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We are luckily getting a lot of credit for barely making it last year with the same roster. Bracketologists see that and just assume we will figure it out and get in. If we had not made it last year I think at this point most would have us outside looking in.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
You think that's what they're doing instead of looking at our solid net, BPI, rpi, and kenpom?Quote:
Originally Posted by MoreCowbell
With all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about. Every metric out there has us a likely NCAA Tournament team.Quote:
Originally Posted by RezDog7
I think people are just getting confused by how shitty we look when we play shitty. Some of that is selective memory. Good basketball teams have inexplicably shitty games every year. Some of it is we really do seem to have a bigger drop off than most teams when we play shitty. Usually that's going to be a sign of poor coaching or poor attitudes. Sometimes it's just the way a team is built and being really dependent on one thing (like making 3's) that it just derails the team when it's not working that night. I honestly don't know what this team's deal is. Last year we seemed to show up and play D almost every game. We played like shit sometimes because we just couldn't hit the broad side of a barn shooting, but seemed to still play D and work the offense even when the shooting didn't give us a real chance. Seems like this year we just lose intensity when things don't go well. Or maybe just don't have intensity so things don't go well. Just odd to have so many returning players and seem to take a step back on something that seems like a character issue. Maybe last year everybody was just excited to have good coaching and responded really well, and now are letting off some and not responding to Jans requirements' as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Personally I think shitty is "not even going to make the NIT." Rick Ray's teams were shitty. After the first 2 years, none of Howland's teams were shitty, and definitely neither of Jans's NCAA teams.
Maybe we're just too strict on ourselves.
This team is not bad at all, they just are too flawed to be SEC championship contenders. We have beaten two legit contenders and likely should have beaten Bama in Starkville too. but we lack the consistency that the top teams have.
This team has all the makings of a Top 30-40 team that on its best day can beat almost anyone and on its worst day can get whooped or take a bad loss.
We have taken our lumps against a hard schedule and now it is time to take care of business in games we will be favored in.
And two top 10 wins... smh.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Um noQuote:
Originally Posted by MoreCowbell
This!Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
We do not have much wiggle room anymore and have to win these upcoming games, but yes, we are 100% a tourney team if the season ended today.
Look I am all for this team and have been but we have been disappointing overall. Our net is ok, nothing great. We are 3-6 in conference right there next to Ark, Vandy and Mizzou and cannot win on the road. We have 2 good wins but also 2 terrible losses.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I definitely think making it last year with same returning roster plays a factor. When before the season experts already had us penciled in it carries weight for sure.
Look at Florida. Better overall record, conference record, NET, RPI, KenPom, beat us head to head and we are in ahead of them. Difference? We made it in last year.
Florida has 1 Q1 win. We have 3
This is last year's team, except for Hubbard failing in our lap and now DJ (who is now injured) is out. Jan's recruiting last year and portal evaluations and signees did nothing to improve this team from last year. Taylor, a poor fit and gone. Jimmy Bell, a beast in OOC games. Little help in SEC play. DJ's minutes will probably go to a walk on. Fort not a difference maker. Murphy in doghouse and will probably hit portal at season's end and can't say I blame him. Tolu's game has been figured out by opposing SEC coaches. Jans has to prove he can recruit and find an offensive identity next year. Today's game is not defense first or you don't play. Players want to score & play in an exciting offense. This team is again what it is. Late seed for NCAA Tourney and one and done. They are very hard to watch and get excited about at times for even two games in a row. We will be there for the GA game. Worried as our mediocre roster now has injuries.
Delete
Q1/Q2 record: FLA 4-7 MSU 5-7Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
You just disregarded every other metric that you used for us being in. I am not bashing this team just stating my opinion and backing it up with examples.
I put $750 on us to go 9-9 in conference. Thought that was easy money. Have been high on this team all year and we can beat anybody. Does not mean we have not been disappointing.
Our resumes are very similar, but we have 2 top 10 net wins. They don't have that. Our high end wins are very pretty on a tourney resumeQuote:
Originally Posted by MoreCowbell
You're probably going to win that bet. Congrats!Quote:
Originally Posted by MoreCowbell
#44 still.
We picked up a Q2 win with Rutgers now at #100 .
Big games today...
Georgia (#88) at us (-8.5)
North Texas (#86, -4.5) at Tulsa (#177)
Nebraska (#52) at NW (#60, -5.5)
And we lost to #197 at home. Can't believe we lost that game.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
That game is single-handedly putting us on the bubble. We would probably be a 7 or 8 seed without that loss to date since we have those UT and Auburn wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
Being 3-6 in the SEC right now has a lot to do with us being on bubble also
Must win tonight
A loss tonight would change everything. Remember 12 years ago when a home loss to Georgia killed our season and Stansbury's career.
100% must win tonight.
Yep. Our record isn't great. We are in NCAA consideration because of who we have played. The next 3 games don't help the strength of schedule or Quad opportunities. So they have to be WINS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
That 2012 Georgia game started the collapse but we still almost saved it. And then lost to them again in the first round of the SEC Tourney. That one was for sure the nail in the coffin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Yes, goes without saying tonight (and the two after it) are must win. Three straight Q3 games, gotta have all three of them.
What is the status of Hubbard and DJ?
Hubbard is good to go, he came back in the other night. DJ is probably out 2 weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
I believe we are the only team in the country that played 8 Quad 1 games in the first 9 conference games. All of our conference games were Quad 1 except for Vandy. Obviously, the reason South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Florida were Quad 1 is because they were on the road.
We have 9 games remaining. The only Quad 1 games will be Auburn, Kentucky (maybe), and Texas A&M (maybe because it's on the road).
So now it's time to pile up wins. We started off 3-6. Now we need to go 6-3.
After Georgia and Missouri, we don't play for 7 days (against Arkansas). There is no midweek game next week. So maybe DJ won't miss as many games.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Yep, 6-3 and we in. 5-4 and we got to win 1-2 in SECT for shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by somebodyshotmypaw
Analytics have us favored in the next four. At least 65-35 in all four. Then the fifth at LSU is 50-50.
Dang shame that dj got hurt right before this stretch or winnable games. Oh well, hopefully Murphy, Scott, and/or jones step up. Be great if one steps up and can hit some outside shots to really open it up for toluQuote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Disagree. I think 8 wins gets us in. We go 9-9? We'll be a damn 7-8 seedQuote:
Originally Posted by R2Dawg
Play both bigs together some. Work Hi/lo in the paint with them and make the other 3 stay behind the arc. That will give teams problemsQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I think we will start Hubbard, Moore, Jones, Cam, Tolu tonight. And I think Jones give you another shooter and better offense than DJ.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
But I think Hubbard, Moore, Cam, Murphy, Tolu could be your best offensive grouping of Murphy picks up where he left off.
6-3 we are in. I think if we go 5-4, we are still probably in. But I just don't want to chance it.Quote:
Originally Posted by R2Dawg
#44 (no change)
There was some good movement for us last night...
NW up to #55 from #60. This is close to becoming a Q1 win. They host #100 Penn state Sunday.
North Texas up to #77 from #86. This is close to becoming a Q2 win. They travel to #45 SMU Sunday.
Tonight's games...
Arizona state at Colorado (-15.5)
Washington st (-8.5) at Oregon st
Rutgers is #98, so be pulling for them to get to #75 for a Q2 win.
aTm lost 5 spots after winning at mizzou last night. Not sure what their opponents did, but that's concerning
Yikes. That is kinda sucky. I know they are really bad but that is a tough reward for winning on the road.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
If that's the case we'd likely fall 15-20 spots with a lossQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7