Our path to a Regional...

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04-30-2025, 08:41 PM
R2Dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

I could be totally wrong but i think the team catches fire now.

We'll probably win UK and OM series then lose to Mizzou and not make regional due to that. Most Miss St thing likely to occur.
04-30-2025, 10:49 PM
Quaoarsking

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...f-64-april-30/

Despite everything, Baseball America has us at #4 in the First Four Out. If we can win the series this weekend, we can probably get into the field of 64.

D1Baseball has us as the 3rd team out:
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/20...f-64-april-30/
05-01-2025, 08:16 AM
StarkVegasSteve

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

D1Baseball has us as the 3rd team out:
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/20...f-64-april-30/

It's actually incredible with as volatile as we have been, we could still make it.
05-01-2025, 10:45 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

It's actually incredible with as volatile as we have been, we could still make it.

That's what happens when you're a blueblood.
05-03-2025, 10:26 PM
Quaoarsking

Suddenly things are looking good for us.
05-03-2025, 10:31 PM
Coach34

RPI to 38
05-03-2025, 10:41 PM
ScoobaDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

Start talking about 14-15 sec wins.....that would be a wonderful end to the season.
05-03-2025, 11:06 PM
Quaoarsking

A win tomorrow puts us in really good shape. Even if we lose, we still have a plausible path.
05-03-2025, 11:18 PM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

A win tomorrow puts us in really good shape. Even if we lose, we still have a plausible path.

If we get to 14 SEC wins we should be a lock. Would love to sweep tomorrow. Next weekend will be electric.
05-03-2025, 11:27 PM
Coach34

4 more SEC wins are we are in
05-04-2025, 12:04 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

Yeah. I think a strong finish- 2/3 against UK (check), 2/3 against Ole Miss, and a sweep against Mizzou might be good enough to get us a 2 seed potentially.

Also, the committee looks at what you did your last ten games and we are in that territory now more than likely.

Could end up with a RPI in the low 30's high 20's with a strong finish.
05-04-2025, 12:05 AM
HoopsDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

4 more SEC wins are we are in

5
05-04-2025, 06:48 AM
R2Dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

4 more SEC wins are we are in

It would suck to draw a #4 MSU team in regional.
05-04-2025, 07:18 AM
MetEdDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoopsDawg

5

I'm afraid this might be the correct answer.

Three wins against Missouri sounds good, but they are winless in conference. Winless. 0-23 with an RPI over 150.

It might take 5 more wins to get us there because our upper 30s RPI is going to take a late season hit with North Alabama and 3 against Missouri.
05-04-2025, 03:18 PM
Quaoarsking
Everything is different now. We are a game ahead of this pace now. 3 more wins gets us to 13-17, and 4 more gets us to 14-16 and a sure bid to a Regional. And while you can never count on a sweep, especially on the road, Missouri is so bad that we probably will sweep them.

Are we a lock? No, if we get swept next weekend we're probably out, and if we only win 1, I'm not comfortable unless we sweep Missouri. But suddenly I think we're probably going to get in, and just like in 2018, we can even start talking about creeping up to a 2 seed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
❌✅❌ @ Auburn - again maybe 1
✅✅✅ Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.
05-04-2025, 03:20 PM
Coach34

RPI sitting at 31 currently
05-04-2025, 03:24 PM
EdwardDrayton

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Everything is different now. We are a game ahead of this pace now. 3 more wins gets us to 13-17, and 4 more gets us to 14-16 and a sure bid to a Regional. And while you can never count on a sweep, especially on the road, Missouri is so bad that we probably will sweep them.

Are we a lock? No, if we get swept next weekend we're probably out, and if we only win 1, I'm not comfortable unless we sweep Missouri. But suddenly I think we're probably going to get in, and just like in 2018, we can even start talking about creeping up to a 2 seed.

It was very hard to imagine this without an in season move. Thankfully Zac made the move and the team has responded. Still work to do but we have a chance. Incredible.
05-04-2025, 03:26 PM
ScoobaDawg

15 sec wins is seriously creeping into possibility. Im not crazy enough to type the next number.
05-04-2025, 03:41 PM
KOdawg1

Need 4 of the next 6. Completely doable at this point.

I had written this team off, but they've responded with the coaching change. They're much more relaxed and aren't pressing as much. They've actually been... dare I say... fun? to watch?

Let's win the series vs. the Confederates next week and then sweep Mizzou to get to .500 in league play and then go 17 up somebody else's regional.
05-04-2025, 03:48 PM
KB21

I've been saying the talent has always been here. Recruiting has never been our issue. Maximizing the players we recruit has, and I can't say for certain that it's because of how we approach player development or the cultural effect of having a head coach who is essentially completely hands off on everything. Maybe it's a combination of the two, but it just seems to me that our coaching is more in tune with our players now, and our players are more in tune with the situations now. Confidence is such a big aspect of baseball, and this team has played with some confidence and swagger over the past 4 games.
05-04-2025, 06:46 PM
maroonmania

Quote:

Originally Posted by KOdawg1

Need 4 of the next 6. Completely doable at this point.

I had written this team off, but they've responded with the coaching change. They're much more relaxed and aren't pressing as much. They've actually been... dare I say... fun? to watch?

Let's win the series vs. the Confederates next week and then sweep Mizzou to get to .500 in league play and then go 17 up somebody else's regional.

Yep, and we should flood the field and cancel the UNA game. That one is an RPI killer.
05-04-2025, 06:55 PM
EdwardDrayton

Quote:

Originally Posted by maroonmania

Yep, and we should flood the field and cancel the UNA game. That one is an RPI killer.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1Hs...ibextid=wwXIfr
05-04-2025, 07:00 PM
KOdawg1

Quote:

Originally Posted by maroonmania

Yep, and we should flood the field and cancel the UNA game. That one is an RPI killer.

Absolutely. I have no idea why we always schedule that game for the last week. It doesn't make sense
05-06-2025, 03:44 PM
Quaoarsking

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2025-...ections-may-6/

3 seed in Tallahassee in the latest D1B bracket. Not even one of the last 4 in. Things are looking good.

I hope we can play our way up to a 2 seed, but if we can't, I hope our 2 is a mid-major.
05-06-2025, 10:29 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2025-...ections-may-6/

3 seed in Tallahassee in the latest D1B bracket. Not even one of the last 4 in. Things are looking good.

I hope we can play our way up to a 2 seed, but if we can't, I hope our 2 is a mid-major.

This week will tell the tale of whether we are a 3 or a 2. Our RPI last I looked is 35. Two wins over number 17-18 ish Ole Miss should be enough to get us into the 20's or low 30's which is definitely 2 seed range.

I wouldn't be surprised if the committee looks at conference W/L record more than RPI because conference realignment has caused some really wonky things to happen in the ACC. Like Duke at 14-10 in conference with a RPI of 41. I mean, there is a chance they could win the conference and their RPI might not get much higher than the 30's.

That could end up being to MSU's benefit because if we win 2 this weekend and sweep Mizzou that puts us at 15-15. And if I remember correctly I don't believe the committee has ever left a SEC team out of the regionals with a .500 record. If I'm wrong it would be very unusual and our RPI is definitely in the range of being included in the field.

But as far as being a 2- I think there is a realistic chance we get there. I think we're closer to that than being left out.

That said, if we get swept this weekend we're probably done.
05-06-2025, 10:30 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by KOdawg1

Absolutely. I have no idea why we always schedule that game for the last week. It doesn't make sense

It really doesn't. Winning won't kill our RPI, but losing would. And in baseball there is always that chance.
05-06-2025, 11:38 PM
The Federalist Engineer

If MSU got a 2 seed, then Troy gets a 3 seed. We still might play in Tallahassee.

If this happened, would love that matchup. MSU lost to Troy using a starter and mid reliever that have no business in an SEC roster. Two cats that need to pack their bags for permanent departure after final exams this semester.

But I would like the Conway or Morgantown sites more.

Parker could get a Super versus Butch. If he eliminates Butch in Super, that would be cool. Auburn does not scare MSU in the least. Any program with Greasy Foxhall is trash. Or Parker drags his nuts over Sabins, Wes Johnson, and Coggin. This would Roman Style transfer of power. No elections. You meet in the battlefield.
05-06-2025, 11:53 PM
Coach34

We go 2-1 vs Mississippi we will be a 2 seed no doubt barring losing the series to Mizzou

15-15 in the SEC and we are a solid 2
05-07-2025, 11:35 AM
TNDawg35

Has anyone else noticed Gotro is actually coaching hitters instead of charting the whole time? I saw it in the KY series.
05-07-2025, 01:10 PM
StarkVegasSteve

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNDawg35

Has anyone else noticed Gotro is actually coaching hitters instead of charting the whole time? I saw it in the KY series.

Jake has been coaching hitters the entire year. He both charts and coaches during the games. He's done it since he's been here.
05-09-2025, 10:51 PM
Quaoarsking

11-15 now. Really big game Sunday.

If we lose Sunday, we should be in if we sweep Missouri, which would put us at 14-16, but if we lose 1 and end up 13-17, we're going to be sweating it out for a week hoping to sneak in. And if we lose the series, we're out and deserve to be.

If we win Sunday, we can absorb a loss to Missouri and still get to 14-16.
05-10-2025, 01:02 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

11-15 now. Really big game Sunday.

If we lose Sunday, we should be in if we sweep Missouri, which would put us at 14-16, but if we lose 1 and end up 13-17, we're going to be sweating it out for a week hoping to sneak in. And if we lose the series, we're out and deserve to be.

If we win Sunday, we can absorb a loss to Missouri and still get to 14-16.

Really need to see what our RPI ends up after game three. We're sitting at 32 as I type this. So we really had a zero net gain today. A win might get us in the 20's. A loss I would guess could drop us into the 34-36 range. Which shows how important game three is for us.

But at the 28 range I just don't think we can afford to lose to Mizzou. Texas A&M had a similar RPI to us coming into today and their loss to Mizzou dropped them 10 points in RPI. I just don't think we can absorb that no matter what happens tomorrow.

The thing is to- Mizzou beating A&M that one game might actually be what gets us in because if we have the same record as them and a much higher RPI that could be the tiebreaker.
05-10-2025, 01:05 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

We go 2-1 vs Mississippi we will be a 2 seed no doubt barring losing the series to Mizzou

15-15 in the SEC and we are a solid 2

Our problem right now is where we place in the SEC. We're looking like we're around the 12th-13th place team. Our RPI is better. It's OK. Not great.

I just think that when the committee looks at the entire resume and takes everything into account we're probably looking at a 3 seed.

Now, a run in the SEC Tournament might change that. But I think that's where we're going to be projected when the season ends next week.
05-10-2025, 10:37 PM
Quaoarsking
UPDATE: We are now 12-15. What a turnaround!

If we sweep Missouri, we move to 15-15 and probably get a 2 seed.
As long as we win the series, we should be safely in.
If we go 1-2, we will be sweating it up until the bracket reveal.
If we get swept, we're out and deserve to be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
❌✅❌ @ Auburn - again maybe 1
✅✅✅ Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
❌✅✅ Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.
05-10-2025, 10:42 PM
Coach34

Suck it bitches!!! This team is Regional bound
05-10-2025, 10:44 PM
Todd4State

RPI currently 32. That's borderline 2 seed and with four games against sub 100 RPI teams we have no margin for error.
05-10-2025, 10:44 PM
HoopsDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

Suck it bitches!!! This team is Regional bound

Wait. Did you just tell our fans to suck it? Lame
05-10-2025, 10:45 PM
HoopsDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

RPI currently 32. That's borderline 2 seed and with four games against sub 100 RPI teams we have no margin for error.

I don't think a 2 or 3 matters that much. Could get us a softer 1.
05-10-2025, 10:46 PM
BuckyIsAB****

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

Suck it bitches!!! This team is Regional bound

Lemon is off to the big regional final
05-10-2025, 10:47 PM
HoopsDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

Lemon is off to the big regional final

LOL

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