Yes sir!
Bama will not be as pumped up for us as they were for LSU.
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I honestly think its a coin flip. Could go either way. I don't necessarily think we are going to win, but I don't think we are going to lose either. Like most tight SEC games, it will come down to one or two plays. If those plays are something like having to stop them on 4th and goal on the 1 yard line, I don't really feel good about it. But if its needing Dak to convert a 3rd and 6 to put us in position for a game winning field goal, I do feel pretty good about it. Overall we match up about as well with them as any team in their schedule does (our strengths line up with their weaknesses), we have the best QB, and we are at home. No reason for all the doom and gloom.
As much as I want us to win, if I was forced to bet my salary on the game, I'd take Bama.. For the last few years, it's pretty obvious by the end of the 1st quarter which MSU showed up to play, and you pretty much know if we'll win or lose (or win a close/ugly game vs a vastly inferior opponent).
However, unlike last year when we peaked as a team vs Auburn, I don't think we've hit our peak yet. I hope that happens this weekend.
I think it will come down to what we can do with Drake. I think we can stop Henry fairly well, but Drake on the little quick juts outside and a couple missed tackles could cost us the game. Similar to the 3rd and longs last year with Sims. If we can keep those opportunities down and get at least a score ahead, you can wrap it in Maroon and White
Their QB is terrible . Make this game Dak v Coker and we win . Load 82 people in the box and stop the train. The pass , pass, pass!!
Just two words.
I believe.....
I keep wanting to say no because I have been conditioned to do so. But the bigger picture including place, time, and schedule as well as intangibles, I'm seeing a win.
Keys to victory:
1) pressure on Coker
2) GO DOG GO. Whatever Bama gives Dak he must take it. If they give him 12 yards of green lush fields he needs to take it not throw an incomplete pass.
3) Cannot let them win field position game. ST very key
Their punter is a major asset for them. He kept us with bad field position last year which was instrumental in their win.
I told everyone after the KY game that we are beating Bama this year. I truly believe it. Now I will say it depends on if we win the turnover battle. I don't care if it is 1-0 or 3-2. But no one can really stop us on offense, and we are at home. I want the ball first to start the game so we can score first.
We will win 31-21.
Our offense has to sustain drives and keep their D spread out and all over the field. Keep our defense off of the field and rested. No turnovers on our behalf. LIMIT Henry and Drake (really no stopping them completely)...Protect Dak and limit pressure (couple of sacks will happen). Accomplish those things my friends, and we will be partying in the junction come 6pm.
Dawgs win 34-28
Tennessee - Dobbs vs Bama
Comp Att Yds Pct Y/A Sack YdsL TD Int QBRat
13 22 171 59.1 7.8 5 38 1 0 139.4
"Giving Bama fits" is a relative term. Yes, it was the best performance by a QB vs the Bama D by anyone this season, but these numbers aren't that special. Bama played flat and Tennessee played good D vs them, getting 5 sacks and an INT on Coker, and yet Bama still won.
Big difference for UT that day was RB Jalen Hurd. Perhaps Aeris could provide that for us Saturday, but if Dan insists on giving Shump many carries, we are probably in deep, deep, doo-doo. If Shump's running costs us one drive, that could be enough in this game.
This is where I get nervous about Dan's play-calling/player selection. We can't afford to waste any drives vs Bama.
Can we respond with a TD after Henry's 63 yard TD on their first drive.
I agree with this.
This is the key to the game IMO. If Dan wastes one single drive by trying to run Shump between the tackles, or plunging Dak up the gut on 3rd & 6...it could be enough to lose. Possessions are precious in games like this, and we can't afford to take a series off mentally. That leads to better field position for Bama and a tired MSU defense. Field position is going to be huge. We can't go 3 & out on our own 20, & we can't bend all game defensively to where our offense starts with our heels against our endzone every series.
Ultimately, it comes down to Dan and whether he tenses up in the moment. If he lets it rip AND Dak will take a few chances down field, we can win. But if we play the game as if we think we can run on them and/or waste possessions, we lose. I'd rather us lose 40-10 while letting it rip and doing everything we can to win, than to lose 27-24 while wasting possessions & playing conservative with regrets after the game.
We've got to keep them from getting 2nd & 5 and 3rd and short. There's actually a little hope here. Bama is last in the sec in TFL allowed and we're 4th in TFLs.
I think we're judging bama on their last game maybe a little too much. They haven't been that dominant most of the year.
Think the game comes down to how MSU plays in the redzone on offense. Sure, we could run the ball better last year, but this year we throw it better & Dak is a better player. As evidenced by last year's game, Dan's initial game plan sucked, but he absolutely found a way to move the ball as the game went on. MSU just failed to capitalize in the redzone. If MSU scores TDs in the redzone this weekend, MSU will win the game.
This graphic may make you want to throw up, but it should also bring some confidence. For Most of Mullen's tenure at MSU, we identify with MSU's offense against Bama being stalemated for no gain. However, that's not what happened last year. Mullen found something.
http://i.imgur.com/i2Xt6XS.jpg