Good lord what break
Printable View
Good lord what break
Y?all as inconsistent as Cerantola has been. His stuff is filthy! I?m so rooting for him. He is a key piece of the puzzle to get to Omaha
If you want to take a 20 AB stretch and want to apply any statistical significance to that the K% better be damn north of 75%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
30% K rate in 20 AB's.... it's sheer stupidity to say that means anything.
If Cerantola figures it out he will be so nasty. Reminds me of the issues Cole Gordon had. Once he figured it out he became pretty amazing. Funny thing is Cerantolas stuff is way better
Disagree on key piece to Omaha. But I hope he continues to get midweek work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgcap
I hope Hatcher gets it going soon. But at this point, Cumbest has earned more AB's. So either Hancock to first and Cumbest to DH. Or Allen to first and Cumbest to RF.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex54
My boy Caleb getting an ab. He's gonna be a good one!
Totally agree at this point. But if he finds consistency we have an amazing help at closing doors in tough situations. Starting is probably over but consistent command he becomes so important in weekend situationsQuote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
No it’s stupid to say he hasn’t had an increase in his K’s when it’s false. To go from a 17.3% K rate over his first 75 AB’s to a 30% K rate is a jump and a concerning one. 12.7% higher over his last 20 AB’s. To go further, which I know is meaningless to you, Saber metrics only needs 60 PA to decided a K rate is meaningful stat and not just an anomaly. So a full third of that number of his last AB’s gives us a definite rise within that subset of data. If someone is striking out 75% of the time over 20 AB’s and you think it’s only then they are in a slump? You are cluelessQuote:
Originally Posted by Rex54
I agree if he maintains a 30% K rate over the next 40 AB's then you are on to something. But until then you are a moron, as your own post indicates. You can't take 20 AB's and extrapolate anything let alone such a minute jump! Which was my point, it would take a 75+% rate in that small sample to be meaningful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
Hatcher starting over Cumbest no longer can happen. Cumbest has earned it.
I mean holt shit the absolute stupidity. I guarandamntee you I could randomly pick 10 SEC hitters and 9 would have a 20 AB stretch during the season where their K% jumps 12% from their norm. I mean the absolute ****ing stupidity! Do you really maintain that a 20% K guy is going to automatically just K exactly 2 times every 10 AB's methodically throughout the whole season?! Of course not..... You might have two games where you K 5 times. You might have 4 games where you K once. It doesn't mean anything. It's sheer randomness of a baseball season. You can't cherry-pick 20 AB's and draw ANY significance unless someone damn near K's 20 times in those 20 AB's.
Dummy.
Sweet swing but too soft for SEC pitching, needs to stop being a puss.
NahQuote:
Originally Posted by Cowbell
Whatever some believe the talent of Hatcher and Cerantola are mandatory for winning. These 2 are so talented and with them playing too their potential is so imperative. I understand the questions but we need these guys.
#5 needs to get rid of his batting avg swing and start attacking as well.
TruthQuote:
Originally Posted by Schultzy
It’s not talent IMO it’s mindset.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgcap
Uh...that is exactly what is done in baseball. Every single day. Heck in game decisions are made on what players have done in that one game much less over 20 AB’s. This is EXACTLY what baseball does. It is all about subset of data collection and applying that knowledge to every single pitch, AB, and game, splits, etc., etc. etc. You are the only one showing your ignorance. 20 AB’s absolutely gives you very important information.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex54
A simple metric is using a couple points of his raw data for the season and that gives us an idea of how he is hitting. You take his average of .200 (.114 in SEC play), K rate for the year of 20% (23% in SEC play) and his walk rate of 7% (less than 3% in SEC play). Just with those few raw numbers we know his plate discipline has been absolutely horrible because those walk rates are at best below average and in SEC play anything below 4% is absolutely awful. That directly correlates to his contact or lack there of in his case since he is hitting only .200 (.114 in the SEC). The overall and SEC total K rate is actually the best of his stats of those 3, being considered average to below average. But with that increasing over the last 20 AB’s, and you see his average has plummeted .074 points since the LSU series. They work together to paint a picture of someone who is in a bad slump and his plate discipline is a huge factor with his K rate increase, decrease in walks (such as they were to begin with) and his average plummeting .074 points means that he is also having a lot of bad contact.
Again. I hope and pray that tonight gets him started because this type of slump is horrible to go through. But make no mistake he has been in a slump.
Sorry. That was the point I was trying to make. We need them to find the mindset to use their gifts. These 2 guys have amazing talent they just don?t trust it. Others struggle for a bit and come out of it. These 2 need to be trusted a bit longer. When they get it I say we are gonna say Holy hell!! I for one hope we give them a chance to climb out of their self doubt. I have no doubt they are difference makersQuote:
Originally Posted by Schultzy
I picture Marie Barone shaking her head as someone talks bad about Raymond...Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex54
Dead on balls accurate!Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
Where in this gibberish do you mention "exit velocity" or "piss-rod outs". This is why blind numbers are retarded, watch the damn games. Watch the ball explode off his bat. Team leader in doubles and you all want to bench him for a football player. Unreal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
Since you are one of these statfreaks, surely you understand BABIP. Coming into tonight Hatcher's was .240 on the year. College BABIP runs higher than MLB and Hatcher being more of a line drive ground ball hitter instead of flying out would normally run higher than college average. So we see there the massive impact of bad luck so far seeing as the ball is flying off his bat.
Hatcher 2018 BABIP - .333
Hatcher 2019 BABIP - .402
Hatcher 2020 BABIP - .340
Hatcher 2021 BABIP - .240 (screams unlucky!)
But go one and tell me how 2 extra K's in 5 games is "meaningful". Fool.
Is this guy Will James?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex54
I think his only path to help us is in the bullpen. IF he can become a one inning closer type that opens us up to using Sims and Smith both as long relievers. And then we have Preston Johnson and Parker Stinnett.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgcap
Actually his lower BABIP this season is telling us what we see when we chart his hits. Weak contact with a ton of pull contact into the defense and shifts. That is a major point of a decreasing BABIP in a hitter. But to be fair, with BABIP stat, that stat needs to be taken over about 800 balls in play to see a players average. So you also have to consider that his 2019 BABIP was well above what it should have been. What you look at during a single season is how big is a players BABIP difference from his average and what his chart is telling you. Is it a lot more points higher or lower? Is this season a natural adjustment from a season that was anomaly high or vice versa. Then we can start drawing a conclusion that they may have been lucky or unlucky possibly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex54
When trying to determine if there will be a regression or upward swing you do have to take care that it may not happen during a college or HS season as they just don?t get the enormous plate appearances that you do over 162 games in the majors. Also, that stat is slightly more meaningful for a pitcher vs hitter as the hitter has more control over the outcome vs a pitcher. So the fact his BABIP is so low and coincides with his low AVG. (it?s 3-4 hits difference between the 2), then compare his OPS to that (lowest by far of anyone with at least 50 AB?s on the team, including Debrule, not even .600)...whatever lack of luck you think he is having, it?s minuscule at best. Let?s be generous and say it?s 4-6 hits this season. But that?s over the whole season. Still does not change he has had an increase in K?s which is has impacted his BABIP as well. More strikeouts, higher the BABIP. That is completely on the hitter
He struck out 4 times just this weekend...it was a terrible series overall for him. And he would tell you the same thing.
Good questionQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Look curveball and adjust to the fastball lol!Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Based on the 5 year old name calling, I'd say yesQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Y'all morons, fools, idiots...since the sex change, its Jill Wames now.**Quote:
Originally Posted by KOdawg1
It never gets old! LOL!Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
I had forgot about that...that was a classic show of ignorance. LolQuote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Man this Hatcher talk is old, I wish it was more about the game than a player. Seems all pitchers did ok (I know it's a Swac team), and we finally hit the ball ok (again I know who we played), LOL.
We didn't hit the ball well until the 6th or so inning which is concerning. That SWAC team held us to one earned run through 5 or so innings with about 3 hits. That isn't what a top 5 team should be doing with a SWAC team. It also wasn't just one pitcher having a career day. They changed pitchers almost every inning just like we did.Quote:
Originally Posted by basedog
I agree, my point was let's move on about the Hatcher slump. Seems this team has a pattern of not getting off to a fast start. We are not going to hit much or score many runs as it looks, lets hope we can continue to pitch well and improve on defense. Allen only hitter in lineup hitting over .300, that is tough.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
I agree, I've made my point that you need to watch the games to see the above-average hard contact, ground balls that move the runners, etc and not just look at the stat line. Apologies for calling you fools (except Beardo who is probably watching Captain Marvel for the 100th time). We're a national title contender and are primed for another big sweep this weekend. Hail State.Quote:
Originally Posted by basedog
In SEC play, we only have Rowdey Jordan hitting above 300 (at 333).Quote:
Originally Posted by basedog
We have 5 players below 220 (Tanner, Skinner, Dubrule, Hancock, and Hatcher)
We have 4 players at or below 200 (Skinner, Dubrule, Hancock, and Hatcher)
Mendoza Starters By SEC School (SEC ABs Only)
UK - 5
UT - 4
UF - 4
MO - 4
SC - 4
MS - 4
AR - 3
AU - 3
UA - 3
LS - 3
AM - 2
UG - 1
VU - 0
OM - 0
FYI
300+ Hitters by SEC School (SEC ABs Only)
VU - 4
UM - 3 (Elko included)
UT - 3
AU - 3
TAM - 3
UA - 3
AR - 2
UG - 2
MO - 2
UF - 2
UK - 2
MS - 1
LS - 1
UG - 0
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer
So what you are saying is - in general pitching in the SEC is ahead of hitting, and that hitting right now is a good bit about who you have played so far. Outside of Vandy and OM no one looks like they are outstanding on offense right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer
I'm afraid for us and others in the Sec, things are gonna get tougher with all the competition in the league. I'm a little concerned about this weekend as well as the next 3 series. It's gonna tell us a lot about our team.