ESPN FPI Says We Go 4-8 or 5-7

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

Or ... not see your own problems and assume everyone else not named Bama sucks. Most years this board thinks we will waltz thru AM/AU and our always horrible other SEC East opponent with LSU as a tossup and the icing.

ETA: And for some reason ... it never quite works out that way.

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I don't sense that this board consistently feels this way. I would say this board has people normally on both sides & some in the middle.

I don't see people consistently saying we'll waltz through A&M, but up until last year we had beat them 3 years in a row. So maybe those people right.

Additionally, we usually play Auburn very well & frequently win against them in DWS. So again, when we play Auburn at home, it's not a stretch to think we may win that game.

I just don't get your point at all

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

ETA: And this with a whole new coaching staff and no spring workouts or practice.

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Again, you can take whatever side of this you want & you seem to be taking the negative side of it.

Other teams are going through similar issues as us in this regard, so we'll see.

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Originally Posted by MaroonFlounder

I just hope that by the end of the season, we will be able to say Cohen made the right hire.

So many things often look promising, in multiple sports not just football, only to turn out to be a big disappointment.

I think we look better than MoHead on the scoreboard, yet still get crushed by Bama, LSU, Aub, A&M, and likely whomever the rotating SEC East opponent is...

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So we are going to get crushed by Mizzu ??

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Originally Posted by confucius say

Who on here has said we will go 5-0 against Aggie, auburn, OM, Mizzou, KY? I have not seen that, much less a lot of folks.

I've seen more people (Liverpool, coach34) say 5-7,6-6 than people say 10-2.

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It’s silly .. No one has said 10-2... hell I haven’t seen anyone say 9-3
the biggest sunshine pumper I guess is me.. that thinks we have a shot to go 8-4 ..

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Originally Posted by confucius say

Who on here has said we will go 5-0 against Aggie, auburn, OM, Mizzou, KY? I have not seen that, much less a lot of folks.

I've seen more people (Liverpool, coach34) say 5-7,6-6 than people say 10-2.

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2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

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You said all those words and at the end agree with what most here would say - 7-5 is probably most likely but could be 8 wins or maybe 6. The are probably the same amount of people that think 5 or less as there are that think 9+

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Originally Posted by RiverCityDawg

You said all those words and at the end agree with what most here would say - 7-5 is probably most likely but could be 8 wins or maybe 6. The are probably the same amount of people that think 5 or less as there are that think 9+

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Lol ... True. I really was only yanking Gun's chain a little to begin with.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

I don't sense that this board consistently feels this way. I would say this board has people normally on both sides & some in the middle.

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How quickly we forget. Before last season a clear majority of the board thought we had great chances to beat Auburn and A&M on the road and were going to win 8-9 games. Posts like "Rivers is as good as Sweat" and "Cole may be better than Abram" were prevalent. "JoMo has his QB" and "Fitz was the problem" were posted over and over.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

How quickly we forget. Before last season a clear majority of the board thought we had great chances to beat Auburn and A&M on the road and were going to win 8-9 games. Posts like "Rivers is as good as Sweat" and "Cole may be better than Abram" were prevalent. "JoMo has his QB" and "Fitz was the problem" were posted over and over.

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Sure and that was obviously wrong. Although, most of that was before tutor gate was known about & accounted for.

Also, it was tough to account for Joe's sucktatude. It was really difficult to fathom how awful he was.

Leach is different. Perhaps it takes longer than one year to get this thing going, but he'a proven, great coach at multiple spots that are more difficult to win at than MSU, & in year 1 at MSU, he's got the most talented roster he's ever coached. That has to matter some.

To say we may win 7 or 8 isn't ridiculous, however, the lack of practice does bring in variables that absolutely no one knows how to account for.

I think we're going to see a crazy fall due to COVID. Teams will lose & win games that they normally wouldn't

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Sure and that was obviously wrong. Although, most of that was before tutor gate was known about & accounted for.

Also, it was tough to account for Joe's sucktatude. It was really difficult to fathom how awful he was.

Leach is different. Perhaps it takes longer than one year to get this thing going, but he'a proven, great coach at multiple spots that are more difficult to win at than MSU, & in year 1 at MSU, he's got the most talented roster he's ever coached. That has to matter some.

To say we may win 7 or 8 isn't ridiculous, however, the lack of practice does bring in variables that absolutely no one knows how to account for.

I think we're going to see a crazy fall due to COVID. Teams will lose & win games that they normally wouldn't

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7 wouldnt be ridiculous at all. But that is likely the ceiling. 8 would get Leach COY

Leach is a good coach but this is an unusual year with him getting no Spring practice and us really needing it with the jucos on D
Couple that with the change in Defenses
Then throw in NC State, Mizzou, and A&M return a helluva lot of starters. Kentucky also

But 2020 has been a crazy year and this Fall could be no different.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

How quickly we forget. Before last season a clear majority of the board thought we had great chances to beat Auburn and A&M on the road and were going to win 8-9 games. Posts like "Rivers is as good as Sweat" and "Cole may be better than Abram" were prevalent. "JoMo has his QB" and "Fitz was the problem" were posted over and over.

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Good answer ... better than mine +1.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Sure and that was obviously wrong. Although, most of that was before tutor gate was known about & accounted for.

Also, it was tough to account for Joe's sucktatude. It was really difficult to fathom how awful he was.

Leach is different. Perhaps it takes longer than one year to get this thing going, but he'a proven, great coach at multiple spots that are more difficult to win at than MSU, & in year 1 at MSU, he's got the most talented roster he's ever coached. That has to matter some.

To say we may win 7 or 8 isn't ridiculous, however, the lack of practice does bring in variables that absolutely no one knows how to account for.

I think we're going to see a crazy fall due to COVID. Teams will lose & win games that they normally wouldn't

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This is a fairly sound and reasonable post Gun. Somebody steal your password ****

I believe we win 6 and with a bowl win could get 7. I believe 6 regular seasons wins is very doable with a possibility of 7. If Leach gets us in a bowl in his first season I would consider that a good start and a great omen for the future once he get this roster he wants.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

I believe we win 6 and with a bowl win could get 7. I believe 6 regular seasons wins is very doable with a possibility of 7. If Leach gets us in a bowl in his first season I would consider that a good start and a great omen for the future once he get this roster he wants.

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To me it's how you get there.

I'm more than fine winning 6 games if that means scoring points against LSU, Auburn, & A&M but giving up too many on defense.

I just want to look explosive. We can build on that

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

To me it's how you get there.

I'm more than fine winning 6 games if that means scoring points against LSU, Auburn, & A&M but giving up too many on defense.

I just want to look explosive. We can build on that

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Yeah I can agree with that. Show competence and good game planning, playcalling, discipline and progress!

Why We'll win:
New Mexico: Talent.
NC State: We aren't losing to a team that went 4-8 in the ACC and is on the downswing
Arkansas: Talent gap is too big. Their new coach is not a miracle worker.
Tulane: Talent.
A&M: Texas recruited stars may be higher rated but they aren't built for real SEC football. Our strength will impose our will on them.
Alabama: We have a bye week before to prepare and we've seen Saban is having a hard time defensively adjusting to the new era of passing. Cupboard offensively may be as bare as it has been in a while in terms of experience.
LSU: Regression to the mean with a super bare cupboard for LSU.
Auburn: Gus has to find his 4 losses where he can. Bo Nix won't thrive in a hostile environment.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops is good at beating bad coaches. Mike Leach is not a bad coach.
Mizzou: Talent.
Alabama A&M: Talent.
Ole Miss: We aren't losing to them.

Why we'll lose:
New Mexico: Installing new offense has bumps. Team not playing together well.
NC State: Same as New Mexico except against team with a little bit more talent.
Arkansas: All hell breaks loose.
Tulane: Defense can't learn to stop the option. Leach's defense is as bad as feared.
A&M: Jimbo actually has shit come together and Aggie makes a run for top 2 in division.
Bama: Can't beat the refs in BDS. On top of well... bama.
LSU: Death Valley eats us alive week after Bama.
Auburn: Defense falls for Gus's tricks and is not what we had hoped.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops beats bad coaches. Our team doesn't get the offense / dc is bad.
Mizzou: See Arkansas.
Alabama A&M: At this point I'd rather COVID stop sports.
Ole Miss: We don't have enough men to field 11 on the roster after they've deliberately injured everyone.

Conclusion: Worst Case scenario is 5-7. New Mexico, Arkansas, Tulane, Missouri, Alabama A&M are gimmes. It would take a Leach not being the guy to be worse than this.

Games we should win: NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss. They'd be in the first category but they are on the road. Leach wins all 3 of these and he solidified himself as the right hire moving forward.

The other 4 ranked from best chance of winning to worst.
Auburn: Nothing impressive about this team. Nothing stands out. Somehow Gus will lose 4. Georgia and Bama are L's this year imo. That leaves 2 for MSU, A&M, LSU, and UNC. I think he beats LSU as his wtf win and loses to A&M. Between MSU / UNC / Bowl game for the 4th.
LSU: Due for a major regression. Also leaving Alabama alone at the top and opening the door again for a running mate to slide into the top two in the division. If this wasn't at LSU or the week after Bama, this would be above Auburn.
A&M: At some point this "talent" is due and gotta work.
Bama: Bama.

Door is wide open once again for MSU / Auburn / LSU / A&M to have someone break from the group and join Bama. Bama also inches ever closer back to the group as time goes. This door was open for MSU to be the running mate the past two years. Joe Moorhead not being the guy cost us that. Door is still open but it's a bit tougher now. I think A&M ultimately beats us to the punch for the next 2-3 years. If Leach is as good as we hoped though, it could be us.

Plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. This is sports and sports runs on hope. I choose optimism here because it's ultimately for fun and doesn't cost lives. You can choose pessimism and after the season is over / when shit goes haywire run your mouth about how you were right and we were crazy. If that's what brings you the most enjoyment out of sports, I'm sorry for you, but you do you I guess.

I'll just let myself slowly talk myself into the reasons we can win. 8 games on the schedule are very winnable already. What's 4 more. By September I'll have $50 thrown on Costello being the heisman and predict us to win 10 or more. Lot more fun than going in depressed and accepting this notion that we are a 4-5 win team when we've been recruiting our best ever and haven't won less than 5 since Croom.

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

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So with all that drivel your prediction is between 6-8 wins. Like most of the people on here...

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Originally Posted by Turfdawg67

So with all that drivel your prediction is between 6-8 wins. Like most of the people on here...

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8 for now. Probably 10-11 by September.

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Originally Posted by Turfdawg67

So with all that drivel your prediction is between 6-8 wins. Like most of the people on here...

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C'mon mane be original ** ... Someone already pointed that out.

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Originally Posted by RiverCityDawg

You said all those words and at the end agree with what most here would say - 7-5 is probably most likely but could be 8 wins or maybe 6. The are probably the same amount of people that think 5 or less as there are that think 9+

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Beat me to it. Should have read on down! Lol

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

Why We'll win:
New Mexico: Talent.
NC State: We aren't losing to a team that went 4-8 in the ACC and is on the downswing
Arkansas: Talent gap is too big. Their new coach is not a miracle worker.
Tulane: Talent.
A&M: Texas recruited stars may be higher rated but they aren't built for real SEC football. Our strength will impose our will on them.
Alabama: We have a bye week before to prepare and we've seen Saban is having a hard time defensively adjusting to the new era of passing. Cupboard offensively may be as bare as it has been in a while in terms of experience.
LSU: Regression to the mean with a super bare cupboard for LSU.
Auburn: Gus has to find his 4 losses where he can. Bo Nix won't thrive in a hostile environment.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops is good at beating bad coaches. Mike Leach is not a bad coach.
Mizzou: Talent.
Alabama A&M: Talent.
Ole Miss: We aren't losing to them.

Why we'll lose:
New Mexico: Installing new offense has bumps. Team not playing together well.
NC State: Same as New Mexico except against team with a little bit more talent.
Arkansas: All hell breaks loose.
Tulane: Defense can't learn to stop the option. Leach's defense is as bad as feared.
A&M: Jimbo actually has shit come together and Aggie makes a run for top 2 in division.
Bama: Can't beat the refs in BDS. On top of well... bama.
LSU: Death Valley eats us alive week after Bama.
Auburn: Defense falls for Gus's tricks and is not what we had hoped.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops beats bad coaches. Our team doesn't get the offense / dc is bad.
Mizzou: See Arkansas.
Alabama A&M: At this point I'd rather COVID stop sports.
Ole Miss: We don't have enough men to field 11 on the roster after they've deliberately injured everyone.

Conclusion: Worst Case scenario is 5-7. New Mexico, Arkansas, Tulane, Missouri, Alabama A&M are gimmes. It would take a Leach not being the guy to be worse than this.

Games we should win: NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss. They'd be in the first category but they are on the road. Leach wins all 3 of these and he solidified himself as the right hire moving forward.

The other 4 ranked from best chance of winning to worst.
Auburn: Nothing impressive about this team. Nothing stands out. Somehow Gus will lose 4. Georgia and Bama are L's this year imo. That leaves 2 for MSU, A&M, LSU, and UNC. I think he beats LSU as his wtf win and loses to A&M. Between MSU / UNC / Bowl game for the 4th.
LSU: Due for a major regression. Also leaving Alabama alone at the top and opening the door again for a running mate to slide into the top two in the division. If this wasn't at LSU or the week after Bama, this would be above Auburn.
A&M: At some point this "talent" is due and gotta work.
Bama: Bama.

Door is wide open once again for MSU / Auburn / LSU / A&M to have someone break from the group and join Bama. Bama also inches ever closer back to the group as time goes. This door was open for MSU to be the running mate the past two years. Joe Moorhead not being the guy cost us that. Door is still open but it's a bit tougher now. I think A&M ultimately beats us to the punch for the next 2-3 years. If Leach is as good as we hoped though, it could be us.

Plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. This is sports and sports runs on hope. I choose optimism here because it's ultimately for fun and doesn't cost lives. You can choose pessimism and after the season is over / when shit goes haywire run your mouth about how you were right and we were crazy. If that's what brings you the most enjoyment out of sports, I'm sorry for you, but you do you I guess.

I'll just let myself slowly talk myself into the reasons we can win. 8 games on the schedule are very winnable already. What's 4 more. By September I'll have $50 thrown on Costello being the heisman and predict us to win 10 or more. Lot more fun than going in depressed and accepting this notion that we are a 4-5 win team when we've been recruiting our best ever and haven't won less than 5 since Croom.

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NC State has a lot more talent than New Mexico and we are more likely to lose in Raleigh than lose to Arkansas.