Is herd immunity without a vaccine, possible? Wouldn't that be /have been the case for Measles, mumps, chickenpox, smallpox, diphtheria, pertussis, typhoid, Yellow Fever, Malaria, Black Death, Plague etc?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
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Is herd immunity without a vaccine, possible? Wouldn't that be /have been the case for Measles, mumps, chickenpox, smallpox, diphtheria, pertussis, typhoid, Yellow Fever, Malaria, Black Death, Plague etc?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Brian Kemp is the dumbest Georgia Governor in modern history - and it ain't just this issue. Nathan Deal was a very good governor, and very pragmatic. I'd take him back in a heartbeat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
I'll take a half-stab at it by looking just at one sliver of one stat -- suicide.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
In 2018, 48,344 people died by suicide in the United States. It was the 10th leading cause of death here. I don't have a month-by-month breakdown to see how the rate shifts around holidays and seasons, but the average monthly figure would be 4,028.7. According to the WHO's stats, we have one of the highest (if not the highest) suicide rate among "wealthy" industrialized nations. (We rank No. 34 globally, which puts us just inside the top 25%.)
Suicide, like many -- or potentially all -- of the other categories of death listed on that infographic, is different than COVID-19 in that it does not have a "beginning." In other words, each year, the things that cause suicide are, relatively speaking, as prevalent as they were the year before. Again, relatively speaking. Disasters, economic decline, generational shifts, etc. all affect suicide rates. But the phenomenon of suicide does not originate or "begin" each year on January 1.
COVID-19, of course, is different. To our knowledge, it had never existed in a human being until December 2019. In the United States, the first known case of COVID-19 was on Jan. 21, 2020, and the first death occurred on Feb. 29, 2020. And, unlike suicide, its effect upon the population has increased exponentially every day since then.
If we start our calculation at February 29, 2020, then, COVID-19 in the United States has a death rate so far of roughly 4,510 per month.
Now, the things that make COVID-19 different from suicide also make this "per X amount of time" comparison difficult. In addition to exponential growth, COVID-19 carries with it tons of other variables including widespread (or soon-to-be-widespread, depending upon what state, county, and city you live in) social countermeasures, unknown effects of seasonality, post-infection health care (there's not really any after-the-fact health care options for suicide), and the eventual "peak" phenomenon.
But bottom line, in approximately one month since the first death here, it's monthly death toll would rank it in the top ten causes of death in the United States. That's pretty stout.
ETA: For what it's worth, here in Hamilton County, TN (where Chattanooga is), we had our first COVID-19 diagnosis on March 13, which was 20 days ago. We now have 63 confirmed cases and 6 deaths in the county. The last death (or maybe it was the 5th) was a child under the age of five. It's tough stuff, y'all.
Good work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
It'll be interesting (to me anyway) if the deaths keep going for over a couple months. Without any data, I'm figuring that the virus will take a big toll on the most vulnerable in its early stages, which sorta runs up deaths totals to start with that won't sustain.
Can't remember where I read it, but read something the other day saying it depends on the Ro and whether repeat infections are possible. For measles (I think; may have been mumps or chikcen pox), the guy calculated herd immunity would requires something like 90-95% of the population to have been infected and get immunity b/c the Ro was so high. With what they think the Ro is for COVID, he calculated that something like 70% of the population would have to get it.Quote:
Originally Posted by SheltonChoked
Spain looks poised to take over 2nd place in total cases (already ahead of italy in cases per million), and they're catching up to Italy big time in deaths per million.
But if immunity wears off like another corona virus the common cold, after a year or so, people could catch it again. We just dont know enough yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Have you ever been to Spain or Italy? The women there are drop dead hot. I would gladly take a shot at Corona for a chance at a fine italian lady. Thats the issue. Also, large portions of every major town are high density, close quarters.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
And COVID can be carried at the same time as the flu. So you could test positive for flu and miss the COVID if the flu test was positive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Most research has indicated little mutation for the amount of individuals it has passed through. It will probably end up much like the flu where it slowly develops a second strain and vaccine may have to be adjusted each season. With that said an article I read in Nature the other day interviewed several different research groups that suggested they are developing a one time vaccine much like the MMR.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
The Corona deaths have doubled in one week since this chart. The others would have risen about 2% (give or take for seasonal differences) during the same time. As others have noted, who knows how many Chinese deaths were not reported. Also, if you started the recording of deaths on Feb 1 or March 1, the ratio of Corona deaths to the others would be much higher.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
It depends on the disease and whether you are permanently immune to it once you have it. Remember mumps and measles used to be referred to as childhood diseases. Virtually everyone got them in childhood.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Tate Reeves just posted on Facebook -
Today is the first day of our shelter-in-place order. We will be addressing the state and taking questions on it at 3:30 PM. You can watch here on Facebook Live.
Shelter in place is just to make it "official". Nothing is really changing with it except the police will get involved if you're blatantly disobeying the guidelines. Plus there's a curfew.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Yep I know but it made some people freak out at the grocery stores again. Nothing unusual on the freaking out. Uncertainty and panic is not a good thing.
Makes you wonder where Kemp has been the past few weeks. Even 6 year olds know the methods of coronavirus transfer.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
Quote:
Originally Posted by yjnkdawg
Alabama's "Stay-at-Home" order starts tomorrow at 5 p.m. I don't know how that differs from shelter in place.
Drove by a Dirt Cheap store today and it was open and the sign says they will remain open. What makes them "essential"? I've never been in one of their stores.
Basically, a bunch of companies / associations lobbied to be considered essential. No actual reason other than $Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
I wish I could believe the reason was more noble than this. But I can't.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
BINGO!Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAJEDcPPmG4
https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...t-onset-03.png
Apologies in advance if this chart has recently been discussed. It shows new cases in Mississippi by date of onset of symptoms. The numbers in the grey box on the far right will get worse, but the overall trend indicates that new cases are trending downward.
This chart does look good but I think they should extend the grey area a few more days. We have a test lag of more than 7 days in some cases. It's looked like this for a while but then as the days pass more cases get added.Quote:
Originally Posted by HeCannotGo
The fact that it's been relatively flat is really good though.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ess-experiment
...
This is interesting to me... Swedish are carrying on.
Yeah, I was reading another article about Sweden earlier. Currently they have 3x as many deaths per capita as their neighbor Norway and their economy is tanking anyway. Norway locked down early and has been testing a shitload of people and seem to have it under control. Regardless of how it ends up, I think Norway vs Sweden will be a case study going forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Here's the article I read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-response
Do you have both countries' test numbers per capita? I thought locking down was to prevent spread. Norway has 991 cases per million to Sweden's 607. This could mean nothing though of tests per capita are totally differentQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Yeah, they added test numbers here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Norway 6x the tests per capita
That certainly accounts for the differenceQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
I have been tracking that chart and the grey box is wayyyyy to small. Yesterday they added cases as far back as the middle of March, although there weren't significant additions prior to I think March 23rd. Trend has held steady though even though cases keep getting added back. It's been relatively flat and until Friday when they added a bunch of cases to March 23rd, it looked like March 20th might be the peak. Guessing the cases added to March 24th through the 26th over the next few days will tell the tale.Quote:
Originally Posted by HeCannotGo
Only 2 countries (Italy and San Marino) have a death rate over 50 per million that have tested at least 10000 per million; this is a sample size of 23 countries. Of this 23 country sample, 12 have a case per million of over 1000. There's only 21 countries in the world with a 1000 cases per million. This data (IMO) supports my theory this virus is a lot more prevalent than the documented cases and the death rate is inflated
No doubt.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
This will sound insane...
But I kind of hope it is more prevalent BUT asymptomatic in most people so that we can build immunity more quickly.
Not insane at all. I hope the exact thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I agree. We really don't know how many people have had either no symptoms or mild symptoms and treated it on their own (with no medical visit or consultation), and therefore the State Health Departments and the CDC would not be aware that they even had the virus.
But muh numbers and graphs don’t lie.
183 new cases and 8 new deaths.
Like others, I suspect a sizable number of people have contracted and recovered from the virus never knowing they had contracted COVID-19. (Particularly early on in the pandemic.)
I have a family member in another state that is recovering at home. (He is a nurse and contracted COVID-19 at work.) I spoke with him and compared his symptoms with the symptoms I manifested a month ago which were sore throat, light cough, chills, fever and fatigue. Almost an exact match. The antibody test should come on line in a month or two and I suspect the data generated over time will be very revealing. No matter, the next few weeks are going to be very challenging for our nation. However, as we always have, we will endure because that is who we are.
Not saying this isn't some badass shit but ... Cuomo has been up there in his requirements of what will be needed. Will it reach that? Don't know. But I've thought all along there may be some very conservative (relative to worst case) scenarios being fed into the models.Quote:
Originally Posted by gtowndawg
But it also ain't over yet so don't really know yet.
Since I started following this guy it make me check Tennessee everyday. The model says there should be 4,870 hospitalized in Tennessee today (April 5). But Tennessee reports 311. And the model (4,870 in Tennessee as of today) assumes that EVERYONE is social distancing. In other words, the 4,870 for today would be the best case scenario for Tennessee. I drove my car Friday for the first time in 3 weeks. I'm doing my part but I'm getting more and more skeptical each day.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
Well ... the timing in the models could be off some that's why I'm reluctant to say it won't be that bad. So I wouldn't relax too much just yet ... the potential may still be there hidden somewhere. In another 2 to 4 weeks I think we'll see more identifiable trends and more reliable data forming. I also tend to think latitude with regard to heat/cold and humidity are affecting it some.Quote:
Originally Posted by gtowndawg
We definitely have slowed this down a whole lot as a country. Credit needs to be given that we've gotten our heads out of our asses and are starting to see the effects of social distancing. Still, crossed into .1% of the country *PROVEN* infected with this. About 3% of that subset dead. Figure as it goes we'll see slightly better results.
The exponential rate of growing is finally starting to hit its wall. Logarithmically we are starting to see this flatten. My fear was that we wouldn't see that until we broke the 1 million infected mark. Hopefully this continues to be the case and flattens more.
Updating my prediction, i think this will have about a 1.75% death rate among proven cases w/ hopefully no more than 2% of the country proven infected. (That would be only around 100k deaths) That would be an astounding recovery that we made from where we were looking at a few weeks ago. Hopefully people understand this as proof social distancing works and that it helped save lives. These next two months are going to be rough. Let's see if we can keep it up.