Hacker, we started using the Kroger app to have our groceries delivered, if that is smn that you might want to look into. Cost $10 but well worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
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Hacker, we started using the Kroger app to have our groceries delivered, if that is smn that you might want to look into. Cost $10 but well worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Can we (US) get a 3rd straight day of deaths and cases dropping?
Correct, they told me to take Tylenol (low grade fever and body aches), drink plenty of water, get plenty of electrolytes, eat as best I could and rest. Call back if symptoms worsened.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Strange that they wouldn't test you. You're in the right age group, show symptoms, and there are supposed to be plenty of tests available.Quote:
Originally Posted by Extendedcab
Sunday and Monday reporting is almost always lower and I expect today's to be even lower due to the fact that yesterday was Easter. Our big jumps in new cases and deaths almost always falls on a Tuesday as the weekend's reporting catches up. If the trend of dropping continues into Tuesday and Wednesday, then that'd be a great sign.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Last Sunday (April 4th) is still the largest number of cases report; it was the high water mark for deaths, but got passed on April 7thQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
That's what I'm thinking also. I'd be kicking that doctor in his ass. They dropped the 101.5 fever requirement a long time ago in Mississippi.Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
Yeah, I just live a few blocks from my Kroger and hate to send someone in there for me. I'm mid thirties and no underlying conditions, so not in a high risk group. I've been thinking about doing pickup though.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
April 4 was Saturday, reporting from FridayQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Yeah, it was Saturday (oops). Point sorta remains though, cases and deaths dropped on April 11th, and they spiked (at time for deaths, still for cases) on the previous Saturday.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
ETA... holiday weekend though
Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
I have used the Kroger free pick-up and the Kroger (Instacart) delivery during this crisis and both are a great way to stay out of the crowds. They may be out of some things you want, but that's just the way it is now. Everything pretty much balanced out from one to the other. I felt sorry for the shopper delivery guy. He told me that the people freaking out was ruining him because this was his way of making a living , it hurt his average rating, and that one woman had gotten mad earlier because he couldn't get everything she wanted. I told him limited supply of groceries was not his fault, and gave him an extra $7 in addition to the Kroger tip on the bill. More products were available this past Friday on the pick-up. I scheduled the pick-up about a week prior too and I was able to get an early pick up time.
Yeah, my shortness of breath was scary last night. I didn't fall asleep until after 6am. Nights are just awful with this thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Extendedcab
There aren't enough tests. One of the nursing homes I'm familiar with didnt even test employees after a resident tested positive. Hell, the only way it couldve gotten there is from employees because it's been locked down for 6 weeks. They said there aren't enough tests.Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
(And they don't want to quarantine their entire staff)Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
So what do y'all make of the lack of deaths (good thing) in the 2 most populated states in the US, California and Texas? California currently sits at 19 per million, and Texas is at 11 per million. NY is #3 in population, and they currently sit at 513 per million. California has twice the Chinese population as NY ( http://chineseadvertisingagencies.co...ographics.html )
It's very simple. It's not as bad as they feared. We have way better healthcare in the US too.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I think this has been among us since December. So all the expected days are off. Obviously just my opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
The major areas of Texas started social distancing fairly early early(around March 9-12) ( Closed Houston Rodeo, canceled SXSW) and major businesses started work from home by mid March , but I know from anecdotal information that testing is WAY behind. I know of at least 10 people who were exposed and had symptoms but were not tested due to availability.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
After seeing the reports of how many are dying at home in New York, I want to wait and see the death by all causes vs history numbers before we start to declare victory just yet...
Or we are doing more to stop the spread than anyone thought....Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
But we knew that if we did this right, there would be those that don't understand how bad it would have been without shutting it all down...
That said, Harris County Texas with the largest medical city in the world, has a 7% death rate. If the number of cases is off by 10x, that's still a 0.7% death rate...and that doesn't add the died at home but never tested group...
https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com...5efcb7c07c6914
I tend to agree with you. I just don't think the Chinese discover this spreading through Wuhan in November and it didn't show up on American soil until January. Not with the way the world is connected. The Chinese first reported in December but they were tracking and denying this long before December 31.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
The Washington State senior center and the cruise line were just two of MANY entry points into the US. This virus had been in NYC a hot minute before the hospitals started getting flooded. It took hold in communities weeks before and spread from the travelers and to the vulnerable, non-travelers and general public silently during a time when the public wasn't even aware of what Covid-19 was...because China was still denying it. The influx was slow enough that it didn't raise alarms until NYC medical facilities were suddenly inundated. The screening procedures in December and January were basically non-existent in the US for travelers coming from abroad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SheltonChoked
One can still believe (even from the beginning of alllll of this) that it's not as bad as they feared and also understand where we are now and appreciate the benefits that social distancing has given. I don't see anyone arguing that there is no possibility that it may have been worse if social distancing and quarantining wasn't implemented.
Why try to make it sound like ones opinion must fall on one side or the other?
ThisQuote:
Originally Posted by StateDawg44
Virus has been about what I expected. Economic impacts are worse than I expected and getting worse still. I?m not talking about the stock market, either. Whole lot of folks that are still pretty comfortable are gonna be out of a job before the end of the summer.
Yep.Quote:
Originally Posted by StateDawg44
I think the IHME model (60k deaths model) is way too conservative.
First of all, the way this model works is that they selected a mathematical curve and added data to it. It doesn't take into account the fact that our new cases are still about the same as they were 10 days ago. It expects the tail end of the curve to be more like a freefall and I don't think that's going to happen.
You can look at Spain and Italy on this model and see how they're supposed to be down to 100-200 deaths per day right now, yet they're still around 600. It says they'll be under 100 deaths per day by next week.
Finally, for the US, it predicts we'll have ZERO deaths after June 27th. That would mean we'd have to virtually eliminate all new cases within about a month. Does anyone see that happening?
I would say there more then 23K death already. I suspect there are 1000's who died from it that died back in December and January before we really knew about it. . Again my opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
I agree with your first sentence, but for a different reason. People are dying that weren't tested.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
But regarding December / January, they've been going back and re-testing flu swabs / blood samples in Washington and California (probably other places too). They aren't finding any unknown cases before January 20th (the first known case in the US).
Not to nitpick but the model looks to ramp down on death rate more gradually than the ramp up. I do agree that a death rate of absolutely zero per day is hard to believe. But at the same time not sure if a death rate of, say, 10 per day after June really changes the story.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
If we're still at 60% (see Spain, Italy) of our peak new cases in a month, then about a thousand per day will still be dying on June 1st. They have us at 100 on June 1st.Quote:
Originally Posted by turkish
But let's look even closer to now. They have us at 1100 deaths on May 1st. I can almost guarantee we'll be at the same level of deaths we are now on May 1st because our new cases are still around 30k per day and it takes a couple weeks to die from this disease.
Most the deaths are coming from one region of the country. As that region starts going down, so do the deaths, maybeQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Same with US ... no??Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Yeah, I was referring to US, unclearlyQuote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
Yeah, but the cases in that region (understood you meant NYC area) haven't started going down yet. They've plateaued.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Italy peaked around 3 weeks ago. Still doing about 60% of their peak in new cases and deaths.
https://i.imgur.com/q5ICUtQ.png
You can clearly see how off target that model is for Italy. It projected 192 deaths today. 385 was the model's top end projection. But 602 deaths were actually reported.
It projects 0 deaths for them going forward starting on May 2nd.
But they had 3000 new cases today. Some of those will die after May 2nd. And their cases aren't suddenly going to drop to 0 tomorrow.
How's it doing in the US and other countries? Italy and Spain are pretty much worst case outcomes.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
It's relatively accurate for us so far, but I think the tail of the curve drops too fast. That's what I'm trying to point out.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I think 60k is too low unfortunately
Mississippi schools closed for the rest of the year.
NY/NJ. 12,000 deaths just terrible. Rest of the country. 12,000. 48 states and 12,000 deaths. We need to get up in running with the economy. Places that have a high population of infection yes continue shut down. Rest of us it's time to get going
Then the whole country will look like NY/NJQuote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77
[tweet2]1250170016504430595[/tweet2]
NYC just listed ~3800 more "probable" deaths. Probable means it says covid on their death certificate but no test was done.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVmAHbhX...jpg&name=small