2019 Football Concerns

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07-12-2019, 01:45 PM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

FPI had us 8th in 2018.
S&P+ had us 8th in 2018.
FEI had us 8th in 2018.

You wanting to bet we finish higher (1-7) in any of those metrics?

No, I'm gonna enjoy the season and not be a damn Negative Nelly about everything.
07-12-2019, 01:49 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrapGame

No, I'm gonna enjoy the season and not be a damn Negative Nelly about everything.

I like to think of it as looking at us objectively. 7-5 is the most likely outcome
07-12-2019, 01:52 PM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

I like to think of it as looking at us objectively. 7-5 is the most likely outcome

But your tone on every thread makes it sound more like 5-7. I think we finish 8-4 w/ a solid shot at 9-3.
07-12-2019, 01:57 PM
Covercorner2

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

It was a sure loss last year. I offered anyone here pumping sunshine a ban bet. One bit, but I let em off the hook bc it was a sucker bet. LSU will be better than last year and we will be worse... home field flips though, so maybe if we catch the breaks

Whatever man. It was never more than a two possession game.
07-12-2019, 02:02 PM
MedDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

FPI had us 8th in 2018.
S&P+ had us 8th in 2018.
FEI had us 8th in 2018.

You wanting to bet we finish higher (1-7) in any of those metrics?

And Sagarin had us 8th at the end of the 2018 season.

If you want to use those as evidence we won’t be better in 2019 then you should use those as evidence of success in 2018.
07-12-2019, 02:04 PM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

It was a sure loss last year. I offered anyone here pumping sunshine a ban bet. One bit, but I let em off the hook bc it was a sucker bet. LSU will be better than last year and we will be worse... home field flips though, so maybe if we catch the breaks

LSU was a 6.5 point favorite at home. That was not a sure loss. Nick Fitzgerald throwing 4 interceptions made sure it was a loss though. I am not here to say we are going to win the game. I am simply here to tell you that calling LSU at home with Ed roaming the sidelines a sure loss makes you look football illiterate. If LSU wins, that is still a really bad take. The only sure loss on our schedule is Alabama. It was that way last year as well. Just because you lose a game does not mean it was a sure loss going into the game.
07-12-2019, 02:06 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by MedDawg

And Sagarin had us 8th. At the END of the 2018 season.

Just shows how much we underachieved, which is why I'm not buying into this 9-win hype
07-12-2019, 02:08 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

I like to think of it as looking at us objectively. 7-5 is the most likely outcome

7-5 is probably if Stevens is as much of a bust in this offense as Fitz was.

I think 6 wins is the absolute floor but 7 is my personal floor. I will be disappointed if we only win 6. I think our probable is 8 wins and anything above that is gravy. Now if Stevens is as good as the Senior Bowl guy says and our offense clicks then we have a shot at all of them but Bama. I think our D will be good enough to win most games and if the offense helps in the tough games (unlike last year) then we could be pretty damn good.
07-12-2019, 02:14 PM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

7-5 is probably if Stevens is as much of a bust in this offense as Fitz was.

I think 6 wins is the absolute floor but 7 is my personal floor. I will be disappointed if we only win 6. I think our probable is 8 wins and anything above that is gravy. Now if Stevens is as good as the Senior Bowl guy says and our offense clicks then we have a shot at all of them but Bama. I think our D will be good enough to win most games and if the offense helps in the tough games (unlike last year) then we could be pretty damn good.

Quit making sense!!!************
07-12-2019, 02:16 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrapGame

Quit making sense!!!************

Sorry, I guess I need to even it out. Moorhead ==== Croom. Our savior Mullen left and now we will never be competitive again.***********
07-12-2019, 02:19 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Sorry, I guess I need to even it out. Moorhead ==== Croom. Our savior Mullen left and now we will never be competitive again.***********

You think 7 is your floor. If we win 7, Moorhead is clearly a disappointment then, right? Hitting the floor last year and this year.
07-12-2019, 02:19 PM
Coach007

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

7-5 is probably if Stevens is as much of a bust in this offense as Fitz was.

I think 6 wins is the absolute floor but 7 is my personal floor. I will be disappointed if we only win 6. I think our probable is 8 wins and anything above that is gravy. Now if Stevens is as good as the Senior Bowl guy says and our offense clicks then we have a shot at all of them but Bama. I think our D will be good enough to win most games and if the offense helps in the tough games (unlike last year) then we could be pretty damn good.

If he is as good as the 18 year veteran NFL scout says, then Bama is competitive at home!
07-12-2019, 02:25 PM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach007

If he is as good as the 18 year veteran NFL scout says, then Bama is competitive at home!

That's a good point.
07-12-2019, 02:29 PM
PMDawg

I think this is pretty cut and dry. If Tommy is less than 60% completion rate, we win 6 or 7 games. If he is 60%-67%, we win 8 or 9. If he's >67%, then it could get interesting.

This is assuming he doesn't run the ball 12+ times a game.
07-12-2019, 02:32 PM
Pipedream

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

Yes- last year's sack numbers were helped tremendously by Simmons.

I didnt say anywhere the CB's were better last year than this year. Dantzler is certainly better than both. But I am saying they will have to cover longer this year- and that will absolutely lead to being worse on pass defense than we were in 2018. Our depth in the Secondary is worse than last year- that plays a part when you have to sub for injury or rest. Teams are going to have more time to throw- period. And that will help other offenses. We should have a good defense- but it will be 4th best in the West for its ceiling- and about 6th overall in the SEC.

I don't think anything you're saying is that outrageous. If we fall back to 6th in the league in D, you're still talking about a top 20 Defense nationally which is incredibly respectable considering how much we lost. DT is a huge question, but what if the guys we play there are SEC average? Then the rest of your defense is top half, maybe better at DE, LB, and CB? Just have to wait and see there bc of the unknowns. I think the biggest question is the same one we had at the end of last season:Is Moorhead any good? Coaching is the biggest concern I have. If he coaches like last year, could be a 6 win team which would be a major disappointment.
07-12-2019, 02:35 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

You think 7 is your floor. If we win 7, Moorhead is clearly a disappointment then, right? Hitting the floor last year and this year.

It depends on how we get to 7. If we are barely scraping by against the crap teams and getting dominated by everyone else then I will probably be dissapointed. If we hang close with pretty much everyone and only lose to top 15 teams then that is a different story.

I will be disappointed with 6 wins almost anyway it shakes out. The floor to me is like a C, it is a passing grade but shows we need improvement. I would give last year a C+. Our losses were pretty much to the top 15 teams except Iowa who ended up ranked 25 (but we also should have beaten if Guidry does anything besides knock a TD pass into a safety's chest).
07-12-2019, 02:38 PM
Pipedream

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

You think 7 is your floor. If we win 7, Moorhead is clearly a disappointment then, right? Hitting the floor last year and this year.

I do think 7 is the floor and the numbers back that up. ULL, USM, KSt., UK, Ark, Abilene, and OM all have 25% or less chance of beating us according to preseason numbers. 5 of those games are at home. 1 is a neutral site in NOLA vs ULL where we will likely have more fans than they do. The other is a road game against Arkansas who has a LONG way to go to becoming competitive in the SEC (we could've beaten them by 100 last year). The whole season rides on at Aub/at UT/LSU/ at A&M. You win 1 of those it's probably a successful year. You somehow split those 4 and you start to feel pretty good about JM again. 8 or 9 reg season wins with a chance to get 9 or 10 with a bowl game would be a great improvement from the lackluster 2018 season IMO.
07-12-2019, 03:33 PM
Coach34

There is no doubt that this could be an 8 win team in 2019. No doubt. Doesn't mean the team doesn't have concerns and question marks entering the season. 6 wins wouldn't surprise- 8 would be a good year. Anything past that and its been a really good season
07-12-2019, 03:47 PM
99jc

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Here's my opinion on this season:

Until we know if Tommy is Tommy Boy or Tommy Gunn, we don't know shit about this team.

LOL......REP given
07-12-2019, 03:48 PM
99jc

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Just shows how much we underachieved, which is why I'm not buying into this 9-win hype

i'm with ya 7

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