Printable View
So, you think three years of Mike's offense at Mississippi State is enough evidence to show that throwing it 50+ times a game isn't conducive to winning at an elite level, but you ignore all the mid tier talent level teams that have tried to run pro style against the big boys for years upon years in college football and actually believe that gives Mississippi State a better chance of winning at an elite level?Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
You both need more work to do in your professional careers..Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
So tell me, what did WKU do when Tyson Helton was trying to run a pro style spread offense? What happened when he switched to the Air Raid?
Apparently you do as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankerDog
There won't ever be an apology thread because you keep saying everyone that doesn't want to throw it 99%+ of the time is a 'pound the GD ball meathead'. There's no nuance to any of your linear thinking. Analytics have their place, but they can't be the sole guide of a team. Defenses have adjusted and AR has adjusted to that (Lincoln Riley). You also keep throwing out the same inaccurate and asinine statement that Barbay runs a 'run first, pro style offense'. When the man himself has said numerous times that his objective is to find the best playmakers and get them the ball whether it's running 70 times or passing 70 times. You also refuse to acknowledge that both ZA and KB have said numerous times the AR concepts aren't going away.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
That's not even diving into the fact that you think Kelce and Goedert shouldn't be on a football field and it's a waste of a player. TEs can catch and block making it easier to hide intentions or switch from a run to a pass if the defense runs a drop 8 or lines up 8 on the LOS.
You are the textbook definition of a midwit. You have enough information and smarts to know that you do in fact know something but not enough to realize how much you don't actually know.
So, when has Barbay ever run an offense that is based around the passing game?Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
Interest is up and the stock market is downQuote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Honestly, they're kind of tough to find. They typically blow up teams running the ball so well that there's no point in passing. When the run doesn't work Barbay seems to switch to passing more. Wow the ability to adjust. Do you know the 1 year he ran CMU's offense he passed it 4 more times per game and ran it 4 less than the guy before and after him? He didn't even have time to setup the personnel to his liking. Those stats are also heavily skewed by FCS teams that he ran all over without resistance.
Also, you have to remember that App St had 2 great returning RBs a plethora of TE/H-backs and lost 2-3 really good WRs from the year before. Like Barbay has said, he alters his scheme to best fit the talent he has.
App St 2022:
Troy: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ian-state.html
TX ST: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...xas-state.html
CMU 2021:
Mizzou: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-missouri.html
LSU: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ana-state.html
FIU: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-michigan.html
Miami OH: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-miami-oh.html
N IL: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-michigan.html
You do only get mugged if you go downtown (cities) lolQuote:
Originally Posted by BankerDog
Since you love analytics so much, can you explain how a guy who hates throwing was rated top in passing efficiency analytics?
According to Matrix Analytical, Barbay ranks No. 1 among active FBS offensive coordinators in career average pass game efficiency. He was one of just two Group of Five play callers in 2022 to produce an Explosive Pass Rate Percentage above 19 percent with a top 35 scoring efficiency offense.
Among FBS offensive coordinators since 2009, Barbay ranks per Matrix Analytical:
Inside the Top 15 percent in Passing Touchdowns Per Attempt
Inside the Top 20 percent in Fewest Interceptions Per Attempt
Inside the Top 25 percent in both QB Rating and QB Efficiency
Inside the Top 30 percent in Yards Per Attempt
Over the last two seasons, Barbay's offenses combined to averaged 448.01 yards per game and rank in the top 20 nationally. His offenses have consistently scored over 30 points per game, achieving that feat 56 percent of the time with a 33.61 points per game average.
This past season, Barbay's prolific offense ranked inside the top 25 nationally in scoring offense (No. 23 – 34.9), passer rating (No. 19 – 155.80), yards per pass attempt (No. 18 – 8.4), yards per play (No. 22 – 6.56), rushing offense (No. 21 – 204.42) and yards per rush (No. 21 – 5.18).
I can confirm this true in downtown where I live-which is why I refuse to go out down there.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
My town of 6,000 is feeling too much like a city for me. Think the Mrs. will have me here for the long haul though.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankerDog
Against Sun Belt and MAC competition, where his teams could out talent the rest of the conference. What did this scheme do when Jim McElwain ran it at Florida?Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
With the Sun Belt and MAC talent level offensive players he had...Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
We'll never know about FL since he didn't coach there. He was director of player development. (I'm sure you knew that, but you were trying to spread disinfo to people that don't.)
I'm just reinforcing the fact that Barbay runs McElwain's system, which is the system that was run at Florida.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
So, you're reinforcing your projections onto a scenario where they don't fit?Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
That and the beating the dead horse are the issue that 99% of the board has with you. Todd would like to see a system closer to what you want, but if you'll notice he hasn't been berated or degraded like you have because he doesn't 1 make false statements like the one you just made and 2 doesn't keep saying the same false statement over and over.
Personally, I would prefer a pass first offense, but this guy hits all of the almighty analytical metrics and is willing to change his scheme to fit his players. Most coaches don't meet those 2 criteria. We aren't getting CML back. Give the guy a chance.
Well, I'm certainly not going to act like a guy who has coached with Jim for the majority of his coaching career is going to just say "Nah, not running that scheme." Particularly when it looks exactly like every offense McElwain has run from a formation standpoint, emphasis standpoint, and a play calling standpoint.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
But we want to avoid saying it's McElwain's system, because McElwain's system is not good. So, we have to act like this is different so we can feel good about ourselves.
whew, I'll stick with KB21 is a true cuck.
Well you can act however you want, but reality won't go along with your false world view. He is going to run a different offense. If you cared about educating yourself you could go listen to the podcast (T&L I think) where he lists the inspirations for his offense. JM was a small part of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
You're saying he's exactly the same as another coach when there is no proof at all. By this logic Kyle Shanahan's offense is just Kubiaks. In reality, Shanahan learned some things from Kubiak and incorporated it into his offense and now probably has the best offensive scheme in football. Or Joey Freshwater is just running Norm Chow's offense. There's no end to this nonsense, non logical line of thinking.
The players and Rosebowl are always hyped up before the next season starts. Regardless of the coach.
Up front I'll say I don't care what offense we run as long as we get 1st downs and score points. And I also love CZA and think he'll be good as HC. Having said that, CZA doesn't have to rebuild a culture, deal with Covid, he's having a spring practice in his 1st year as head coach, he won't have to play a 10 game all-SEC schedule his 1st year while playing a bunch of true FR, and he won't be missing large percentages of players during games next year or the following year. Leach wasn't cut any slack at all by many on here for all of the adversity he faced in rebuilding the program.
So last year with a bunch of true juniors and some seniors, all with a lot of experience, C34 stated anything less than 10-2 was a unacceptable, even though we played Georgia and Bama at Bama. A lot on here felt the same way. That's understandable with our long and storied tradition of 10 win seasons.
Leach went 8-4 just like Mullen did in 2017 with a similar team. Many on here were pretty unhappy with that and remained convinced Leach's offense would never work in the SEC. Even after Pain has pointed out that Leach's 2021 offense exceeded all of Mullen's offenses except 2014. The 2022 offense was minus a stud 1st round OT and a couple of key WRs from the year before.
This year there is no Georgia, we play Bama at home, and if I'm not mistaken we return all our key players with exception of Sharp and Forbes. So ... Holding CZA and Barbay to same standards as many held Leach to, we should be 11-1 and go to playoff. Probably should win SECW, but could possibly lose to an undefeated or 1 loss Bama maybe. But we do have Bama at home and at very least it should be a very close game if we lose. Anything less than 10-2 is a big flop. I personally ain't interested in excuses about no tight end till summer, installation of an offense, or anything along those lines. Barbay is inheriting about as experienced a team as can be inherited, and has stated he can adapt to any set of personnel. He's inheriting a 4th year starter at QB. From an experience standpoint, this team has more experience than the 2018 team. I'm looking forward to our 1st CFP appearance. I'm pumped.
What did Leach’s scheme do when he played SEC talent? Let me give you a hint. It wasn’t worth a shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Because he still ran it too much***should pass 99% of the time***Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
Barbay runs Barbay's system....it is not the one run at Florida.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
He seems pretty confident what he's talking about. Remains to be seen whether or not he is correct. I understand basically what he means. We don't recruit the top players most of the time to go head to head with the big time programs, and the Air Raid somewhat levels the playing field. I don't think we would have beaten Auburn 2 years ago without the Air Raid. Rogers passes were dead on and we came back to win after being down 28-3.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pancho
Dunning-Kruger effectQuote:
Originally Posted by NCDawg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...AAAAAdAAAAABAY
Well said. I agree on everything except the 10-2 and 11-1 stuff. 8/9-4/3 should've been the expectation. We dropped the ball against ky.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
Anyway, CML did an awesome job. I'll miss him. I was a huge fan, bought his book and everything.
He said to trust ZA. I love his attitude and energy. He stumped the 'wizard' of offense in LK, won the bowl, kept our team together and held the class leach put together while adding even better pieces. The guy deserves nothing but respect at the moment.
No he does not. He ran App St system at App St and Mc's system at CMU. His complete offense pulls from a lot of different places. He is a multiple spread guy with pro, AR, RPO, etc. concepts running through his offense.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Why am I even responding to you, you just lie about what he does to keep up this asinine schtick.
SFAQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
That's like saying kingsbury and Riley run the CML system. No they don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Analytically speaking here- his passing is good. BUT the issue is he only has historically passed 38-45% of the time. He would likely be even better if he passed more. Now no- not saying he should pass 70% of the time. 55-60% though could make a huge difference though. The reason I think his passing metrics are because when he does pass it's typically play action which is analytically considered the most effective play in football. And in the early stages what is kind of disappointing to me is he always makes it a point that his offense is about establishing the run when in reality analytics says he would be a lot better- and likely elite- if he passed to set up the run than the other way around.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
And by the way the analytics guy whose numbers you are using basically said "small sample size" when asked about Barbay in an interview recently on the Bo Bounds show.
This is why there is a lot unknown and IMO risk with Barbay. He hasn't really run "his" offense ever. Sure- I'm sure he added some of his touches and whatnot. But at Central Michigan he ran McElwain's offense and at App State they have "their" offense which is very specific to them and highly influenced by their head coach- Shawn Clark. No one really knows what he will do at this point other than from practice reports- 3 and 4 WR sets and some 2 TE sets. So far. IMO IF he meshed Leach's Air Raid concepts with the play action and some more downfield stuff and some exotic plays- halfback pass, reverses, jet sweeps, etc. that he has done our offense could be maximized with the talent we presently have on the roster.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
Great post. I think I predicted 9-3 during the regular season and I missed on Kentucky.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
No one at MSU has ever had a scheme that consistently lit up bluebloods. We did well against A&M, Auburn, and Arkansas. And if we don't have a plethora of turnovers against Ole Miss we blow them out. The fact that we won with all the turnovers says a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
As it is as a MSU fan our realistic expectations should be to have an offense where we compete with bluebloods in a low scoring game and score 30+ on all others. That's because of our talent level.
I'm going to be 100% honest here.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
What WKU does is actually the offense that most MSU fans really want. They may not realize it yet- but it is.
I wish we would have hired Ben Arbuckle. If we're being honest with ourselves he wouldn't be any more- and to me would be much less risky than Barbay. But the fact that Arbuckle is 27 has people spooked.
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pl...raid-pro-style
The good pro-style spread teams are concept based, like the Air Raid, and try to do a few things really well. The bad ones try to mix in spread formations and concepts with pro-style language and approaches, call themselves "multiple," and are inefficient at most everything.
It's very difficult for college teams to actually be really, really good at multiple comprehensive concepts. The amount of practice time and the versatility or roster depth necessary to be balanced between the run and pass is usually beyond most programs. You see this most prominently at tight end.
The best tight ends you've heard of are usually just okay run-blockers and great receivers. Then there are tight ends who are great blockers but aren't typically awesome receivers. The challenge of the pro-style spread is usually how to run the ball effectively from formations with a TE if the TE isn't actually a good run-blocker.
I was a fan too and also bought his book. Unfortunate that we lost him the way we did. Guy never got to retire down to Key West and enjoy that year round.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
I have a lot of respect for CZA. Just going along with the same type expectations many on here had for Leach. I actually will be pleasantly surprised with 10 wins next year. 9 should be very doable tho. And if we don't get to 10 or our offense is stumbling/bumbling I won't be on here repeatedly calling for CZA or Barbay to be fired.
Then it's a good thing he doesn't mix pro-style language and approach to his offense.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
You completely skipped this part of the article though:
"The modern versions of the Air Raid have tended to mute the wide splits and overly pass-heavy emphasis of the original Air Raid. Run/pass options (RPOs) and dual-threat QBs have been a major boon to the system and allowed teams to get enough out of their running game to be balanced and stop defenses from embracing the same kind of extreme, pass-focus to stop them."
So you the article you site to try prove a point contradicts your stance in that it emphasizes that being more balanced in running the ball and utilizing a running QB has been a boon for the Air Raid.
Except you can't prove a negative. His stance is that nothing, except the purest form of the AR, will work at MSU going forward. There was 1 coach in the world who ran that pure form. He is no longer available as a coach. He averaged 6.3 wins per season as our coach. So, theoretically, any time any coach drops below 6.3 wins per season, KB will try to say "I told you so". But, it's irrelevant, bc no coach alive would ever run what KB wants, so there is no data to compare against, and there never will be. We will never know if the offense would be better or worse by running the pure AR, but KB has set it up so that he can always claim that it would be better than whatever we happen to be doing at the moment. It's an option that didn't exist, and that can never exist again, yet it's the "option" he wants to compare everything against. It's actually an insane, by the classical definition, stance to have taken. So, good luck to anyone who tries to prove anything on one side or the other.Quote:
Originally Posted by NCDawg
Again, you are wrong. Western Kentucky ran the Air Raid under Zach Kittley and Ben Arbuckle, who we could have and should have hired. They had the 2nd best passing offense in 2022 at 352.1 yards per game. They had the 2nd most pass attempts at 623. They clearly run a pass first and pass often air raid. Under Kittley, they had the #1 passing offense at 433 yards per game and threw it 697 times.
Georgia Southern runs the Air Raid. They had the 4th best passing offense at 329.9 yards per game. They had the third most passing attempts at 612. Bryan Ellis, their OC, could have been hired.
I just hope Arnett can admit that he made a mistake and dump Barbay after the season to bring back Hollingshead after Drew lights the scoreboard up at WKU this year.
My hope is we go 12-0 and someone hires him away as an OC or head coach.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
:)
I really want Arnett to succeed because if he does, it's a credit to Mike Leach and his ability to teach his coaches. However, dumping the Air Raid was a bad misstep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State