I expect the northern half of AL and southern to mid to TN to go moderate at the least.
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What's the timeline? My son plays downtown Nashville at Tootsies from 2-6pm. What we looking like??
I would say any time after 3:00pm I'd be keeping tabs on things. It may be later for the Nashville region but I'm not sure. As of last look storms look to start developing over MS around 1-2pm and then race off NE at 50-70mph. With discrete cells, if they form, you can't really give a timeline because they can form anywhere in the warm sector. There's no squall line you can track out. The first storm may form near Jackson and the second one at Pontotoc.
I think their main concern will be from the qlcs, or squall line, when it comes through. There will be embedded tornadic circulations within it but main threat will be straight line winds. The biggest tornadic concern will be from the discrete cells that fire ahead of the line. Right now that looks to be east MS into AL.
I just got hit with tornado watch. Davidson county Tennessee.
Just subscribed as well. Thanks as always for the heads up and y’all be safe out there.
For those in Central Alabama, we are getting the rare but always interesting forecast discrepancy between our local NWS and the Storm Prediction Center.
The SPC maintains an enhanced risk down through a good portion of central AL. The local Bham NWS trimmed the enhanced risk area back considerably for the central Alabama warning area and even mentioned in their forecast product they considered removing it entirely due to the limiting factors out ahead of the line that might limit the development of discrete cells.
I'll be interested to see if the SPC holds on or if they make some changes at the 7:30 AM update. But it's always interesting when local NWS offices buck the bigger SPC trends. I will say our Bham NWS office is as good as they come. I've had a chance to work with some of those folks when I shadowed there and they know what the heck they are doing.