https://twitter.com/ethanjweiss/stat...75950978039808Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
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https://twitter.com/ethanjweiss/stat...75950978039808Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
For some reason I can't embed this tweet and graph.
Yes! The UK recently went on full lockdown, so he's speaking in context of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
The article claims he changed his stance when in fact, he did not. His model has always had the "unmitigated" scenario and the "suppression" scenario. It just happens that the UK recently decided to go with the "suppression" strategy so now he believes they have a chance.
The article leads you to believe that he suddenly had some realization that things aren't as bad as they seem. Not true. The numbers in the model are basically the same as they were a couple weeks ago. (They are slightly lower, like the 2.2 mil -> 2.18 mil I posted above)
520,000 in North America? We're at 1142 in us, canada, and Mexico right now. You think it's gonna get 455x worse?Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
On March 6 we had 233 cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
20 days later we have 81,578 cases. The most in the world.
So things have gotten 350 times worse in twenty days.
Sure - its not 455 times worse. But still a lot worse. Where will we be in another 20 days. If thins are only 20 times worse in 20 days - we will 1.6 million cases by April 15th.
That less than a quarter of 1% of the population. What besides "your gut" leads you to believe that isn't possible?Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Spain is the worst death rate in the world. They are currently sitting at 136 deaths per million (.000136). To get to your total, we'd have be 18 times worse. Currently, we (just us) are 45.3x better than themQuote:
Originally Posted by deadheaddawg
Once again this is not gonna be as bad as some believe and will be worse than others believe. Pray that it's best case scenario.
The death rate that is relevant is death rate of people affected. Italy is now over 10% death rate for those tested positive. Most experts predicted that as their hospitals were overwhelmed. Spain's death rate is around 6%.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Our death rate is around 1.5% which is good, but we have not hit the cross over point where the lack of health care affects the death rate except in places like in New York where people are not getting the care you need to survive.
Look - hopefully we are all doing part and the numbers simply flatten out so that we can keep that death rate, but without a cure and how easy this spreads and the number of people still not staying home and doing their part - if the growth rate continues at 23-28% which where it has been for a while - then this keeps doubling every 3 days. Lets hope it really flattens out over the next week, but so far every model showing this virus spreading and doubling has been for the most part too damn accurate.
I mean we are at 81,000+ cases. We had 200+ twenty days ago. At some point people may have to utter those three little words on a sports message board that no one wants to type.
I was wrong.
Per this tweet - Italy's numbers are worseQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
https://twitter.com/williamreggler/s...58088859127808
I've been hopeful that the rural nature of our state would shield us from the worst of it, but the numbers are troubling. Add that to the fact that we have such an unhealthy population anyway and the majority are overweight. I worry about it. We're a poor state with few resources. We have a lot of rural hospitals that simply can't handle this.
This is where I disagree with you... I think we are much higher than the reported cases, which makes the death rate plummet. The vast majority of cases aren't being documented bc they aren't serious imoQuote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
That says Italy has 124 deaths per million which is lower than my number.Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
Wouldn't that also be applicable to other countries?Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
So lets assume the death rate is significantly less than the 1-2% most people are predicting - wouldn't that be based on positive Covid cases. So if 1 million people have the Covid confirmed and only 100K die providing a 1% death rate of confirmed covid cases which is less than most countries; Yet in reality 5 million have the Covid and still 100K die, where is the upside? I guess I'm missing that point.
You were using Spain's 10% and our 1.5% which are based on reported cases. Since we (imo) don't know the actual number of cases, I think death rate per million is the best comparison between countiesQuote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
US:Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
March 21: 46 deaths
March 22: 113 deaths
March 23: 141 deaths
March 24: 225 deaths
March 25: 247 deaths
This will continue going up. 300, 400, 500 a day. When will it end? Well, our new cases are continuing to grow as well.
March 21: 4825 new cases
March 22: 9400 new cases
March 23: 10189 new cases
March 24: 11075 new cases
March 25: 13355 new cases
It usually takes 2-4 weeks for someone to die from this virus. Our deaths per day will continue growing as long as our new cases do.
Remember, we're still about 12 days behind Italy and 8 days behind Spain.
It would seem to me that the stat that would be most relevant is confirmed Covid cases. As that grows - so does the death rate. We have to keep that number from doubling every 3 days, because that would seem to be the best predictor of people that will potentially die.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
If that number continues to grow - as it has over the last 20 days - then the numbers will most likely continue to be accurate. I sure hope they stop doubling at the rate they are, but I just don't see the level of suppression they keep talking about being adhered to, and for many areas - it is too late based on the incubation period.
What were the dates of the first confirmed cases in those counties? I see us on January 21, Italy on January 30, and Spain on Feb 1. Are those dates incorrect?Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
I'd bet you all your VCash that the US has 30,000 confirmed cases by the start of Summer. We didn't do enough to contain it initially and it will slowly spread out. Bad take.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doggie_Style
Empty out that Vcash
How many deaths you think the U.S. will have?Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Not sure about first reported cases, butQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Italy on 2/23 - had 155 cases
USA on 3/5 - had 159 cases
Roughly 10 days behind them originally.
Italy on 3/14 - had 21157 cases
USA on 3/14 - had 2836 cases
Today
Italy has 80539 cases
USA has 81285 cases
When did both countries start mass testing? I'm genuinely interested in this bc if we had a confirmed case in late January, then I'm pretty sure he gave it to someone here who gave it to someone who gave it to someone. What if he wasn't the first case here just the first documented?Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
We have not started mass testing. By any rational definition we have not started mass testing.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I'm not sure I get the point of your inquiry though. It got to the US because people traveled from countries that had it and it spreads so easily. The article from South Korea about the 1 guy responsible for over 1000 cases by simply going to church and then a buffet. Just nutty stuff.
The guy from the article earlier tweets about it. A few more tweets in the thread.
[tweet2]1243294815200124928[/tweet2]
Italy is not testing anyone under 30 unless they are in the hospital.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
It was a woman, and she was told not to do it. She was patient zero for the cult church that is at the heart of the initial outbreak in South Korea.Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
The reason I asked that was bc I was wondering if we timed our testing with when it started becoming widespread or did we find out it was widespread when we started testing?Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
Nobody has really mass tested except for the Chinese, IF you believe what they are saying. THEY only did it in Wuhan, by their own admission.Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
You are aware we have 5 1/5 times their population?Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
Yes - that would seem to be a bad thing, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
According to thisQuote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...id-19-testing/
On March 2nd:
Italy had tested 23,345 (386 per million)
US had tested 472 (1 per million)
On March 9th:
Italy had tested 60,761 (1105 per million)
US had tested 8,554 (26 per million)
The difference in testing makes me wonder if that's some of the case totals difference
This video states what I was thinking much better than I could express it in words here. Really interesting....Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk
Sirbarksalot posted it on SPS
As I have stated ad nauseum: these tests are NOT indicative of the rate of spread they are indicative of an exponential increase in testing. The folks who are testing positive right now are showing symptoms which means they contracted the virus 1-2 weeks ago. We will have more cases than any other country outside of China and India. Why? Because we have higher populations than any other country.
You know we just passed China right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
ETA:
People who are getting tested are sick. We're not testing everybody. It is quite indicative of the spread.
We didn't have hospitals on the brink of failure in February. This has not been going around undetected in large parts of the population for months. If it was, our hospitals would've been full before now.
So you think China's numbers are accurate?Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
I can't really say if their numbers are accurate. They def could've lied about how many people tested positive back then, but there is real world evidence that they're getting back to normal now.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Apple re-opened their stores in China and closed them in the rest of the world. Traffic data shows Shanghai getting back to normal. They're lifting the lockdown in Wuhan: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/...hnk/index.html
Interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
What you make of the 21 million missing cell phones in China?
Fake news or the government shutting off phones that tried to expose the situation via social media.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I buy both more than I buy that many Chinese died. I do think the numbers in China are more than reported though. Crazy leaders could've sent 10,000 infected around the world, and it wouldn't surprise meQuote:
Originally Posted by defiantdog
If that many died they could not cover it up. I think they absolutely lied about their numbers, but not to that extent.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I’ve appreciated the numbers you’ve been posting but this post lost me. Obviously the more we test the more we find. I also saw somewhere, don’t know where, today that something like 14% of the tested are positive. So we are testing more, we are finding more cases, it is spreading, but a lot of folks don’t have it.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
That said, dr birx today talked about how either the numbers are way off or there are a ton of folks that have it that are asymptomatic.