Printable View
Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
I got fancy over a year or so ago. A lot of tools to use and I'm still slowly learning but haven't gotten there yet. I had PYKL3Radar prior too but they went out of business. RadarScope Pro Tier 1 is so much better,
I use two different radar applications/programsQuote:
Originally Posted by parabrave
Mobile (iPhone): Radarscope with Tier 1 subscription
Desktop (Windows): GRLevel3
Both of these are paid applications. Radarscope basic is $9.99 one-time, Tier 1 is $9.99/year. GRLevel3 is $79.95 one time.
Both of these only pull data from one radar site at a time. So if you're in a triple-point of radar coverage (looking at you Washington, Bolivar, and Chicot Counties) you're kinda SOL on getting a good radar. However, the amount of valuable data you can pull, along with the QUALITY of data is unmatched. If you still are not satisfied about the data you're pulling for those apps/programs, I would use allisonhouse for your data pulls. They're reliable and you can actually customize a few features for both of them.
Then again, this is all very much based upon someone who uses these programs frequently and heavily.
For more teaching/training on your dual-pol radar data, there are many different online courses/videos to help decipher what you are looking at.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/spcousom/#dpra (Direct link to all video trainings/presentations from the Storm Prediction Center)
If you take out the #dpra you will see the full index of videos offered, and yes...you name it, they have a video training for it. The SPC does all training for severe weather analysis within the NOAA spectrum.
My laptop runs GR2 Analyst but that's a little much for the casual person.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Thanks again Ref.
Thanks Ref
So, where are we at now? Time? Most threatened locations?
As of now most of MS is still under a moderate risk. There is going to be a morning round that may be marginally severe. When it clears out will determine the punch the second wave has when it fires up noon-2:00pm. When this one develops if it can stay discrete supercells then it will be a high end tornado event. If storm mode is messier then the tornado threat will still be more than present, but not to the degree it could be. The SPC updates at 1:00am and maybe learn some more then.Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncle Ruckus
Is the basic RadarScope better than the free ones you get, like MyRadar and from television stations (many stations have their own radars also). They all show composites of the NEXRADS, where RS just shows one radar at a time. Does RS have better resolution or what is the advantage?Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
RadarScope will show the warnings as well as velocity and the dual pol products. The one knock on RS is it does not do composite radar, but it's not that often that really comes into play.Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
What areas is the heavy stuff heading?
Still too early to know. My personal guess is areas north of I-20...maybe Highway 84.Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncle Ruckus
The next update from SPC is at 1 AM CT (06 ZULU). What I expect to see at this point is probably maintaining a Moderate (4/5) Risk category that may be slightly refined in area. The Day 1 outlook will provide us a good outlook on what we can expect. It seems that the models are in agreement about the fact that this will more than likely be a more linear system in the North end and a discrete cell system on the South end. However, the 00Z model runs should give a better idea (along with the high-res models that are extremely short range time-wise).
Maintaining moderate . same for ms. extended farther ne in alabama into corner of ga.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVYcd4RU...g&name=900x900
...ArkLaTex into the Southeast...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Initially, convection is expected to be ongoing across east TX this
morning, in association with a lead shortwave perturbation. Storm
mode may be messy with this area of convection as it spreads
east/northeast across northern LA/southern AR into northern MS and
the TN Valley vicinity. However, strong warm advection will bring
upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints as far north as I-20 by late
morning/middday, as a 50+ kt southwesterly low level jet overspreads
the lower MS Valley. As a result, any convection that is initially
elevated above a modest EML should quickly become surface based.
Additional convection is then expected to develop by early afternoon
as a weak cap erodes across central and southern MS along a
pre-frontal trough/confluence band. These storms will likely be more
classic semi-discrete supercells, and spread eastward into AL by
late afternoon, and northern GA during the evening. Large, curved
hodographs and deep, rich boundary layer moisture in intense
vertical shear will support long-lived supercells capable of
producing significant tornadoes. Overnight, there is some potential
for upscale growth into a LEWP/QLCS across eastern AL/GA into the FL
Panhandle. Damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes are possible with
this convective mode as well.
With SPC officially having this event as a Day 1 outlook, we will now get updates on this system from them every 6 hours or so. This also means that we are officially in the window for more...let's say technical....jargon being thrown around in discussions. We will try and decipher most of it into layman's terms. If you have any questions or concerns, I'll be in and out for the next 6 hours or so.
My biggest concerns may be realized if the SPC discussion is correct. The Lower MS valley is expected to get semi-discrete supercells that can pack a massive punch power-wise. These storms are expected to be through MS by mid to late afternoon. This means right when it's nice and warm, along with very humid, these cells will be feeding off of every bit of that energy. With that in mind, don't be surprised to see some of these cells pop off earlier (around midday). If the mid and low level instability continues to support development, all areas in the Moderate risk are well within the danger zone. Keep an eye out for updates and make sure your plans are in place. We will get through this together.
Thanks for this Ref.
I live in Tuscaloosa, what are your thoughts as this moves into my area?
T-Town is definitely in the zone for this. I would say we are at Spann-CON suspenders visible level for today. Sleeves aren't quite rolled up yet, but they may be unbuttoned. But really, keep an eye on what happens in East MS near Meridian. If anything does head that way, it'll follow the same track as 2011. Now, for clarification, I'm not saying this will be another April 2011 event. I don't think anything for a while will compare to that. But make your preparations, get your plan together, and keep an eye and ear on the radio/tv/etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by runwildjerious
Oh...wanted to make sure to add this. Tornadoes are NOT the only threat from this system. There will be considerable flash flooding and there will be high winds. How high? Can't really say but it'll be enough to destroy stuff. If you have anything planned outside for Easter, I'd reconsider if you're within the risk area. As always, pay attention to watches and warnings. Your local meteorologists and National Weather Service offices will have the best information.
Will be interesting to see his thoughts in the morning on his daily video.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
runwild.. stay safe.
Good point Ref.. was going to post those images alsoQuote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou..._1200_torn.gif
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou..._1200_wind.gif
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou..._1200_hail.gif
So NWS Jackson just put out their forecast discussion for the area. Some interesting things were mentioned. So this will be a two-pronged attack by the system. The first will be in the morning and will consist of mostly some light to moderate showers. A few wind threats here and there from that system. However, the longer that sticks around, the less impactful the "main event" will be. Jackson has drawn a provisional line from Natchez, through Jackson, and onto Columbus. Their thinking is the highest threat is mainly North of this line. Now that's not to say that the Southern portion can't see some action, but it's not going to be the main threat here.
For you nerds who enjoy the numbers, EHI are predicted to be around 400 with a strong low-level shear we have a good chance of tornadic activity if everything lines up. The true cold front is expected to arrive around midnight and that's when the engine will be officially turned off for the area. This is going to be a long, drawn-out event. If you see a good amount of clear skies and sunlight, don't smile. That's not the best situation to be in. The more sunny skies you get, the more fuel is being added.
No sun here - yet. And looking at the cloud cover it doesn't look like it'll break up any time soon. There's a spot between B'ham and Huntsville that looks thinner, but otherwise clouds look solid over the entire southeastern quadrantQuote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Alternator in my truck looks to be shot. Got to scramble to see if I can get it replaced or my chase day is over before it starts.
How’s the Jackson metro looking today? The radar looks like the main stuff might go above us
It's going to be stormy but the worst of this will go north of Jackson, I think. I would put Tupelo and Starkville in the cross hairs, and over in Northern Alabama, the worst case scenario is lining up.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeastMan
Thanks Bubb - I have son driving from Jackson to Starkville later today. What appears to be the timing on this event?
Well the system is starting to get its act together. Tornado warnings and TStorm warnings in the arklatex moving down 20.
If you have a chance go to Reed Timmer twit, He is streaming in Shreveport driving down 20.
SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion indicating 95% chance or watch issuance across MS.
Can one of the meteorologist on here confirm that the SPC seems to think that south MS will have the greatest threat from discrete cells where they think it will be mainly QLCS in North Central? I tried to decipher the discussion, but I?m not a weather guy by trade...
STAY SAFE. PDS watch issued
The
@NWSSPC
has issued a Particuarly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch till 8PM. 90% chance of a tornado, while 80% chance of a significant tornado in the watch area.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0106.html
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
Northern and central Mississippi
* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1040 AM until
800 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Intense bowing line with a history of several tornadoes in
northwest Louisiana will progress rapidly east-northeast this
afternoon. Additional semi-discrete suprecells may develop ahead of
the line as well across parts of northern and central Mississippi.
Environment is supportive of several tornadoes, some of which will
likely be strong in addition to potential widespread damaging winds.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Monroe LA
to 20 miles south of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Harrydawg
I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.
Rain and thunder in golden triangle now. Is this the rain that could help prevent the worst case scenario? Or has that ship sailed?
Possibly. as noted, depending on how long the skies clear allowing the atmosphere to build up.Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless joe
Yeah, possibly, but we're not necessarily going to need clearing to rebuild the atmosphere. That warm sector pushing north is not going to need much help.Quote:
Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg
Watch the temps and dewpoint.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb
Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.
20 homes reporting damage so far in Monroe, LAQuote:
Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb