not anywhere near something that bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Simply looking at current death rates and comparing is basically meaningless. All death counts will continue to rise, and it's possible Sweden's slows down while others don't and they catch up. It's simply way too early to say anything.
Sweden is 12.2% case fatality rateQuote:
Originally Posted by smootness
Norway is 2.7% case fatality rate
Sweden: 790 new cases today, 124 new deaths
Norway: 24 new cases today, 3 new deaths
https://i.imgur.com/Le73WeC.png
https://i.imgur.com/dO8Qc9Z.png
On the second chart, you can clearly see where the lockdown started having an effect. The trajectories were almost exactly the same.
Norway has begun lifting the lockdown and their cases are not increasing yet. They are at a place where the numbers are so low they can trace and isolate any new cases.
I realize anything is possible in the future, but this evidence is pretty strong IMO. We need economic numbers as well.
Keep in mind, too, though, that Sweden has double the population of Norway and a higher population density. A lot of their impact is happening in Stockholm, similar to the US with New York, which is much bigger than any city in Norway and has much greater population density.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
I think it's likely Sweden would have begun to outpace Norway at least slightly even if they had both done the same thing.
But saying Norway has begun lifting lockdown without increasing cases is, again, mostly meaningless at this point. They will have to continue to open it up more in order to keep their economy from tanking, and as they do, their cases will undoubtedly spike and almost certainly past the point of being able to fully contact trace. Once that happens, you're back where you started.
Again, the point is that Sweden's strategy is more sustainable. Time will tell if the stricter lockdowns lowered the number of cases and deaths, and if the added economic struggles were worth it.
How can you say this is "undoubtedly" going to happen?Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
Look at South Korea. South Korea is fully reopened.
https://i.imgur.com/RFbPlG8.png
Since you brought up population and density, they also have a lot more people and a lot higher population density than Sweden.
Norway is following South Korea's strategy btw.
Sorry, my original post was wrong about the level of testing.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
The difference in South Korea is that they started testing and contact tracing aggressively from the very beginning. They also have a system in place that is much better designed to aid in this than even Norway.
Has Norway gotten control over all the cases in the country? If not, reopening is destined to lead to another spike. I honestly don't have enough information to know myself, so what I posted originally may have been off-base.
I still say we won't know until we're truly past this disease and a vaccine is available as to who handled it better.
For the record, I don't think there's any doubt South Korea is the model for this. There is a debate to be had as to whether or not their culture has helped and what level of government authority and oversight we want; after all, they are updating people on where their neighbors and locals who have had the virus are going, and I'm not sure we'd ever be ok with that.
But in terms of preparedness, they are a model we should do everything we can to emulate so we're prepared the next time something like this comes along.
This is false.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
Norway has tested 32,000 per million.
South Korea has tested 12,000 per million.
Yeah, I just edited my prior post. I got data from the wrong place.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
But testing is only one part of the equation. South Korea has a system much better designed to test and then contact trace than I believe Norway has.
Even the US is now testing people at a higher rate than South Korea, but it won't mean much because we don't have a similar system in place to trace and isolate those who have it or have come in contact with it.
Norway tested around 3250 people yesterday and found 24 positive cases.
I could be wrong, but Norway appears to be doing all of the right things. They have contact tracing apps that use GPS and bluetooth just like SK.
Going back to my original point, I don't think it's fair to say they'll "undoubtedly" have a spike. I think it's more like a strong "maybe."
Again, in regard to actual lockdown measures, South Korea mirrored Sweden to a great deal. They weren't as restrictive as most countries. The difference was testing and contact tracing put in place early and a citizenry more apt to do what they're told to do and follow suggestions. They also have a recent history they're trying to avoid that's probably provided some motivation.
Should Sweden have shut down similar to Norway because they didn't have that level of testing and contact tracing in place from the beginning? Perhaps. That's a strong argument. I just refuse to say anything until this whole thing is over, and I'm fascinated to watch it unfurl.
I don't believe any one country is a model. I think each country is going to have to look back when it is over and do what is right for their country. Korea is nothing like the United States. We have way more people and way more different race in our country. From what have heard Blacks are more affected by this then whites or asians. Just how many blacks does Korea have? I just don't think one glove is going to fit every hand. I said this on a message board somewhere or face book but we went into this pandemic fighting it like the last pandemic. Big mistake! It's a lot like Katrina. Insurance companies used Camille as the model and it was way off. The United States military use to go into wars with one arm tied behind it back by fighting the next war with tactics used int the last war. They don't do that anymore. I think the CDC is going to plan a little different going forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
This is all true, and I agree, it's fascinating to me as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
I believe that Norway is going to fare better than Sweden based on the evidence I've seen. But I don't mind being wrong.
I've said this from the beginning: the Asian countries have fared a lot better due to experience and cultural differences.
The next time this happens, I bet we'll do better due to experience as well. It won't take 2 months for people to get over the mask stigma, etc. Our culture is changing too.
If you can't tell, I'm fascinated by this whole thing and by the discussion.
One other interesting thing is that, while Sweden's deaths per million is about 6.5 times higher than Norway's, despite only about double the population, their number of confirmed cases is only about 2.7 times higher than Norway's, which is much more in line with the population difference. Sweden has had about 2,000 cases per million compared to Norway's 1,400.
Now, some of this is due to Norway's higher rate of testing. But Sweden is testing a lot as well. So it may be that it's somewhat explained, too, by Sweden's high level of outbreak in older care facilities, which they have admitted is a problem they will have to assess.
We assume this hits every country the same, but it doesn't.
Likewise, out of 7,500 reported active cases in Norway, 37 are serious or critical. Out of 17,500 reported active cases in Sweden, 531 are serious or critical. That doesn't add up unless there are differences in the way it's affected the population.
Norway's tested 3 times as many people per million which I think makes a big difference in case counts. I don't think there are many people infected in Norway that haven't tested positive.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
Norway's positive test rate was 0.7% yesterday and 1.5% the day before
Sweden's positive test rate over the most recent week they released testing data was 14.5%
I know there are hundreds of different kind of tests. Ummc created its own. Is there any data or belief as to whether some country's tests are better than others?
Maximum Emotional Impact, now we know how to bring down a superpower.
Story on chicken plants in Carthage and Forest
https://www.clarionledger.com/story/...rs/3041482001/
Man, that's rough. There's no doubt we need to continue ramping up testing, and it needs to be made available at places like this that are crucial to the supply chain.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Comparing countries is natural, but it's not really useful information in a lot of instances. The right level of comparison is probably something like MSAs. It may be fair to say NYC didn't do a good job with the Wuhan virus, but it's also fair to say they had tough choices that most places don't have to grapple with. THe subway and public transit was apparentlly a major distributor of the virus. But if you shut it down, you are putting a lot of people in a very bad situation. What they did was worse; cutting capacity in half assured that each car/bus would be morem crowded, but I can see how it seemed natural to the MTA to run at half capacity when the passenger count was more than halved.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
To compare Norway and Sweden, you probably need to compare comparable MSAs, but even that doesn't tell you a ton without doing a lot of analysis. Plenty of similar MSAs with similar responses have significantly different stats driven largely by luck. Detroit is not worse than Baltimore b/c it's worse run (they are both probably pretty close to the limit on how poorly they can be run), they're worse because they have more traffic with China b/c of the auto manufacturing industry.
Hard stopped reading at "wuhan virus"Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
And no, not because I think it's racist, but because I think it's a dumb attempt to shift blame. Nobody called it that until shit started getting bad here.
People were calling it that well before it was triggering the SJW. Then it sort of ramped up after.
If you want to be emotional and let that cause you to be dumb, that's your business. But you do realize that China is sort of a large place and calling it the China virus is not very specific? We don't call Ebola the "Africa hemorrhagic fever". We don't even call Marburg the "German hemorrhagic fever", even though Germany is quite a bit smaller than China.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
When Ebola Reston was named, do you really think people were blaming the people of Virginia? Or do you think it's possible they just weren't made dumb by an attempt to view non-political facts through political lenses?
Or you could call it coronavirus / covid-19 / SARS-CoV-2 like everyone has been calling it from the beginningQuote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Anyway.
Looks like MS is including "probable" deaths now too.
As a reminder, this means that medical examiner put this on their death certificate.
As another reminder, nobody is getting money for these dead bodies that have covid listed on their death certificate. The money is only for hospitals with actual positive tests. Since these dead people did not test positive, there is no money.
New cases reported today: 397
New deaths reported today: 20 *
* 11 of the deaths reported today occurred between March 29 and April 16, and are based on death certificate investigations.
Also highest number of cases reported so far.
Scott County: 339 total cases, 1.2% of the population has tested positive
That's not what people have been calling it from the beginning.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
But ignoring that, coronavirus is fine for now; people assume you are talking about Wuhan coronavirus and not corona viruses in general, but of course it's either inaccurate or at best imprecise. Doesn't matter now but it won't be a good term when it's not front and center unless we make coronavirus no longer a useful term for it's technical meaning.
Covid 19 is fine. People know what you are talking about. It's specific enough that it will continue to be correct. Maybe we never have another novel corona virus become and issue and people generally remember what Covid 19 is referencing 20 and 30 years down the road. Certainly wouldn't think other people should be obligated to use something other than Covid 19. But there's not really a good reason to break with convention, and certainly only somebody being made dumb by partisanship would try to insist that other people break with convention.
SARS-Cov-2 is just idiotic outside of a scientific paper, or maybe as an aside in a lay article before reverting to a more useful naming convention. Other than blind partisanship and being jerked around like a puppet, what would ever make you think it's reasonable to expect people to forego normal naming conventions that are easily understandable and easy to use, to replace it with SARS-CoV-2?
ETA: And I've used every term but Sars-Cov-2 in verbal conversations and in writing, and I've also used just "Covid". Use whatever you'd like. Just don't be a puppet and complain about other people using easy to comprehend and accurate language.
I'm sorta partial to Wuhan virus myself. That informs me of which coronavirus or covid virus we're talking about and ... It can produce deaths at a higher rate than the others.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Time to open this bitch back up.***Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker