How Many Games Can Leach Win Next Year with This Offense?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach34

Texas Tech went 6-5 the year before Leach. No bowl game because of lack of bowl games then. Leach went 7-6 the next season thanks to a 12th game being added.

Washington State was 4-8 the year before Leach. Leach went 3-9 the next season- 1 game worse than the previous coach as he began to flip the roster

To think he will suddenly improve State by 2-3 games in Year 1 with our roster is lunacy.

---

the difference is neither Tech nor WSU had the advantage of having 6 and maybe 7 games where they had a talent advantage. We have major talent issues for an SEC team and we probably aren't going to be competitive against good SEC teams. But we are not G5 team bad. We have 3 games we should win OOC. NCSt gets to return a lot of players but they were pretty bad last year. Arkansas is a mess and basically hired their version of Matt Luke. Not saying he won't be successful, but it's asking a lot to expect him to turn that team around in one year. Ole Miss has a new coach but they have significant talent issues. We squeaked out a win against them this year when we had Moorhead and they had one pretty good and one really good coordinator. UK was better than us by the end of this year, but we still out talented them (hence us being able to win, even at home, because we sure as hell didn't outcoach them).

We probably aren't winning 8 because there are a lot of unknowns, but we should win six and getting to 8 wouldn't take some incredible string of luck. It would require our players responding to coaching and having the ball bounce our way in our two toughest toss up games. Or alternatively snagging a good transfer WR or finding out that coaching was holding our WRs back and they aren't as bad as they've looked.

The lack of talent in our WR corp is our biggest issue to me. If we had an average group of SEC receivers, I think we'd likely be an 8 win team even with the transition issues and talent issues on D. We just don't have to be that good of a team next year to win 8 games. We'd have to be much, much better to win 9 games (or have a horse shoe stuck up our ass), but we play 8 not very good teams next year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viverlibre

Sept. 5: at home vs. New Mexico Win
Sept. 12: on the road against North Carolina State Winnable
Sept. 19: at home versus Arkansas Win
Sept. 26: at home versus Tulane Win
Oct. 3: at home versus Texas A&M
Oct. 10: OPEN WEEK
Oct. 17: on the road against Alabama
Oct. 24 on the road against LSU
Oct. 31: at home versus Auburn
Nov. 7: at home versus Missouri Win
Nov. 14: on the road against Kentucky Winnable
Nov. 21: at home versus Alabama A&M Win
Nov. 26: on the road against Ole Miss Winnable

There are 5 for sure wins and 3 more winnable. Win 7 of those and upset one of these TAMU, AU, UAT, LSU (I think LSU is going to be pedestrian). 8 wins is our expectation.

---

8 wins is what happens if everything goes right. That is not the expectation unless you just want to set yourself up for disappointment.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jarius

Exactly. I'm basing my prediction next year on what a competent coach should accomplish. The reason we went 6-6 last year was because we were completely incompetent at the head coaching position. Leach is inheriting a team that should have won 8 games last year. He can just win the games against teams he out talents and go 8-4. He could beat Auburn and A&M and/or lose to Kentucky / Missouri / Ole Miss. This idea that we should be grateful for 6 wins is horse shit. He's inheriting an underachieving team. He needs to make them achieve to their talent level.

---

Leach is inheriting the returning players from a team that should have gone 8-4 last year. We didn't have much in the way of playmakers on D this year and we are losing two of them (our best two?). We also are extremely weak at WR, which seems kind of important when you are intending to implement an air raid offense. I think we have 8 winnable games on our schedule this upcoming year, but as long as we get 6 and play hard, I don't think Leach will be underachieving considering our talent and implementing a new offense when we are missing some key ingredients for the offense.

Just saw that Auburn has the week off to get ready for us. That does us no favors

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coursesuper

This is it, huge questions everywhere and things need to shake out. Winning 6 is good and winning anymore is all just lagniappe.

---

I agree, get to 6 wins and see improvement throughout the year...7 if we really improve...That's the main issue with me is I want to see us get better, good coaches make players better.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Johnson85

Leach is inheriting the returning players from a team that should have gone 8-4 last year. We didn't have much in the way of playmakers on D this year and we are losing two of them (our best two?). We also are extremely weak at WR, which seems kind of important when you are intending to implement an air raid offense. I think we have 8 winnable games on our schedule this upcoming year, but as long as we get 6 and play hard, I don't think Leach will be underachieving considering our talent and implementing a new offense when we are missing some key ingredients for the offense.

---

This. Well said.

NC State went 4-8 last year. We have UPIG at home. That should be 5 W's right there assuming we can hold serve at home vs an improved Tulane team.

A&M at home, At Bama, At LSU, MO at home, AU at home, at KY & at Upiss. That group gives us a minimum of 2 more wins. LSU will still be LSU but they are gonna drop off significantly.

My biggest concern is that Leach seems to always have a WTF game or 2 every year. Maybe he'll have access to some good blockers and RB's that he can run some clock once he gets a 2 TD or more lead that limits our opponents to ability to get back in the game. I'm thinking that's the reason he's blown some leads in the past creating those WTF games.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jarius

Yep. Outside of 2018 when it was a monsoon and they had the only legit defense they have had in the past 40 years.

---

Also one of the worse officiated games e v e r.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jarius

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place? How does that matter at all? We have beaten them 9 of the past 11 years. We beat them by like 3 touchdowns with a freshman quarterback this year. They have been pretty damn good once in your lifetime and that was 2 years ago. They aren't going to be pretty damn good. They are going to be the same 7-5 in the bad sec east that that they have been since Mullen started whipping their ass a decade ago.put them in the sec West the last 4 years with MSU as a crossover opponent and stoops is not their coach any more.

---

This is why our fans get so disappointed year after year in just about every sport. Unrealistic expectations. You don't raise the bar by having unrealistic expectations you raise it by putting in the work and building a program which is what Howland is having to do right now.

It will take time for Leach to get things rolling. I just hope we don't have fans freaking out at the first sign of deficiencies. Gotta give him time to build his team which is in my opinion a minimum of 3 years before we will know exactly how successful he will be here.

Shotgun does this every year. By the time season starts we will have some predicting 9 wins and when we don't reach that benchmark they will be claiming that Leach isn't going to work and they knew it from the time he was hired. In all reality the next two years are going to be transition years it is what it is. I would love to eat some crow on that but I don't see more than 7 wins this year and 8 next year with the floor being 5 and 6 win seasons.

Yep.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OLJWales

NC State went 4-8 last year. We have UPIG at home. That should be 5 W's right there assuming we can hold serve at home vs an improved Tulane team.

A&M at home, At Bama, At LSU, MO at home, AU at home, at KY & at Upiss. That group gives us a minimum of 2 more wins. LSU will still be LSU but they are gonna drop off significantly.

My biggest concern is that Leach seems to always have a WTF game or 2 every year. Maybe he'll have access to some good blockers and RB's that he can run some clock once he gets a 2 TD or more lead that limits our opponents to ability to get back in the game. I'm thinking that's the reason he's blown some leads in the past creating those WTF games.

---

There is absolutely zero chance we beat LSU next year. They will take a step back but not that far. They stil return some unbelievable talent at the WR position.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BB30

This is why our fans get so disappointed year after year in just about every sport. Unrealistic expectations. You don't raise the bar by having unrealistic expectations you raise it by putting in the work and building a program which is what Howland is having to do right now.

It will take time for Leach to get things rolling. I just hope we don't have fans freaking out at the first sign of deficiencies. Gotta give him time to build his team which is in my opinion a minimum of 3 years before we will know exactly how successful he will be here.

Shotgun does this every year. By the time season starts we will have some predicting 9 wins and when we don't reach that benchmark they will be claiming that Leach isn't going to work and they knew it from the time he was hired. In all reality the next two years are going to be transition years it is what it is. I would love to eat some crow on that but I don't see more than 7 wins this year and 8 next year with the floor being 5 and 6 win seasons.

---

I am not setting unrealistic expectations. I'm calling Kentucky a tossup game. They were not good this year and have not been good outside of 1 year in a very long time. Reading is fundamental. If beating a team that we have beaten 9 of the past 11 years who we outrecruit every year would surprise anyone on here then they simply have not been paying attention.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RougeDawg

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

---

Absolutely Rouge.
1) there is no way to predict wins and losses for next year until we see who suits up when fall practice starts. Like in travel baseball, you pick up three good sticks and two more good pitchers, you go from AA to AAA/major. With football you won't see that big of jump because of the depth needed and injuries etc.

2) when Jackie Sherrill became our coach, he took a crap team from the year before and his firSt year you could "just tell" we were way better.
Same thing with Mullen. His first year we could just tell that we were a much better team. Pitch it to boobie and we go bowling.

IMO we really don't know how good or bad our talent is. Leach is gonna pull the best out of them though. I firmly believe that. But some key pieces may not be man enough for what will be required of them now. That could have a negative offset of any player that we might pull from the transfer portal.

Just way too many variables like others have said.
But I know this, I was against this hire at first. The more I have learned about coach Leach, I believe he is absolutely what we need to right the ship at this point in our history !!
Hail State.

Some things not working in our favor:

We come out of our off week to face away games at Bama and at LSU- then turn around to play Auburn and Mizzou at home. Both Auburn and Mizzou have offweeks before us so thy will have 2 weeks to get ready for Leach. Not ideal for us in a toss-up game. We also play Kentucky in mid-November this year....so we can expect some cold and nasty weather most likely. Not ideal for the team planning to throw 45-50 passes

NC State doesnt have an opening game before us- so they will have tape of us and we will come in blind. Of course- we will have worked some kinks out while they wont. Makes that game more interesting there as well

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jarius

I am not setting unrealistic expectations. I'm calling Kentucky a tossup game. They were not good this year and have not been good outside of 1 year in a very long time. Reading is fundamental. If beating a team that we have beaten 9 of the past 11 years who we outrecruit every year would surprise anyone on here then they simply have not been paying attention.

---

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OLJWales

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

---

Going to be interesting to see whether UK has turned a corner with Stoops and will basically be the equivalent of Mullen's MSU teams (minus 2014) or whether they are going to revert to form going forward.

ETA: Kentucky's records under Stoops:

2013 Kentucky 2–10 0–8 7th (Eastern)
2014 Kentucky 5–7 2–6 6th (Eastern)
2015 Kentucky 5–7 2–6 T–4th (Eastern)
2016 Kentucky 7–6 4–4 T–2nd (Eastern) L TaxSlayer
2017 Kentucky 7–6 4–4 T–3rd (Eastern) L Music City
2018 Kentucky 10–3 5–3 T–2nd (Eastern) W Citrus 11 12
2019 Kentucky 8–5 3–5 T–4th (Eastern) W Belk


This is his first year that was down from the year before really.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OLJWales

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

---

I fully expect it to be a good game. We could win it or lose it. They are 3-5 against the sec West the past 4 years and have only played 1 team that finished in the top 4 of the sec West during that time frame. They are a very mediocre program that is extremely fortunate to play in the East.

They recruited better this year, but the only reason they are ahead of us at the moment is because they have 1 more commit than we do currently. That could change depending on how many more guys Leach takes in this class. Every other year prior to this one they recruit in the mid 30s. That's good enough to go about 5-7 in the West every year unless you have an outstanding coach like a Dan Mullen. Stoops is no Mullen.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OLJWales

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

---

I fully expect it to be a good game. We could win it or lose it. They are 3-5 against the sec West the past 4 years and have only played 1 team that finished in the top 4 of the sec West during that time frame. They are a very mediocre program. If Dan Mullen got to play Stoops' schedule during his time at MSU our field would already be renamed after him.

Tulane, New Mexico, AA&M, Ark

Bare minimum win those.

NCState, UK, Mizzou, Old Myth

A coach worth having can take this talent (especially given the roster in the OP) and win minimum 2 games of those 4. So with that measure, 6 wins should be our expectation. Any less is disappointment.

LSU, Auburn

Depends on who they bring back and who they get to replace in key positions. However both will be worse next year than this past year. A great coach could pull an upset.

A&M

It's Jimbo year 3 and they are primed for a big run. But it's also A&M and they somehow perennially underachieve. This is also winnable.

Alabama

Talent disparity is big here. Until we beat Saban it's hard to say this is winnable yet. Maybe there is cracks in the armour finally; however, I doubt it.


With all that, Ceiling is 11. Basement is 4. Disappointment is below 6. Realistic goal is 8. Anyone operating with higher expectations and being disappointed with a 6 or 7 win season is setting themselves up for failure. Anyone expecting more than 8 is also setting themselves up for failure.

With that being said I'm probably going to pick 10-2 or 11-1 by the time we preseason predictions come around because wool will be thick.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dantheman4248

With that being said I'm probably going to pick 10-2 or 11-1 by the time we preseason predictions come around because wool will be thick.

---

http://38.media.tumblr.com/bd522b1c6...h1dho1_400.gif

Love your optimism, though :)

With Leach I see 6 with a fighting chance at 8. If we'd kept Shitshow Joe, I'd see 4 with a fighting chance at 6.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BeardoMSU

http://38.media.tumblr.com/bd522b1c6...h1dho1_400.gif

Love your optimism, though :)

---

College football's best commodity is hope. Hope to get back to being. #1. That was such a high and we've proven we are capable. Just gotta work hard to do it right this time.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dantheman4248

With all that, Ceiling is 11. Basement is 4. Disappointment is below 6. Realistic goal is 8. Anyone operating with higher expectations and being disappointed with a 6 or 7 win season is setting themselves up for failure. Anyone expecting more than 8 is also setting themselves up for failure.

With that being said I'm probably going to pick 10-2 or 11-1 by the time we preseason predictions come around because wool will be thick.

---

LOL ... you back in your groove now. Surprised it's gonna take you till beginning of season to actually make the 11-1 prediction **

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dantheman4248

College football's best commodity is hope. Hope to get back to being. #1. That was such a high and we've proven we are capable. Just gotta work hard to do it right this time.

---

https://media2.giphy.com/media/a9WYvQYmuQAow/giphy.gif

Btw, I do hope you end up being right. That would be awesome.

Let?s re visit this after spring game however. We add Castello and out floor is 7 and out ceiling is 9
Some of y?all are under selling the defense and WR.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dawgfan77

Let?s re visit this after spring game however. We add Castello and out floor is 7 and out ceiling is 9
Some of y?all are under selling the defense and WR.

---

Don't expect State to look like gangbusters in the spring game if we go good on good.

2 weeks of practice ain't a whole lot.

If we do look good offensively good on good. Then I'll change my satisfaction with 6 wins next year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spiderman

Don't expect State to look like gangbusters in the spring game if we go good on good.

2 weeks of practice ain't a whole lot.

If we do look good offensively good on good. Then I'll change my satisfaction with 6 wins next year.

---

Spring is only the beginning. The Fall is when things start shaping out where more questions get answered.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BeardoMSU

http://38.media.tumblr.com/bd522b1c6...h1dho1_400.gif

Love your optimism, though :)

---

Bump the gif for awesomeness

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach34

7 is our ceiling

We wont be very good on D in 2020.

---

Leach wins. He consistently has more wins than the he should per talent gap.

WSU 4 year average Recruiting Ranking is 61.

Based on that as a measure of roster talent, WSU should have been 4-8. They were 6-6. Leach was good for +2 wins. Leach with "his QB" is +4 to +6


MSU's 4 year ranking is 21.
MSU, on the same metric, should out talent 6 teams, lose to 4, and 2 are the same "talent" as us (Ole Miss and Arkansas).

Our floor is 7. Ceiling is 10.

Unless you think Leach is 18 years of smoke and mirrors and is not really a good coach....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SheltonChoked

Leach wins. He consistently has more wins than the he should per talent gap.

WSU 4 year average Recruiting Ranking is 61.

Based on that as a measure of roster talent, WSU should have been 4-8. They were 6-6. Leach was good for +2 wins. Leach with "his QB" is +4 to +6


MSU's 4 year ranking is 21.
MSU, on the same metric, should out talent 6 teams, lose to 4, and 2 are the same "talent" as us (Ole Miss and Arkansas).

Our floor is 7. Ceiling is 10.

Unless you think Leach is 18 years of smoke and mirrors and is not really a good coach....

---

Just not sure Leach is going to make that big of a difference in year one. If he sprinkles his magic fairy dust on a DC, and we find out our WRs were really held back by coaching, we will be really good on offense. I don't know that that's a reasonable expectation. I think Leach performs with mediocre talent in part because he is good at recognizing potential and then helping players realize that potential, not because he can turn any piece of shit into a good QB or WR. I think we will have enough options between players on the roster and potential transfers that he will figure out something at QB. Just not sure that he is going to be able to make the current crop of WRs good. I certainly think he could take players that looked like our WRs in highschool and turn t hem into a solid WR corps, I just don't think he can necessarily do that without picking those WRs

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Johnson85

Just not sure Leach is going to make that big of a difference in year one. If he sprinkles his magic fairy dust on a DC, and we find out our WRs were really held back by coaching, we will be really good on offense. I don't know that that's a reasonable expectation. I think Leach performs with mediocre talent in part because he is good at recognizing potential and then helping players realize that potential, not because he can turn any piece of shit into a good QB or WR. I think we will have enough options between players on the roster and potential transfers that he will figure out something at QB. Just not sure that he is going to be able to make the current crop of WRs good. I certainly think he could take players that looked like our WRs in highschool and turn t hem into a solid WR corps, I just don't think he can necessarily do that without picking those WRs

---

Yeah too bad Leach never had to transition from a run first team to his air raid ever in his career. He won't have any idea what to do****

Quote:

---

To prepare his receivers' ankles and knees for the unusual punishment of his nonstop-running offense, Leach has installed a 40-yard-long sand pit on his practice field; slogging through the sand, he says, strengthens the receivers' joints. And when they finish sprinting, they move to Leach's tennis-ball bazookas. A year of catching tiny fuzzy balls fired at their chests at 60 m.p.h. has turned many young men who got to Texas Tech with hands of stone into glue-fingered receivers.

---

Or our WR's were having to overthink a complicated system, and get used to playing with 2-3 different QB's, plus split reps in practice with the equally complicated Running game.

Now they they will be catching Tennis balls for practice and getting all of the reps in practice...

Leach didn't pick Couch, or Kingsberry, They all did pretty well in their first year in the system. OU Passed for under 110 yards a game in 1998. Tech threw for less than 175 per game. Kingberry was recruited into a Run first system.

Quote:

---

In Leach's first year, his quarterback, Tim Couch, threw for 3,884 yards; the year after that, Couch, who lasted for only a few disappointing years in the N.F.L., threw for 4,275 yards. After Kentucky, Leach moved to Oklahoma for a single season, 1999. That year Oklahoma went from 101st to 8th in the country in offensive scoring. Its quarterback, Josh Heupel, passed for 3,850 yards that season, which was 1,700 more than any quarterback in Oklahoma football history had thrown for in a season.

---

Quote:

---

"There's two ways to make it more complex for the defense," Leach says. "One is to have a whole bunch of different plays, but that's no good because then the offense experiences as much complexity as the defense. Another is a small number of plays and run it out of lots of different formations." Leach prefers new formations. "That way, you don't have to teach a guy a new thing to do," he says. "You just have to teach him new places to stand."

---

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/04/m...very-deep.html

Is it guaranteed his system will work? It has for 18 years, with less talent.