Arizona St Game

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Originally Posted by Hot Rock

and you don't know football at all if you truly believe that.

Arizona State was a playoff team last year that pushed Texas to the edge in the playoff game. They could have easily beaten them and been the team that faced Ohio State in the championship game.

They lost one player of note and he wass a big piece in RB Scattebo but everyone is back on a top rated defense, he QB is picked to be a Heisman candidate and they have several good RB's.

Anyone saying this is a must win for us is either lying on purpose or knows nothing of them or us.

Yes, Our talent level has improved but they have equal or better talent and have been together for years and proven they play well together. If anything, it's a must win for them.

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No it's a must win for us. You can not like and not think it's fair all day long, and by the way I agree with you. It's not fair to hold us to that standard that we HAVE to beat Arizona St. But the fact of the matter is we do. Look, unless your head has been buried in the sand for the last 19 months, our program has ZERO juice. None. Zilch. Nada. Beating Arizona St gives you that juice. It means you're going to get 4-0 and you'll be 4-0 when Tennessee comes to town. If that's the case, DWS will be a zoo. It will be wild in there. You beat them and get to 5-0 and you just have to find ONE MORE WIN and you're in a bowl. And we desperately need a bowl game.

Now take the inverse of that, say we lose, that means AT BEST you're 3-1 going into Tennessee and out of all likelihood 3-2 coming out of it with A&M, Florida, and Texas. You'll be 3-5 coming out of that stretch and the season will be slipping through your grasp. At that point 3-9 looks a hell of a lot more likely than any other scenario. So at that point you'll have went 2-10 and 3-9 under Lebby with NO CONFERENCE WINS since October 21, 2023. Your program juice is gone and it will take you years to get it back. Because look, no one is going to take this job if you fire Lebby after 2 seasons after firing Arnett after 10 games. So if you don't fire Lebby, you'll have 40K in the stands and if you do it could be worse. Because you're not getting a sitting HC unless you take a chance on an up and coming G5 guy, who would have to completely rebuild the roster......yet again.

So should Arizona St be categorized as a must win or the most important game of the Jeff Lebby era? No. But it is. You need people to believe again.

A) Lebby took over a rebuild that had gone Air Bone and a staff that didnt recruit very well at all

B) Lebby is getting 3 years at State unless he is caught with a goat or goes 0-12

C) We will be a home underdog vs Arizona St as they will be a Top 20 team coming in. Home underdogs win every weekend. Do I expect us to win? No. Do I hope we win? Yes. Close loss at home and we are ok- they are a good team. Home loss that is definitive? Thats bad and nothing can be salvaged from it.

D) Us winning 6 games this year has as much chance happening as Lemon running a marathon. We have to hope we win 1 SEC game. We are staring 0-8 in the SEC dead in the face again.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

A) Lebby took over a rebuild that had gone Air Bone and a staff that didnt recruit very well at all

B) Lebby is getting 3 years at State unless he is caught with a goat or goes 0-12

C) We will be a home underdog vs Arizona St as they will be a Top 20 team coming in. Home underdogs win every weekend. Do I expect us to win? No. Do I hope we win? Yes. Close loss at home and we are ok- they are a good team. Home loss that is definitive? Thats bad and nothing can be salvaged from it.

D) Us winning 6 games this year has as much chance happening as Lemon running a marathon. We have to hope we win 1 SEC game. We are staring 0-8 in the SEC dead in the face again.

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All this is true but.... if State can beat ASU, I think they may get that SEC win and may even go bowling.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

No it's a must win for us. You can not like and not think it's fair all day long, and by the way I agree with you. It's not fair to hold us to that standard that we HAVE to beat Arizona St. But the fact of the matter is we do. Look, unless your head has been buried in the sand for the last 19 months, our program has ZERO juice. None. Zilch. Nada. Beating Arizona St gives you that juice. It means you're going to get 4-0 and you'll be 4-0 when Tennessee comes to town. If that's the case, DWS will be a zoo. It will be wild in there. You beat them and get to 5-0 and you just have to find ONE MORE WIN and you're in a bowl. And we desperately need a bowl game.

Now take the inverse of that, say we lose, that means AT BEST you're 3-1 going into Tennessee and out of all likelihood 3-2 coming out of it with A&M, Florida, and Texas. You'll be 3-5 coming out of that stretch and the season will be slipping through your grasp. At that point 3-9 looks a hell of a lot more likely than any other scenario. So at that point you'll have went 2-10 and 3-9 under Lebby with NO CONFERENCE WINS since October 21, 2023. Your program juice is gone and it will take you years to get it back. Because look, no one is going to take this job if you fire Lebby after 2 seasons after firing Arnett after 10 games. So if you don't fire Lebby, you'll have 40K in the stands and if you do it could be worse. Because you're not getting a sitting HC unless you take a chance on an up and coming G5 guy, who would have to completely rebuild the roster......yet again.

So should Arizona St be categorized as a must win or the most important game of the Jeff Lebby era? No. But it is. You need people to believe again.

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I went through the 5 years of Croom with offense that could not complete a pass vs air and decades with only 1-5 seasons being winning seasons. No, it's not a must win. Mississippi State is bigger than wins and losses this one year. Lebby may get canned if another 2 win season happens but I don't expect that. But ASU a must win? Heck no, but fans may disappear. Stands will be empty and it could get ugly before it gets better but calling ASU a must win for this Staff is not accurate. That's a dang good team over there.

You are right that it would excite the fanbase if they did win it but does not make it a must win for Lebby or even Hutzler. Again, that is a dang good team in ASU and yes it will take years to come back. We on year two for Lebby, he gets three.. Hutzler gets this year.

In the end, Lebby may not work out but ASU is a top 20 program or even better with a Heisman candidate QB that had State down 30-3 in 3rd qt last year before they sent in the scrubs.

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Originally Posted by Hot Rock

and you don't know football at all if you truly believe that.

Arizona State was a playoff team last year that pushed Texas to the edge in the playoff game. They could have easily beaten them and been the team that faced Ohio State in the championship game.

They lost one player of note and he wass a big piece in RB Scattebo but everyone is back on a top rated defense, he QB is picked to be a Heisman candidate and they have several good RB's.

Anyone saying this is a must win for us is either lying on purpose or knows nothing of them or us.

Yes, Our talent level has improved but they have equal or better talent and have been together for years and proven they play well together. If anything, it's a must win for them.

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Agree. It would be a signature win for us. But it's not a must win for Lebby's career.

There is so much roster turnover from year to year that it's hard to know how good a team is this early, but you could convince me that we have a better chance of beating Ark, OM, and TN than ASU.

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Originally Posted by Hot Rock

All this is true but.... if State can beat ASU, I think they may get that SEC win and may even go bowling.

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agreed. That game will tell us alot

ASU is going to be our 3rd hardest game outside of Texas and UGA. They return alot from a playoff team. I don?t see us winning that. Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

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Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG

Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

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and again- we will be the underdog in all 3 games.

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Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG

ASU is going to be our 3rd hardest game outside of Texas and UGA. They return alot from a playoff team. I don?t see us winning that. Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

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If that is our best chance then we will be 3-9. Two of those are on the road and the other is OM, who we have beaten once since Kiffin got there.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

If that is our best chance then we will be 3-9. Two of those are on the road and the other is OM, who we have beaten once since Kiffin got there.

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Exactly. People are trying to hang out hope Mississippi will underwhelm but from what I've seen their QB this year might be better than the one that just left. He'll **** up some because he is still young but his ceiling is sky high. Plus- the runs he will have will be more explosive than their previous guy. I dont think they will be as good as last year overall- but their explosiveness makes them just as dangerous.

UPig and Mizzou have just as much talent as we do- and they are at home. We could pull an upset on the road- but its gonna be tough.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Exactly. People are trying to hang out hope Mississippi will underwhelm but from what I've seen their QB this year might be better than the one that just left. He'll **** up some because he is still young but his ceiling is sky high. Plus- the runs he will have will be more explosive than their previous guy. I dont think they will be as good as last year overall- but their explosiveness makes them just as dangerous.

UPig and Mizzou have just as much talent as we do- and they are at home. We could pull an upset on the road- but its gonna be tough.

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You think Simmons is a better runner than Dart?

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Originally Posted by confucius say

You think Simmons is a better runner than Dart?

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Yes- faster but not as physical

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Exactly. People are trying to hang out hope Mississippi will underwhelm but from what I've seen their QB this year might be better than the one that just left. He'll **** up some because he is still young but his ceiling is sky high. Plus- the runs he will have will be more explosive than their previous guy. I dont think they will be as good as last year overall- but their explosiveness makes them just as dangerous.

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Our best shot against them is that he's out with explosive runs.

I am of the opinion that we will not beat ASU...i hope i'm wrong.

That being said i keep seeing people throw out that "they were a playoff team last year"...and since i have lost a large portion of my college football enthusiasm due to the NIL and portal combination and don't keep up with it like i have in the past... my question is: if they had played a full SEC schedule would they have been a playoff team?

again...i get that their roster and probably talent level is greater than ours and us winning will be an upset, but them being a playoff team out of the pac10/big12 means very little to me.

If we can't beat ASU then we aren't winning a single SEC game. Mizzou supposedly upgraded their D with a couple of potential NFL caliber edge rushers plus Drink's offense is pretty good. Ark will be tough because Petrino can still coach an offense.

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Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG

ASU is going to be our 3rd hardest game outside of Texas and UGA. They return alot from a playoff team. I don?t see us winning that. Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

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Are they though?

Last year, 4 of their 7 conferences wins were against UCF, Kansas, Okie State, and Utah, all with losing records including OK St. going 0-9 Big 12.

Their 2.losses were to 8-5 Texas Tech and 5-7 Cincinnati, both on the road. They had several 1 score wins including 31-28 against Texas State where they had to kick a 4th Qtr. field goal to win.

Scattebo is gone. The road is difficult. Handle business at Hattiesburg and have a different game plan with better players against ASU. Things could go our way. The bottom of the SEC is better than the middle of the Big 12.

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Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein

Our best shot against them is that he's out with explosive runs.

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What position groups of theirs are much better than ours, or better at all?

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Originally Posted by CaptainObvious

Are they though?

Last year, 4 of their 7 conferences wins were against UCF, Kansas, Okie State, and Utah, all with losing records including OK St. going 0-9 Big 12.

Their 2.losses were to 8-5 Texas Tech and 5-7 Cincinnati, both on the road. They had several 1 score wins including 31-28 against Texas State where they had to kick a 4th Qtr. field goal to win.

Scattebo is gone. The road is difficult. Handle business at Hattiesburg and have a different game plan with better players against ASU. Things could go our way. The bottom of the SEC is better than the middle of the Big 12.

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Yes, they actually got a lot better as the year went on. They nearly beat Texas in the Peach Bowl after stubbing their toe a few times. In reality, they should have won that game and Texas was the 2nd best team in the SEC. They did lose Scattebo, but return 17 starters. I would anticipate they would be 5th in the SEC this year if they were in the SEC. We do not play Bama or LSU though so that is why I say they are the 3rd toughest game on the schedule. That being said, I by no means think we go 6-6. I was just saying that ASU is going to be better than Ark and Mizzou. Possibly a toss up with Ole Miss about whether they are better than them or not, but they are more experienced.

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Originally Posted by confucius say

What position groups of theirs are much better than ours, or better at all?

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Everything except RB and maybe TE? Their front 7 is the biggest gap followed by QB, secondary/WR then OL. Wish 247 would release their team talent composite earlier than they do.