Simmons and the Draft?

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Originally Posted by BoomBoom

That's how it should be, not how it is. Unfortunately, that incident will count against him should anything similar.ever come.up. it's like starting a game with a unsportsman like conduct, one more.and you're gone. And GMs are wary of using a 1st round pick that's one bad moment away from being gone. There's also the potential heavy PR hit that may come when fans hear this for the first time, without knowing the circumstances, on draft night. For.some teams the upside will be worth it, for.others it won't. The latter may be enough to drop him to the 2nd round.

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Belichek doesn't care what fans think. If Simmons is there then the Patriots will draft him because he is a top 5 talent.

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Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Belichek doesn't care what fans think. If Simmons is there then the Patriots will draft him because he is a top 5 talent.

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Patriots are exactly the type of team that will luck into Simmons

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Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Oddly enough, Jones was a 2nd round pick but it puts him 1 year closer to his FA deal because only 1st rounders get 5th year options.

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Yep. The 5th year options are still big paydays too, but don't offer the long term certainty of a FA deal. How certain that FA deal is depends on negotiations of course, but cox got $63M guaranteed with his deal.

I am almost assured that if Simmons goes pro and teams pass due to the issue in HS, then teams like the Seahawks, Patriots, or Dallas are more than willing to take the PR hit for a Top 5 talent. Which he is

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Originally Posted by dawgs

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#c06905445814

Here is the nfl rookie slots for 2018 picks. Simmons might be able to sneak into the back half of the top 10 this year and probably won't improve his stock next year even with another great season (as deep as DL is this year, there are very few skill position guys on offense projected as 1st round picks too, so the draft is gonna be defensive heavy anyway, and Simmons is projected towards the top of the DL heap). So even if he's project at say the middle to back of the 1st round, he'd have to climb into the top 10 to really change the $$$ he's gonna get in any significant way. Then you figure if he has a good head and good advisors, he'll be investing a sizable chunk of that signing bonus, so he'll be gaining interest for a year. Then figure he'll hit free agency 1 year earlier and if he pans out like cox and jones have, he'll be looking at a ~$15+M/year deal at that point (maybe $20M+ with salary cap increases), so you take around $3-5M less spread out over the life of the rookie contract, but between interest gained on investing and an extra year of free agency, he would more than make up for coming out early even if he only projects as a mid-late 1st round pick. And then combine that with no guarantee to improve his stock and a reasonable projection that he could hurt it by becoming stale to NFL scouts even if he doesn't drop off in production significantly or maybe production dips without sweat splitting the OL's attention or a strong offensive skill position draft in 2020 after teams loaded up on early DL picks in 2019 pushes him down the board, and there's really not a financial reason to come back.

Now he could just want to comeback regardless of financial reasons, and that's his decision to make, but (assuming he maintains his 1st round grade and stays healthy) anyone that thinks he'd be financially better off coming back in hopes of improving his rookie contract is wrong.

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Getting out of the rookie contract faster is a strong incentive, but most agents will tell you that you can't count on that. Your goal is 100% consumed with your first contract. It's the only thing that's close to "guaranteed." Anything after that is gravy. On the flip side, insurance policy would help mitigate the loss of income if he were to have a setback, so there's financial risks in staying there too.

However, if he's projected 20th or later due to the depth of DT spot this year, he could come back and make a lot more money out the gate next year, including big endorsement deals.

Go Jeffrey!! Don't look back! You've given us 3 amazing seasons. Go be great & take care of your family.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

Go Jeffrey!! Don't look back! You've given us 3 amazing seasons. Go be great & take care of your family.

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He will. It'd be foolish to not

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Originally Posted by dawgs

If all the draftniks who are constantly in touch with scouts and front offices aren't already dropping Simmons out of the 1st round on their projections because of the HS incident, I can't imagine that it's gonna suddenly make a huge difference. Someone might get him slightly lower than he should go, but he ain't dropping a round or 2 because of it. These folks are already aware of it and still have him in the first round. Once he goes through the interview process and works out, assuming he does well, his stock isn't gonna go drop. Obviously if he blows his combine or comes across like a shit in his interviews, he'll drop, but it'll be because he didn't handle himself well in the process, but assuming he does well, he's not dropping imo.

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Look, if Tunsil can do a gas mask bong on world wide TV on draft night and not drop any further than what he did, Jeffery ain't got nothing to worry about.