How Many Games Can Leach Win Next Year with This Offense?

C34 when he sees a win/loss thread

https://media0.giphy.com/media/RIjMT...hGtm/giphy.gif

I think we can win 7 games. We will upset somebody. My guess is Auburn. They lost a lot of talent off the OL and DL. And we have them in DWS.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TrapGame

I think we can win 7 games. We will upset somebody. My guess is Auburn. They lost a lot of talent off the OL and DL. And we have them in DWS.

---

If we can pull one- they are certainly one of them

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RougeDawg

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

---

Talent maybe. Experience not so much. This is more like Mullen's 2016 team. It probably will be somewhat of a roller coaster next year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dawgday166

Talent maybe. Experience not so much. This is more like Mullen's 2016 team. It probably will be somewhat of a roller coaster next year.

---

Or his 2017 team where we were coming off of a six win season but added some key transfers and upgraded from Sirmon to Grantham. Changes can make a big difference sometimes. It's a lot more unpredictable when we don't know what we have because of so many changes plus we don't really know how the grad transfer thing is going to totally shake out at this point.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RougeDawg

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

---

Exactly. I'm basing my prediction next year on what a competent coach should accomplish. The reason we went 6-6 last year was because we were completely incompetent at the head coaching position. Leach is inheriting a team that should have won 8 games last year. He can just win the games against teams he out talents and go 8-4. He could beat Auburn and A&M and/or lose to Kentucky / Missouri / Ole Miss. This idea that we should be grateful for 6 wins is horse shit. He's inheriting an underachieving team. He needs to make them achieve to their talent level.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Todd4State

Or his 2017 team where we were coming off of a six win season but added some key transfers and upgraded from Sirmon to Grantham. Changes can make a big difference sometimes. It's a lot more unpredictable when we don't know what we have because of so many changes plus we don't really know how the grad transfer thing is going to totally shake out at this point.

---

Maybe so but a lot of things have to fall just right for that to happen. Just like they did with Mullen on all the in-state Jucos that had D1 experience and were studs.

ETA: I would guess the odds are pretty long for that same scenario again this year. And Mullen's QB was used to the system and had led the SEC in Total O the year before.

I’ve got us at 8 wins going into the UMiss game.

No idea who wins the Egg Bowl, but it’ll be interesting no matter what.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TXDawg

I’ve got us at 8 wins going into the UMiss game.

No idea who wins the Egg Bowl, but it’ll be interesting no matter what.

---

TAM or AU or you just saying we split those two?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RougeDawg

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

---

Good post, Rouge. Context is key.

4 pages and I've yet to read a post that said, "I'll take that bet."


booooooooooooooooooooo.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TUSK

4 pages and I've yet to read a post that said, "I'll take that bet."


booooooooooooooooooooo.

---

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi1LMIUOOAI

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dawgday166

Maybe so but a lot of things have to fall just right for that to happen. Just like they did with Mullen on all the in-state Jucos that had D1 experience and were studs.

ETA: I would guess the odds are pretty long for that same scenario again this year. And Mullen's QB was used to the system and had led the SEC in Total O the year before.

---

Exactly. It's a complete wild card. We could have 1999 or 2017 JUCO's. Or we could have Arizona Western JUCO's. Typically it takes six games or so for them to get acclimated. And of course the grad transfer market is something that didn't exist in 1999 and something that we didn't really take advantage of in 2017.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dawgday166

TAM or AU or you just saying we split those two?

---

I'm saying we split those two. Not sure which one we get, but I think we'll take one of them.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TXDawg

I'm saying we split those two. Not sure which one we get, but I think we'll take one of them.

---

I can see an upset like one of these but I also foresee a WTF game ... or 2.

The talent factor, good or bad, is easier for me to put my finger on. My questions are how quickly do the players buy in to this staff? Are there any culture issues in the locker room that can't be overcome? Do some veterans push back against a new way of doing things?

These coaches are going to tighten some stuff up. There is always some push back, and there could be some players leave.

Getting to 6 wins isn't that hard in this league. It's trying to get more than 7 or 8 where things get tough. Mullen knew that. Beating the non-conference teams, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky, etc. is so much easier than trying to consistently beat LSU or Bama.

With Moorhead, two freshmen starting at defensive tackle, and a true freshman QB, we weren't far from 8 wins (Tennessee and Kansas State).

I'm thinking we lose some to attrition. Newberry says he plays the guys that are laying it all out there ... and they may not be the most talented guys. I think Leach is the same way.

So some of us may see a player or 2 flash if they get in the game but behind the scenes ... they may be slacking and Leach/Newberry sitting them most of time cause of that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach34

We have hired a better coach. But we are in a rebuilding year in 2020. The "rebuilding year" bullshit JoVester tried to spew for 2019 was ridiculous. Our team in 2019 was better talent-wise and had more experience than ours will be in 2020. 2020 was going to be a rebuild with JoVester. Now, its a rebuild and transition year with Leach.

We need to hope we win 6 games and keep the bowl streak alive. That will be a good season. Anything better than that is gravy. 8-9 wins aint happening with a completely new offense and a D with no pass rush, weak at LB, and a new Secondary. Especially considering we will play 75 plays a game on D.

---

I'm thinking though that our roster was allowed to ride The Good Ship Lollipop during the off season and that's about to change dramatically. You do make some good points though regarding Leach's first seasons at T. Tech and WSU that were not total 180's from the previous.

I'm remembering how different our team played Mullen's first year. Maybe Leach is gonna use his more experienced mind this time and make a big difference season 1 with a new team. Maybe a stronger, more disciplined and more physical team will give us a better roster than what we think we have.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

QB - Costello

RB - Hill

WR - Mitchell

WR - Heath

WR - Payton

WR - Tabor/Tulu

WR - Williams

LT - Cross/Eiland

LG - Parker/Smith

C - Sharp/Smith

OL - Reese/Pendley

RT - Lashley/ Dolla Bill

If the WRs can just run Leach's offense & catch the ball, there's a ton of talent on this offense. That OL may be the most talented Leach has ever coached

I love that our first 5 games aren't our toughest. Gives this team a great chance to get in a groove before playing the big boys.

If the WRs improve, which we expect to some degree due to Leach, & the defense is average, this offense can win at least 8 games.

---

Who is the Starkville High WR that we signed last year that played in a few games? He has great size, and I think will do well in Leach's system...Cam something, I'm too lazy to look it up.