Faint bowl hopes update

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11-24-2023, 08:23 PM
confucius say

Here are your 15 games tomorrow. The teams at issue are listed first. Root against them.
I believe we need no more than 7 to win tomorrow. Right MSUdawg1200?
Nine are favored. Six are underdogs.
So I believe if the underdogs lose, we need two of the favorites to lose.

11:00
UCF -14 v Houston
Navy +20 at SMU
NIU -20 at Kent St

1:00
ODU -3 vs Ga St

2:00
ULL -12.5 vs ULM

2:30
VT -2.5 at Virginia
Illinois -5.5 vs Northwestern
BYU +17 at Ok St
Marshall -2 vs Ark State

3:00
Wash St +17 at Wash

6:00
Fla +6.5 vs FSU

6:30
USCe +7.5 vs Clemson
USF -6.5 vs Charlotte

9:30
Cal +9 at UCLA

10:00
CSU -5.5 at Hawaii
11-24-2023, 08:23 PM
msudawg1200

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

Here are your 15 games tomorrow. The teams at issue are listed first. Root against them.
I believe we need no more than 7 to win tomorrow. Right MSUdawg1200?
Nine are favored. Six are underdogs.
So I believe if the underdogs lose, we need two of the favorites to lose.

11:00
UCF -14 v Houston
Navy +20 at SMU
NIU -20 at Kent St

1:00
ODU -3 vs Ga St

2:00
ULL -12.5 vs ULM

2:30
VT -2.5 at Virginia
Illinois -5.5 vs Northwestern
BYU +17 at Ok St
Marshall -2 vs Ark State

3:00
Wash St +17 at Wash

6:00
Fla +6.5 vs FSU

6:30
USCe +7.5 vs Clemson
USF -6.5 vs Charlotte

9:30
Cal +9 at UCLA

10:00
CSU -5.5 at Hawaii

You are correct
11-24-2023, 08:45 PM
Smitdawg

Are we sure that Jacksonville State is eligible before 5-7 teams this year? They are in year 1 of their transition to FBS. James Madison is in year 2 of their transition, which is why they can get a bowl. Last year, in year 1, James Madison was denied a bowl, allowing Rice to get a bowl at 5-7. I guess it is possible that the NCAA changed that this season.
11-24-2023, 08:58 PM
CadaverDawg

So where would you guys put our percentage chances of making a bowl at the moment?
11-24-2023, 09:00 PM
Quaoarsking

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

So where would you guys put our percentage chances of making a bowl at the moment?

I haven't run a Monte Carlo simulation or anything, but I'm guessing like 20%
11-24-2023, 09:01 PM
Quaoarsking

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smitdawg

Are we sure that Jacksonville State is eligible before 5-7 teams this year? They are in year 1 of their transition to FBS. James Madison is in year 2 of their transition, which is why they can get a bowl. Last year, in year 1, James Madison was denied a bowl, allowing Rice to get a bowl at 5-7. I guess it is possible that the NCAA changed that this season.

Everyone's reporting that they are.
11-24-2023, 09:02 PM
confucius say

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

So where would you guys put our percentage chances of making a bowl at the moment?

I'm thinking 50-50
11-24-2023, 09:03 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

So where would you guys put our percentage chances of making a bowl at the moment?

I'm going 50/50
11-24-2023, 09:12 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

So where would you guys put our percentage chances of making a bowl at the moment?

We're fans of miss state, you can bet the house 8 win tomorrow with 4 of them on game winning FGs or OT
11-24-2023, 09:18 PM
msudawg1200

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

So where would you guys put our percentage chances of making a bowl at the moment?

If you go strictly by Vegas odds on the favorites winning it's 40%, but you know it never plays out that way. I'm going 50-50.
11-24-2023, 09:21 PM
msudawg1200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smitdawg

Are we sure that Jacksonville State is eligible before 5-7 teams this year? They are in year 1 of their transition to FBS. James Madison is in year 2 of their transition, which is why they can get a bowl. Last year, in year 1, James Madison was denied a bowl, allowing Rice to get a bowl at 5-7. I guess it is possible that the NCAA changed that this season.

I thought the same thing, so a few weeks ago I started researching it, and apparently they just had a one year instead of two year transition which allows them a bowl this year if not enough 6 win teams are available.
11-24-2023, 10:01 PM
Smitdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by msudawg1200

I thought the same thing, so a few weeks ago I started researching it, and apparently they just had a one year instead of two year transition which allows them a bowl this year if not enough 6 win teams are available.

That makes sense. I didn't realize that they made Jacksonville State's transition only a single season instead of 2 like previous schools. Thanks.
11-24-2023, 10:44 PM
Tater

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smitdawg

That makes sense. I didn't realize that they made Jacksonville State's transition only a single season instead of 2 like previous schools. Thanks.

It's more that they spent year 1 in transition in FCS. JMU bucked the normal trend by going up a year early.
11-25-2023, 07:04 AM
Leeshouldveflanked

I doubt we would have enough players to field a team if we had a bowl offered.
11-25-2023, 07:56 AM
Pancho

Oh really? how many players do we got?
11-25-2023, 09:48 AM
Quaoarsking

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leeshouldveflanked

I doubt we would have enough players to field a team if we had a bowl offered.

In 2020 we played Georgia with like 45 guys.
11-25-2023, 12:22 PM
MetEdDawg

Houston up 7-0 early
SMU up 14-0 early
11-25-2023, 01:17 PM
MetEdDawg

Kent State at 1-10 up on Northern Illinois 14-10 and driving.

SMU blowing out Navy

FAU up early on Rice

Houston down to UCF 13-10 but us the ball and driving

So far things going the way we need them to
11-25-2023, 02:46 PM
Turfdawg67

How we looking MetEd??
11-25-2023, 02:49 PM
MetEdDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turfdawg67

How we looking MetEd??

UCF has opened the lead good on Houston. That one not looking good.

The others look good. Kent State leading Northern Illinois leading in the 4th.

FAU up on Rice (although Rice gets in over us anyways I think based on APR)

SMU up big.

Northern Illinois would be the big one. That's not one folks expected. I think Kent State was the biggest underdog against the remaining 5-7 teams.

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