5-7 and a bowl?

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11-14-2023, 06:53 PM
msudawg1200

Now, when looking at what we need on the G5 side of things, I'm counting JMU and Jax St as getting in because they are.
American- no more than 7. The AAC could have as many as 8(highly unlikely) and as few as four. The fringe teams are USF at 5-5 with at UTSA and home to Charlotte. Navy is 4-5. They have ECU, SMU, and Army. We need 1-2. Rice is 4-6, but has us in APR, so 5 for them beats us. They have at Charlotte and FAU at home. Let them win. FAU is hanging by a thread. They just need to lose to Tulane or Rice.
Sun Belt- 10 or less. They could have 11 or as few as 8. SAla and Marshall are 5-5 and play this week, so one is in. We need it to be SAl.Marshall then plays Ark State the next week. Ark State has Tex St this week. They need to lose, so that only one of them and Marshall get a bid. ULL is 5-5 but finished at home with ULM. They are probably in.
MAC- no more than 6. MACtion could have as many as 7 or few as 4. Four are in. CMU, EMU, and WMU/NIU all have a shot. WMU/NIU play tonight. Both are 4-6. Loser is out. Winner has to win next week. I'd rather WMU because they have BGSU next week. NIU has Kent. CMU is 5-5 and has to beat Ohio or Toledo. Not easy and we need them to lose both. EMU is 4-6 and has SloMo and mighty Akron tonight and at Buffalo next week. Lose one.
CUSA-4 is probably it no more or less and that's ok.
MWC They could have as many as 8 which is ok, but the fewer the better. Utah St, SJ State, and Boise are all 5-5. Boise has us in APR so it doesn't matter what they do. Utah St has Boise and New Mexico. They need to lose out but likely aren't. SJSU has SDSU and UNLV. They need to lose out, but like USU likely aren't and that's ok. Colorado St is 4-6 and has to beat Nevada at home(likely), and Hawaii on the road(iffier than you'd think) to get eligible. Lose one, but them winning doesn't kill us.

All this said here's what we need from each conference:
ACC-10 teams
Big 10-10 teams
SEC-9 teams
Big XII-9 teams
PAC 12-7 teams
Independents-1 team
AAC-7 teams
Sun Belt-10 teams
CUSA-4 teams
MAC-6 teams
MWC-8 teams
That's 81 teams, and we'd be 82. All that I typed above doesn't ALL have to happen just some of it. I just gave you a guide of who to pull for to be safe. Of course, we have to at least beat USM or it doesn't matter.
11-14-2023, 07:53 PM
confucius say

Cliff notes: what percent chance we get a bowl with a 5-7 record? Like 50 or like 80?
11-14-2023, 08:04 PM
msudawg1200

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

Cliff notes: what percent chance we get a bowl with a 5-7 record? Like 50 or like 80?

Depends. Somewhere in between 30-70. I know that's a big gap. We'll know a lot more this weekend.
11-15-2023, 01:59 AM
SailingDawg

6-6

Will and Woody return to beat a Kiffenless O M.
11-15-2023, 07:59 AM
somebodyshotmypaw

Accept. Winners show up and play. Losers look for excuses not to play. We need to rebuild our culture. If there is a game at 2:00 AM played on a deserted island in the North Sea, and the field is littered in broken glass, winners show up and show out. Losers make excuses.
11-15-2023, 02:24 PM
msudawg1200

CBS(Jerry Palm) and the Athletic both have us projected to the Liberty at 5-7. EMU beat the Fightin' Moorhead's last night and NIU beat WMU. We'd rather the results have been reversed, but as of right now doesn't affect much. We do need CMU to lose to Ohio tonight. JMU and Jax State are supposed to hear from the NCAA about their waiver request this afternoon. If they rule against I'd say our bowl chances at 5-7 shoot up from 40% to 80%.
11-15-2023, 03:40 PM
Goldendawg

I have never liked the idea of a team with a losing or even 6-6 record making a bowl, but the vast number of bowls today changed all that with so many teams needed to fill them. That said, we really need to go this year even at 5-7 for more practice sessons for our young players. Long shot, but maybe our new coach could/would be available for this. A successful HC hire's coach might coach his current team's bowl or they might want him to go ahead and cut ties as they move forward.
11-16-2023, 06:04 AM
msudawg1200

Central Michigan lost which is good for us. Also, JMU and Jax State were denied their bowl waiver. However, if there are not enough 6 win teams they get picked first, so it doesn't help us.
11-18-2023, 09:18 PM
CaptainObvious

Was anybody ahead of or even with us eliminated from contention today?
11-18-2023, 09:56 PM
msudawg1200

Not really. We really need both Central and Eastern Michigan to lose next week, and both will most likely be underdogs(CMU vs Toledo and EMU at Buffalo). We need Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin(currently down 17-14) and next week at Iowa. We need Illinois to lose to NW. UCF needs to lose to Houston, while BYU needed to lose at Okie Lite. TCU needs to lose at OU. Florida needs to continue to lose to Missouri and against FSU next week. SC needs to lose to either UK(down 14-10) or Clemson next week. Wazzu needs to lose to Washington. Cal needs to lose at UCLA. USF needs to lose to Charlotte. Marshall needs to lose to Ark St. Colorado State needs to lose at Hawaii. Utah State needs to lose at New Mexico. SJSU needs to lose to SDSU and at UNLV. Now, we don't need all of that to happen. Most likely just half of it. If all of that happens we are in easily. So, there's your rooting guide in case we lose Thursday night.
11-18-2023, 09:59 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by msudawg1200

Not really. We really need both Central and Eastern Michigan to lose next week, and both will most likely be underdogs(CMU vs Toledo and EMU at Buffalo). We need Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin(currently down 17-14) and next week at Iowa. We need Illinois to lose to NW. UCF needs to lose to Houston, while BYU needed to lose at Okie Lite. TCU needs to lose at OU. Florida needs to continue to lose to Missouri and against FSU next week. SC needs to lose to either UK(down 14-10) or Clemson next week. Wazzu needs to lose to Washington. Cal needs to lose at UCLA. USF needs to lose to Charlotte. Marshall needs to lose to Ark St. Colorado State needs to lose at Hawaii. Utah State needs to lose at New Mexico. SJSU needs to lose to SDSU and at UNLV. Now, we don't need all of that to happen. Most likely just half of it. If all of that happens we are in easily. So, there's your rooting guide in case we lose Thursday night.

Dude do you have a massive headache right now? That stuff looks like some of the formulas they pulled off the crashed ufos at Roswell lol!
11-18-2023, 10:54 PM
msudawg1200

I enjoy this stuff. Keeps my mind going. Mizzou needs to hang on against Florida. It looked like I Syracuse was done against GT, but they've fought back. If they win that'd knock an ACC team out which would be huge. Wisconsin beating Nebraska was huge. Also, root for Virginia to be VA Tech. That'd knock another team out. As well as, ULM to beat ULL.
11-18-2023, 11:03 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by msudawg1200

I enjoy this stuff. Keeps my mind going. Mizzou needs to hang on against Florida. It looked like I Syracuse was done against GT, but they've fought back. If they win that'd knock an ACC team out which would be huge. Wisconsin beating Nebraska was huge. Also, root for Virginia to be VA Tech. That'd knock another team out. As well as, ULM to beat ULL.

Appreciate it man! I hope you keep this updated because my old brain would short circuit trying to figure all this out!

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