Our path to a Regional...

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Originally Posted by BigDawg81

Warren Nolan has State finishing 16 - 14 in SEC play. I do not what there formula or analytics they use but I have a hard time seeing going 11 - 4 the rest of the way.

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sweep mizzou and win 2 in the other SEC series. It's easy math

I don’t know about breathing room but I wouldn’t be surprised if State sweeps Florida cause they are 1-11 outside of Missouri which might be the worst baseball team in SEC history. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Florida wins the series.

Florida has talent. So do we. I think we win the series. Keep winning series and we will be fine

I can see a path to a regional this year honestly. There is talent and when things are clicking and we play error free baseball we look good. Don't leave the pitchers out to there too long and we can compete with some good teams..... good teams.

I also see the path to more underachieving, mediocre, baseball.

Well if you're close to 15-15 they do look at how you finish the season. Id we finish really hot and go deep in the tourney then we can pull an OM and get in.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Only a failure if we dont make a Super. Could he keep his job with a Regional Final? Maybe. Getting in and making a Super means we've had a good season- finishing in the Final 16.

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The depth and total number of quality SEC programs is also why we are not going to be able to base successful seasons on whether or not we host a Regional or Super Regional either.
If 14 teams make the post season, there is no way that the Selection Committee lets more than 7 SEC teams host. We saw that last year.
Moving forward is it going to be all about where you finish, not where you play the games outside of Omaha.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

The depth and total number of quality SEC programs is also why we are not going to be able to base successful seasons on whether or not we host a Regional or Super Regional either.
If 14 teams make the post season, there is no way that the Selection Committee lets more than 7 SEC teams host. We saw that last year.
Moving forward is it going to be all about where you finish, not where you play the games outside of Omaha.

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It is frustrating not to have post season at The Dude but I will take Omaha over having big Regionals.

I don't see us winning 9 conference games the rest of the way, but I also don't care since our fans have accepted mediocrity already anyway.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

I don't see us winning 9 conference games the rest of the way, but I also don't care since our fans have accepted mediocrity already anyway.

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you didnt see us beating Bammer either. I'll be very surprised if he dont get to 14 wins. We have a solid shot at 15

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Originally Posted by Coach34

you didnt see us beating Bammer either. I'll be very surprised if he dont get to 14 wins. We have a solid shot at 15

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I didn't say anything about that series I don't think but hell, I can't remember. We own AL, so nothing would've surprised me in that series. FL is another we should win, but I won't be surprised if we don't. That's where I'm at. I think we still miss out on post season right now and a still think this is a mediocre SEC team at best. We could also win a couple games in the tournament and make post season in a rough regional if things fall right. This is what State baseball is now.
But if football starts moving forward, I'm good with it.

I think we get into a regional.
And it would not surprise me if we are in a super.

We are old. Good bullpen.
Our pitching numbers and hitting are top half of league, and a top half of the sec team is capable of winning a regional.

This lineup and pitching roles has at least 2 more sec wins and beats Troy.

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Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

It is frustrating not to have post season at The Dude but I will take Omaha over having big Regionals.

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One thing is we've really only hosted a regional 4 or 5 times since you've had to earn them. Back in the old days you could just outbid folks and get them and didn't have to be a top 16 seeded team. I can remember several times where we were the 2 seed at our own regional.

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Originally Posted by maroonmania

One thing is we've really only hosted a regional 4 or 5 times since you've had to earn them. Back in the old days you could just outbid folks and get them and didn't have to be a top 16 seeded team. I can remember several times where we were the 2 seed at our own regional.

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Since they went away from the bid process, which I think was when they introduced Super Regionals ('99), we have hosted 6 Regionals and 3 Supers. And one of the Supers was because we won the FSU regional as a 2 and Clemson won the Myrtle Beach Regional as a 2 and we got the nod over them.

UPDATE: After pulling 1 game ahead of the pace last week, we dropped back this week.

We can still get to 13-17 by taking 1 against Auburn and 2/3 in each of our last 3 series. I'm less confident than ever that 13-17 gets us into a Regional though, so we probably need to go 8-4 over the last 12, not just 7-5.

Chances look bleak. We blew a big opportunity this weekend.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

• ❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
• ✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
• ❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
• @ Auburn - again maybe 1
• Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
• Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
• @ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

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I'm more concerned long term now that we know this will be an annual proceeding as long as we have the same HC. Some days we execute like a 4 seed, some days like a 3 for a moment or two.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

UPDATE: After pulling 1 game ahead of the pace last week, we dropped back this week.

We can still get to 13-17 by taking 1 against Auburn and 2/3 in each of our last 3 series. I'm less confident than ever that 13-17 gets us into a Regional though, so we probably need to go 8-4 over the last 12, not just 7-5.

Chances look bleak. We blew a big opportunity this weekend.

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RPI at 48 as I type this. That said we can easily sweep Mizzou and get that 14th win so there is a still a path.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

UPDATE: After pulling 1 game ahead of the pace last week, we dropped back this week.

We can still get to 13-17 by taking 1 against Auburn and 2/3 in each of our last 3 series. I'm less confident than ever that 13-17 gets us into a Regional though, so we probably need to go 8-4 over the last 12, not just 7-5.

Chances look bleak. We blew a big opportunity this weekend.

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I don't like our chances at 13-17. Our conference schedule is fairly weak compared to other SEC schedules. If we drop another non-conference game that will hurt. We need to shoot for 14-16 or 15-15. If we win 2 games in each series against Auburn, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, we will be 12-15 headed into the final Missouri series. We should win at least 2 against Missouri.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

RPI at 48 as I type this. That said we can easily sweep Mizzou and get that 14th win so there is a still a path.

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What would losing a game to Mizzou do to our RPI? It feels like we need to sweep them along with getting to 13 at a minimum.

we must have 12 wins before we see them or it won't matter

If we are 10-17 going into the Missouri series and sweep Missouri to drop them to 0-30, I don't think the committee is going to put much respect into that resulting 13-17 record.