2 weeks, April 22nd? I'd take the under on that
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Here's my quick reasoning:
Death is a lagging indicator. It usually takes 2-4 weeks to die from this disease. What was happening with new cases 2-4 weeks ago? They were growing exponentially.
2000 people died yesterday. Even if that number stayed the same for 2 weeks, we'd still be at 41k deaths. But I do expect the daily deaths to go above 2000. 2500 a day for 14 days would put us at 48k.
If you don't like this thread, why do you keep clicking on it?
Can you explain how what Trump did is a good thing in regards to this virus and the structure of our government or are you just going to continue making ad hominem attacks?
Best case scenario, Trump delayed the rollout of the relief package. BEST. CASE. SCENARIO. Please explain to me how you think this is a good move.
It's telling that all anyone has done is made ad hominem attacks and complained that their shouldn't be politics on here when this issue directly relates to the virus and American's wallets.
Dantheman4248 - "Speaking as someone who DOES work in healthcare... the guy Beardo responded to definitely doesn't actually do anything healthcare related. He probably works as a janitor/maintenance in a hospital and calls that healthcare. No way he's "on the front lines". (For the record, I'm not either.)"
I've asked you a few times already what it is that you do in healthcare since you had no problem attacking and discrediting me for saying I worked as a RN and you've not responded. You've called me a liar and said you actually do work in healthcare. You didn't like that it was possible that a front line healthcare worker could have a different viewpoint than you. I'm glad other people are seeing how out of touch you are.
The problem is he does not understand that he does not understand. Can't teach someone like that! No amount of explanation on this forum will change that. Instead of going to a truly political forum he continues to spew his vitriolic opinions and ignorance, which have been disproved many times here and even more thoroughly throughout history, here.
I don't like that a "front line health worker" would say the hysteria is solely due to the media. Hopefully by now you have changed your tune.
Without getting into specifics, I work with data, analytics, and emrs to help better streamline patient care across all fronts. I'm privy to some of the data and stats that I'm continually told on here that I have no clue about or am a dumbass.
I'm not the one out of touch. It's actually really rich for someone who blamed the media to say that. I'm curious if you still hold that opinion or you have gathered more data and changed your tune. I hope so.
I've told you that communism fails every time in history. Don't know what "vitriolic opinions and ignorance" I have that are disproven throughout history. I believe heaven is communist, one being has all the power and everyone else submits and is given equal utopia. I believe that humans can never achieve that because for communism to work, the ruling class has to be pure. Never will happen. But I also think that we can strive towards being better towards our fellow man. How we turn and hate the poor for not having money and being unable to contribute to society is silly when juxtaposed with how we hate the hoarders of toilet paper in this pandemic. Everyone needs TP. Everyone needs wealth. Why is one okay to hoard but the other not?
Do you think no one is filling that role? Seriously is that what you think?
There is a freaking Pandemic Response Accountability Committee. ONE of the people on that committee is being replaced and you're claiming Trump is removing oversight altogether? Are you serious? Change the channel.
Oversight is still being done by the same committee minus 1 human who will be replaced.
You didn't give a good reason for why we shouldn't disapprove, you attacked why I think we should vehemently disapprove. The best case scenario is that this delays rollout of the bill. Which is absolutely terrible in and of itself. What is the good reason for removing this guy? What different criteria does the same committee need to appoint someone else by to appease the Dictator so we don't have another person removed?
We shouldn't disapprove bc there's an entire committee doing it, not 1 human as you've suggested.
Perhaps the president doesn't want someone leading that committee that staged false claims that led to a phony impeachment scam that took the attention away from covid19. Dictatorship LMFAO
I will be interested to know how this years death total will compare to all other years
I think death totals will be down. The lady doctor (I can't spell Name) said yesterday that if someone test positive for the virus and dies regardless if it was a heart attack, cancer, or what ever they count it as Corona death. Other nation do not do that. They only count them if the virus actually kills the person. This why you are seeing such high number of deaths. If we counted like other nations this would seen near as bad.
The reason why I think death total will be down is partly because of that and less other diseases that are caught person to person are going to be down and less accidents.
So you analyzing health data is "working in healthcare", but someone like a janitor or maintenance tech who actually works in a hospital is not considered "working in healthcare"?
I can guarantee you that those housekeepers cleaning rooms are on the "front lines". They may not be as intimately related as respiratory therapists, nurses, MDs, etc. but they are a lot damn closer to the action than you are....
^^ He gets it.
While true to a degree, its fairly easy to delineate whether or not something like COVID-19 was the primary driver in the patients ultimate demise. Not many people are going to be coming in with a presenting diagnosis of heart attack and even be tested for COVID-19. Death certificates actually ask for the primary diagnosis for cause of death that a physician has to fill out. Obviously a lot of long-term diseases put you at higher risk to die from an infection like this, but its ultimately what is tipping most of these people over and I'd bet our numbers are fairly accurate.
That is probably happening. As is people dying at home of COVID 19 and not being counted. NYC most likely has under reported the totals. So the total death count could actually be lower or higher than what ends up getting reported. But I doubt it would be much in either direction. The reported numbers are probably close enough once after ones that arnt being counted and shouldn't be counted balance out.
I hate to see politics get so driven into this issue about under and overreporting. We have a lot of people on one side saying "the numbers are inflated" and a lot of people on the other side saying "the numbers are deflated". Both are most likely true. And it really shouldn't become a big talking point. The issues of total deaths not being accurate isn't based on politics like a lot of the other issues. It just depends on where the death occurs and how they are handling it there
The health committee chair in NYC says that ~250 people are dying in their homes every day that aren't being counted towards the covid death toll yet. The average before all of this was 25 per day.
In addition to the hundreds that are dying in hospitals every day.
It's just completely ignorant of the facts to think the total number of people dying is going to be down.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVF1H79U...pg&name=medium
This is a graph that shows the spike in deaths in Italy and Spain compared to previous years. I haven't seen anything like this for NYC yet, but it's going to look similar.
Yeah it would be hard to argue that NYC isn't under reporting. They obviously are.
LMAO. There are no words.Quote:
Originally Posted by deadheaddawg
I’m going to take the high road and not tell you how I really feel. If Hacker has said this, he’d kinda have a leg to stand on — not you.
I meant that point in particular about the underreporting and overreporting. I didn't mean the overall issue of COVID 19. It is impossible not to bring Politics into the whole picture of COVID 19, because government response impacts all of it...
….but the particular issue of under and overreporting is going to be a political issue and I hate to see it, because both are right. The numbers are not accurate and it is because some are not being counted that should and some are being counted that shouldn't. The issues of total deaths not being accurate isn't based on politics like a lot of the other issues. It just depends on where the death occurs and how they are handling it there
But if you want to bring politics into it and pick a side, it is most likely that the total numbers are being under-reported, not over-reported. In particular because NYC is most definitely under-reporting and that is where the bulk of deaths have occurred
And you dont have to take the high road. I honest to god dont care what you might think of me.
I dont think there is a benefit, I just think it is what it is. Like Hacker said, there daily deaths at home have sky rocketed since this. That isn't a coincidence.
Scores of ‘probable’ coronavirus deaths not counted in NYC tally
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/scores...d-by-the-city/
Dozens — if not hundreds — of coronavirus deaths in New York City will not be included in the Big Apple’s grim tally, because victims died at home without being tested, The Post has learned.
Luciano Todman — a 28-year-old with no underlying symptoms — died early on March 29 in his Bronx apartment after days of diarrhea, vomiting, difficulty breathing, his mother told first responders, according to police sources.
In Flushing, 80-year-old Ho Louie was sent home from the hospital, where his doctor said it would be safer, after four days fighting coronavirus-like symptoms. He died on April 1 just before 11 a.m., sources said.
Another Queens man was found unresponsive in his apartment on April 3, according to sources. The 50-year-old Thokmey Thokmey had tried a few days earlier to get tested but was turned away at the hospital after it ran out of tests.
Todman, Thokmey and Louie are among the 80 death investigations involving people who showed signs of the pandemic COVID-19 between March 22 and Tuesday, according to more than 100 cases reviewed by The Post.
None of those cases, though, were included in the total count of New Yorkers claimed by coronavirus because they weren’t tested before dying.
And those are number only come from calls cops responded to.
At the same time, city paramedics were answering hundreds of more calls for cardiac arrest that include COVID-19 symptoms — with the death count worse than “wartime.”
“Out of the 12 [cardiac cases], I did on Sunday 10 had COVID symptoms. Flu-like symptoms, cough, etc. Nobody made it back. That’s going on all over the city,” said Anthony Almojera, vice president of FDNY, EMS union local 3621.
“There’s gotta be 200 a day… obviously are not all COVID, but they aren’t being tested,” he said.
The FDNY confirmed that paramedics are seeing more than 300 calls for cardiac arrest with “well over” 200 people dying each day. Typically paramedics would deal with around two dozen deaths on around 54 to 74 cardiac arrest calls.
On Sunday alone, EMS responded to 322 calls — but only 81 survived.
A total 2,192 people died during similar calls between March 20 and April 5 — compared to 453 during the same time last year.
“Obviously we deal with death but not on this level,” Almojera said. “It’s crazy.”
New York City’s death toll — which surged past 3,000 on Tuesday — only includes the number of confirmed cases. The city does not test people for the disease after they’ve died — even if they end up in the Medical Examiner’s Office after fighting coronavirus-like symptoms.
The OCME has reported these deaths to the Health Department as “probable” but it was unknown how many of these cases were, and the city wouldn’t say whether bodies were being tested when The Post asked two weeks ago. The OCME , it could severely affect the next person to contract the virus.
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