Braves

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Originally Posted by smootness

There is a shift that must happen in the way teams view players like Flaherty. Instead of looking at him and saying, 'Wow, he's batting .300+, we need to keep him in the lineup while he's hitting this well,' we need to look at him and say, 'Wow, we got 21 games of .300+ out of Ryan Flaherty, how fortunate we are!' and stop playing him before we get the cold spell that brings him back down to career norms. If you wait until he falls back to where he's been, then you got nothing beneficial out of him. You just got more games of a normal Ryan Flaherty instead of just the good stuff.

Hopefully we're shifting in the way we view that, but we'll just have to see.

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Damn what a bleak outlook on life errr I mean baseball players

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Damn what a bleak outlook on life errr I mean baseball players

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Haha what?

We know what Ryan Flaherty is. He has proven that over 6 major league seasons. He currently has a BABIP over .400. That means you have lucked out and gotten much better production out of Ryan Flaherty than you could have ever hoped or than he is likely to produce going forward.

So, if you continue playing Flaherty, he will almost certainly come back down to career norms. By doing so, you will negate any positives from having him play so far above his head to start. If you stop playing him (or at least stop starting him since we now have a better option), you will ensure you were the lucky beneficiary of his surprising play.

It's like gambling. If you go to Vegas and win huge your first time out, you should absolutely stop playing. Instead, people continue, thinking they can keep getting lucky, and they negate any gains they got.

What is bleak about that?

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Originally Posted by smootness

Haha what?

We know what Ryan Flaherty is. He has proven that over 6 major league seasons. He currently has a BABIP over .400. That means you have lucked out and gotten much better production out of Ryan Flaherty than you could have ever hoped or than he is likely to produce going forward.

So, if you continue playing Flaherty, he will almost certainly come back down to career norms. By doing so, you will negate any positives from having him play so far above his head to start. If you stop playing him (or at least stop starting him since we now have a better option), you will ensure you were the lucky beneficiary of his surprising play.

It's like gambling. If you go to Vegas and win huge your first time out, you should absolutely stop playing. Instead, people continue, thinking they can keep getting lucky, and they negate any gains they got.

What is bleak about that?

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Never assume performance will.drop below career norms to "stabilize" his numbers. Dice.have no memory. He is most likely to put up his career numbers from here out, averaging with his lucky start to give him a career year. If you have a better option than his career numbers, then you play him. If not, ride the hot streak.

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Originally Posted by BoomBoom

Never assume performance will.drop below career norms to "stabilize" his numbers. Dice.have no memory. He is most likely to put up his career numbers from here out, averaging with his lucky start to give him a career year. If you have a better option than his career numbers, then you play him. If not, ride the hot streak.

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This 100%. At some point there may be diminishing returns that force your hand. But you don't preemptively take him out because his career numbers will potentially point to regression back to norm. You ride it until it's gone. Once you realize that the return is not good enough, then you consider making a change. But I've never heard of sitting someone that was hot because the next day they may not be hot because their career numbers say at some point they will probably not be as good as they are showing.

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Originally Posted by BoomBoom

Never assume performance will.drop below career norms to "stabilize" his numbers. Dice.have no memory. He is most likely to put up his career numbers from here out, averaging with his lucky start to give him a career year. If you have a better option than his career numbers, then you play him. If not, ride the hot streak.

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How do you decide if his hot streak is over? 1 for last 15 with 6 k

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Originally Posted by msstate7

How do you decide if his hot streak is over? 1 for last 15 with 6 k

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If you ride the hot streak, it will take 5 or 6 games possibly of him sucking to know if his hot streak is over. By then, he's become a problem. That's why you don't just go by the "hot hand".

I would be done with Flahrty as soon as Jose Bautista is ready to be promoted. And since he's hitting over .300, maybe another team will trade him for cash or a reliever with an expiring contract. Right now he's going to be a victim of being on a talented team, or at least he should be. Watch the barving commence when they send Comargo back to AAA instead.

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Originally Posted by Matty Dispatch

I would be done with Flahrty as soon as Jose Bautista is ready to be promoted. And since he's hitting over .300, maybe another team will trade him for cash or a reliever with an expiring contract. Right now he's going to be a victim of being on a talented team, or at least he should be. Watch the barving commence when they send Comargo back to AAA instead.

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I will melt. Seriously, I will throw a temper tantrum on my iPhone haha

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Originally Posted by msstate7

I will melt. Seriously, I will throw a temper tantrum on my iPhone haha

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I may literally melt my iPhone. Lol. I swear BS makes Gary Henderson look like a HOF manager. (Talking about Camargo having to sit again.)

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Originally Posted by msstate7

How do you decide if his hot streak is over? 1 for last 15 with 6 k

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You don't. You assume you will get his career numbers going forward. I would play Carmago. I'm lower on him than others, but you need to give him ABs to see what you've got.

1-run game with top of Phillies' lineup up... let's get a new kid his first action. Snit continues to be the dumbest dude alive. No way I trust snit and chuckle with these young kids

Who'd he bring in?

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Originally Posted by Bulldog1

Who'd he bring in?

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Chase Whitley or Whitney or whoever this AAAA trash is. He tops out at like 86

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Chase Whitley or Whitney or whoever this AAAA trash is. He tops out at like 86

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Clown show.

Snitker makes me so mad!!! Why is Flaherty playing again?
On the bright side: Flowers is catching tonight and Acuna is up to the 5 spot in the lineup!

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Originally Posted by Bulldog1

Snitker makes me so mad!!! Why is Flaherty playing again?
On the bright side: Flowers is catching tonight and Acuna is up to the 5 spot in the lineup!

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Because he is hitting over 300 and Bautista is hitting BJ Upton numbers.

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Originally Posted by parabrave

Because he is hitting over 300 and Bautista is hitting BJ Upton numbers.

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Camargo should be starting. RF has 2 hits in his last 17 plate appearances.

What is the prognosis on Teheran? He left game early last outing.

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Originally Posted by MaroonFlounder

What is the prognosis on Teheran? He left game early last outing.

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Don't think it is expected to be a huge issue. May miss a start bc of back, but I doubt it

https://s14.postimg.cc/9wg6yonsx/29_...9_FBF51_E3.jpg

I like this lineup