Don't look now Braves fans

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

There's a reason why every manager from college to MLB pinch runs later in the game when they don't have speed on base. Just getting on base isn't enough. I'd take BJ Upton on 1st base 3 out of 10 times over a slow guy 4 out of 10 times because BJ can stay out of double plays better, steal a base better, go from 1st to 3rd better, tag up and move to the next base better, score from 2nd on a hit better, tag up and score better and score on a squeeze/sacrifice better to make up for that 1 less time he's on base. The other 3 times he's a better scoring player than the slow guy. After saying all of that I do think the Braves need to go get a leadoff hitter and another SP. BJ is not the answer for the entire season and when it comes time for the playoffs or the final push for the playoffs the Braves need a more reliable player at the top imo.

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Show me the numbers that prove having speed creates more runs scored than getting on base does? The threat of a stolen base or more speed to go from 1st to 3rd means very little when the players hitting behind you hit a lot of extra base hits.

Here's what you will get if you continue to hit BJ Upton #1 and Andrelton Simmons #2. Freddie Freeman batting with no one on base. I'd much rather have Freddie Freeman hitting with a runner on base 40% of the time than him hitting with a runner on base less than 30% of the time.

What does pinch running have to do with getting on base? Your scenario fits exactly what we are saying Dawg61. There's a reason that guy that's PR isn't starting and the guy that actually got on base is.... Yeah speed is better once you get on base but it's more important to get there first. So when you need speed and only speed AKA late in the game you put it in AFTER the better hitter has gotten on.

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Originally Posted by KB21

Show me the numbers that prove having speed creates more runs scored than getting on base does? The threat of a stolen base or more speed to go from 1st to 3rd means very little when the players hitting behind you hit a lot of extra base hits.

Here's what you will get if you continue to hit BJ Upton #1 and Andrelton Simmons #2. Freddie Freeman batting with no one on base. I'd much rather have Freddie Freeman hitting with a runner on base 40% of the time than him hitting with a runner on base less than 30% of the time.

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Just curious why you think Simmons obp won't continue to go up. Hasn't Simmons batted 8th pretty much his whole career? Wouldn't you say hitting 8th in the nl is the toughest slot?

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

What does pinch running have to do with getting on base? Your scenario fits exactly what we are saying Dawg61. There's a reason that guy that's PR isn't starting and the guy that actually got on base is....

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When Fredi is making the decision to pinch run someone, you know what it does? It gets Evan Gattis's bat out of the line up for the rest of an extra inning game. The only thing more foolish than Fredi's decision to pinch run Jordan Schafer for Evan Gattis in extra innings against the Angels when that run meant nothing is batting BJ Upton in the lead off spot. The only thing Fredi did when he made that decision is take Gattis's bat out of the line up for the rest of the game.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Just curious why you think Simmons obp won't continue to go up. Hasn't Simmons batted 8th pretty much his whole career? Wouldn't you say hitting 8th in the nl is the toughest slot?

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Because he is a hacker. He lacks patience at the plate. He has not learned to take a walk. He's the best defensive short stop in baseball, maybe ever, but he is a hacker at the plate.

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

1. You yourself have talked about the rate needed to be considered effective at stealing bases which is what I'm saying. But keep that "cred" up Toddy boy. Cool points all around.

2. 49 extra runs when the playoffs come down to a very small number of games separating teams MIGHT just come in handy. That was one of the more asinine posts I've seen. But then again people opposing me in these arguments routinely spout idiotic things.

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Awwwww......did I hurt your wittle insecure feelings again?

You talking about someone trying to get "cool" points is laughable considering you lead the board in "hey, look at me! Look at all the things I was right about!!!" threads started by someone.

1. I do talk about stolen base percentages, but I also talk about them in the proper context. Something you routinely fail to do when talking about statistics.

2. We'll see how Upton finishes things out. If he continues to perform like he has he can certainly change his numbers.

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Originally Posted by KB21

Because he is a hacker. He lacks patience at the plate. He has not learned to take a walk. He's the best defensive short stop in baseball, maybe ever, but he is a hacker at the plate.

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Well as an 8th place hitter wouldn't you want someone who hacks? You don't wanna walk with runners on hitting 8th esp with 2 outs. I'm not sold on Simmons hitting 2nd either, but he could have a different approach hitting 2nd. Maybe we'll see a different approach from Simmons in the 2-hole. He won a batting title in the minors so he has hitting ability

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

What does pinch running have to do with getting on base? Your scenario fits exactly what we are saying Dawg61. There's a reason that guy that's PR isn't starting and the guy that actually got on base is.... Yeah speed is better once you get on base but it's more important to get there first. So when you need speed and only speed AKA late in the game you put it in AFTER the better hitter has gotten on.

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Pinch running is a glimpse into every manager ever that they value speed on the basepaths. KB21 said it makes no difference that it only matters to get on base. My argument is that the great speed more than makes up the difference once they both get on then the increased OBP the slower guy has. I am NOT saying the Braves should use BJ as the leadoff hitter the entire year because he sucks. I'm just arguing against the theory that OBP is all that matters. I'll take Billy Hamilton's .300 OBP over La'Stella's .400 OBP all day every day.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Awwwww......did I hurt your wittle insecure feelings again?

You talking about someone trying to get "cool" points is laughable considering you lead the board in "hey, look at me! Look at all the things I was right about!!!" threads started by someone.

1. I do talk about stolen base percentages, but I also talk about them in the proper context. Something you routinely fail to do when talking about statistics.

2. We'll see how Upton finishes things out. If he continues to perform like he has he can certainly change his numbers.

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You didn't address your statement on 49 extra runs being "negligible". I would like an explanation on how you came to that conclusion.

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Pinch running is a glimpse into every manager ever that they value speed on the basepaths. KB21 said it makes no difference that it only matters to get on base. My argument is that the great speed more than makes up the difference once they both get on then the increased OBP the slower guy has. I am NOT saying the Braves should use BJ as the leadoff hitter the entire year because he sucks. I'm just arguing against the theory that OBP is all that matters. I'll take Billy Hamilton's .300 OBP over La'Stella's .400 OBP all day every day.

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You're missing the point I'm making. If EVERY MANAGER values speed above getting on base then there wouldn't be that need to PR because the speed would be STARTING. Every manager seems to agree with us. Obviously speed is preferable once on base all things equal, but it's not worth .100 points of OBP.

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Originally Posted by KB21

Show me the numbers that prove having speed creates more runs scored than getting on base does? The threat of a stolen base or more speed to go from 1st to 3rd means very little when the players hitting behind you hit a lot of extra base hits.

Here's what you will get if you continue to hit BJ Upton #1 and Andrelton Simmons #2. Freddie Freeman batting with no one on base. I'd much rather have Freddie Freeman hitting with a runner on base 40% of the time than him hitting with a runner on base less than 30% of the time.

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On MLB Network, they were talking about the hitting/offense crisis in baseball right now, and one of the things that they talked about was speed as a way to create more runs/offense. Very interesting discussion. They talked about how speed can change the momentum of a game and it changes the way a pitcher attacks the hitter and pitches. All of the ex-MLB players agreed on this.

If you are a good baserunner, as good baserunning doesn't necessarily mean the fastest, and you can steal bases for your team, you can increase the chances of scoring for your team. A runner on second with no one out has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first with no one out. If you want stats that back it up, look at the run expectancy tables. If you have a guy that can take an extra base on a single and get to third from first rather than just to second, you open up a lot more scoring options as well because then wild pitches, balks, and if there are less than two outs a sac fly comes into play.

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

You didn't address your statement on 49 extra runs being "negligible". I would like an explanation on how you came to that conclusion.

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0.3 runs a game = less than 1 run a game. Less than 1 run a game = basically the same since you don't score runs in percentages.

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Pinch running is a glimpse into every manager ever that they value speed on the basepaths. KB21 said it makes no difference that it only matters to get on base. My argument is that the great speed more than makes up the difference once they both get on then the increased OBP the slower guy has. I am NOT saying the Braves should use BJ as the leadoff hitter the entire year because he sucks. I'm just arguing against the theory that OBP is all that matters. I'll take Billy Hamilton's .300 OBP over La'Stella's .400 OBP all day every day.

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And I will win a lot more games with La Stella leading off than you will with Billy Hamilton leading off, particularly since Hamilton's stolen base percentage is barely at the break even mark at 74.4% (75% being the break even mark).

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Originally Posted by KB21

Show me the numbers that prove having speed creates more runs scored than getting on base does?

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Show you the numbers that prove it is better to have a fast runner on 1st over a slow player? Is that what you are asking me? Seriously? So speed has no value whatsoever on offense now? Ok genius

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

You're missing the point I'm making. If EVERY MANAGER values speed above getting on base then there wouldn't be that need to PR because the speed would be STARTING. Every manager seems to agree with us. Obviously speed is preferable once on base all things equal, but it's not worth .100 points of OBP.

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There aren't a lot Rickey Henderson's, or even Vince Coleman's out there right now. What's Shafer hitting? .182?

But I do think you are going to start to see some more Billy Hamilton's in the future with the way offense is going.

2004 ALCS GAME 4

Most famous stolen base I can remember. 9th inning Kevin Millar (very slow.. 7 career SB.. .383 OBP) leads off the inning with a BB. Dave Roberts (very fast..243 career SB.. .337 OBP) pinch runs and steals 2nd leading the Red Sox on a historic comeback. You would have let Roberts lead the inning off 61?

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

On MLB Network, they were talking about the hitting/offense crisis in baseball right now, and one of the things that they talked about was speed as a way to create more runs/offense. Very interesting discussion. They talked about how speed can change the momentum of a game and it changes the way a pitcher attacks the hitter and pitches. All of the ex-MLB players agreed on this.

If you are a good baserunner, as good baserunning doesn't necessarily mean the fastest, and you can steal bases for your team, you can increase the chances of scoring for your team. A runner on second with no one out has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first with no one out. If you want stats that back it up, look at the run expectancy tables. If you have a guy that can take an extra base on a single and get to third from first rather than just to second, you open up a lot more scoring options as well because then wild pitches, balks, and if there are less than two outs a sac fly comes into play.

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Speed has very little to do with that though. Speed does not equal good base running. Jordan Schafer has great speed, but he's a horrible base runner.

The thing with BJ is that he is actually a very good base runner. He just isn't on base enough to utilize that tool.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

0.3 runs a game = less than 1 run a game. Less than 1 run a game = basically the same since you don't score runs in percentages.

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Folks when I talk about a lack of logic when opposing me in these debates this is what I'm referring to.

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Show you the numbers that prove it is better to have a fast runner on 1st over a slow player? Is that what you are asking me? Seriously? So speed has no value whatsoever on offense now? Ok genius

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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ses-lack-value

Overall, there is very little value to the stolen base, as there is more risk that you run into an out. There is clearly not as much value in a stolen base as there is in getting on base in the first place.

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Originally Posted by KB21

And I will win a lot more games with La Stella leading off than you will with Billy Hamilton leading off, particularly since Hamilton's stolen base percentage is barely at the break even mark at 74.4% (75% being the break even mark).

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Does that percentage factor in being picked off? Btw BJ Upton and his shit OBP has 41 Runs scored and La'Stella and his .360 OBP has 11 runs scored. Billy Hamilton 41 Runs and 34 SB, Todd Frazier 53 Runs and 13 SB, La Stella 11 Runs (9 before today) and 2 SB. And yes we all know La'Stella has a lot less ABs. Before today he only had 9 runs scored. 9!!