lol. I won't go that far. He was horrid. But I completely believe that an average coach gets last year's squad 8 or 9 wins.
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The teams we lost to on the road usually lose 1 or less per year at home. UK is pretty much the only team that is the outlier and they had the best team in the last 50 years that was one of the most experienced teams in the SEC with mostly senior starters. If you compare what aTm has recruited over the last 5 years to what MSU has recruited, aTm is a lot more talented on paper but for some reason Moorhead is held to a higher standard than Jimbo. You have said yourself that you think Jimbo is one of the top coaches in the country so why is the expectations for him next year less than Moorhead's from this year?
So comparing their schedule to ours last year:
@Clemson, @UGA, and @LSU - We lost to @Bama, @LSU, and @UK. aTm schedule is harder but honestly how often do you win against a top 10 team on the road? aTm is more than likely getting 3 losses there just like we did this year.
Bama at home - we lost to UF at home. Bama is definitely the tougher game but UF ended up #7 at the end of the year. We have won that type of game a handful of times in our history.
So if aTm somehow loses to Auburn or MSU at home then I guess Jimbo has failed miserably and should be fired according to some people on this board.
At the time that we played them - #8 AU was a playoff contender and #5 LSU was a playoff contender. Now it didn't work out that way, but it is also true based on how "playoff contender" flows during the course of the season.
If UGA loses 2-3 would you still call them a contender (yes you would) - because they would have been in a legit position to make a run (as LSU or AU were mid-season last year).
As an aside - have you seen Clemson's schedule this fall? It may be one of the more ridiculously easy 12 games I've ever seen for a title contender. They could miss the playoff completely if we have a season with 3-4 undefeated teams and 1-3 teams with strong schedules and only 1 loss.
Most people saying 7-5 is the best case are basing that on Moorhead not being good. So if he gets to 7-5 (we will probably have six bad teams plus a UK that has taken a big step back at home, plus UT and Auburn who have supposedly recruited well enough to be good but could also implode), it won't be hypocritical for them to freak out about it.
That said, if we go 7-5, for most people it's going to depend on how we went 7-5 (just like this year, most people are more upset about how we went 8-5 than the actual record). If UT and Auburn are good next year, and we compete in every game except Bama and our offense generally looks competent except that we need a legit WR, and we go 7-5 by beating 6 bad teams plus UK, then I think people will be ok. Not thrilled, but ok. If UT and Auburn implode, and UK takes a major step back, and we scratch out seven wins with good defense and bad offense, and still manage to lose to two bad teams and not even compete against A&M, LSU, and Bama, people will (understandably) be freaking out about how bad a hire he might end up being.
I expect us to look pretty solid against the bad defenses on our schedule next year. I expect us to be smothered by Bama and probably LSU although I don't know what they have coming back. The question is going to be how we score against UT, Auburn, A&M, and UK.
You must be under 25 and not actually remember the Croom years.
With Croom, we probably would have won OOC plus Um and Ark with much lower offensive scoring, but A&M and Auburn probably end up looking like UK. Defense would have kept us in it until a completely inept offense resulted in a worn down defense that gave up some scores late. Might could have picked a game back up with luck as far as defensive scoring goes, but it would have taken some incredible luck to get to 8 wins with him coaching.
I don't care about the Heisman or championship talk. Every new coach does that. But he could have emphasized the long-term over the short-term, or at least hedged on some, and he didn't. Which is fine. But if you're going to do that, don't come back later and change your tone.
And the reality is, we won't be any closer to the 85 Bears or 72 Dolphins in terms of talent at least for a while. So if he's taking some kind of shot at our talent last year, what is his plan going forward? Is 8 wins our ceiling? If not, then don't even mention it. Just say we're going to build off last year and do better.
It may be true we weren't the most talented team in football history last year. But the fact is, it was an extremely talented roster relative to the history of Mississippi State. So unless he improves the recruiting leaps and bounds, he's basically admitting he won't do much better at State. That's why it's a crap quote.
Croom wouldn't have won @KSU. KSU ended up having one of the top defenses in the Big 12, not great but not a gimme. These entire Croom comparisons to Moorhead might as well compare Mullen to Saban. I don't know how we didn't win a National Title in 2014 so Mullen must suck.
Here is a game - guess 34's response to your post - I'll go with: "I never said it was intended for Guidry, yet simply it bounced off his chest. So technically, I'm still right!"
He knows he is making up stuff just to stir the pot, which I for some reason enjoy... He knows he is leaving out key information. In the games he is listing (which leaves out LSU) - Fitz threw the ball 134 times and completed 76 of them for a whopping 999 yds. (7 yds. per attempt).
Guys, some of you don't seem to understand how good our defense was. We may never see that again. We don't get many 5 star DT's like Simmons especially at the same time we have an NFL edge rusher, NFL LB's, and NFL DB's. And it was a veteran group coupled with a solid D-coordinator.
The Croom comment is not a reach. As I said all year, we could have run the T formation and won 9 games like my pee wee team did.
DT: Cox and Boyd vs Simmons and Thomas is a draw, but the depth behind them goes to '18.
DE: Eulls and Ferguson vs Sweat and Green... not even close to the same ballpark, and 18's backups are way better too.
LB: Wells and Wilson and Lawrence vs Gay and Thompson and Lewis... I think Gay and Thompson will be first 3 round picks and Lewis will get picked up by someone. So '18 has more talent imo
CB: Banks and Broomfield vs Dantzler and Peters and Cole/Landrews. '11 wins but not by much (Dantzler is a stud and the others were solid).
S: Whitley and Mitchell and Bonner vs Abram and McLaurin and Rayford. '18 wins each of these matchups if you go in order.
So I'd say '11 matches up to '18 at DT, LB, and CB, but has no clear advantage in any of them and has a MASSIVE talent deficit at DE. '18 had 3 first rounders, a DE taken late, and has at least 3 more starters that will get taken in the first 3 rounds this year... '11 had what, Cox and Mitchell get taken and then Boyd and Banks the year after that? There's clearly a ton more talent on the '18 team
Nonsense. There were only 7 teams I think who ran the ball a greater percentage of time than Miss. State last year. There is no amount of "adapting" to satisfy some of our idiot fans. RUN THE DANG BAWWWLLL, COACH!!!
Deal with facts instead of warped perception and see what the world looks like.
It isn't just runs most of us wanted... we wanted rb carries. Here's rb carry % for the last 2 years:
2018 - 243 rb runs/ 514 total team runs = .473
2017 - 377 rb runs / 634 total team runs = .595
In 2017, Aeris had 236 rushes... that's 7 less than all the RBs combined in 2018
It boils down to this : Fitz either wasn't comfortable making the read or just decided to keep the ball. Neither Moorhead or Mullen's offense has many direct hand offs to the RB. People bitching about the plays Moorhead ran, the exact same things could be said about our offense the last decade.
lol- seriously- nobody can really think this is true right???
We had 377 runs in 2017- do you really think Fitz read every one of those? Hayyyyyle no- there we alot of designed handoffs.
A good offensive coach gets the ball where he wants it and adjusts to his QB. Lane Kiffin is a great example. He coached Coker in 2015 and was successful. Then made a total switch with Hurts in 2016 as a true Freshman. Thats coaching. He adjusted to what he had. Their offense changed in those years.
Our coach refused to change our offense to fit the personnel. That is my complaint and what should worry the fanbase. Croom was the same way
I'm down with this.... I also think it's not mutually exclusive to what Tbone was sayin'....
Joe either overestimated the aptitude/IQ/talent of his team, or he's obstinate and/or dumb, himself.
Additionally, the 1999 defense (as a whole) would prison rape the 2018 version.
Designed or option these are the rushing numbers for our running backs the last 4 years. I think this is regular season only, since someone on here deemed bowl results don't matter.
In 2015 RBs ran for 875 yds on 191 attempts for a 4.58 avg and scored 3 TDs.
In 2016 RBs ran for 1221 yds on 245 attempts for a 4.99 avg and scored 6 TDs.
In 2017 RBs ran for 1677 yds on 350 attempts for a 4.70 avg and scored 9 TDs.
In 2018 RBs ran for 1576 yds on 253 attempts for a 6.2 avg and scored 9 TDs.
A hundred more hand-offs for a hundred more yards and the same number of TDs. Talk amongst yourselves.
I definitely liked the 1999 defense better.
My dream is to one day see a top flight MSU offense and MSU defense on the same team at the same time. Even MSU's very best teams I don't think can say that they had both. Maybe 1998 or 1980 were the closest to having both?
That's the thing - he did adapt.
At PSU, he had one of the best college RB of the past decade and ran his RBs -
'16 - 326 rb runs/540 total team runs = .603 for 2406 total rushing yards
'17 - 267 rb runs/451 total team runs = .592 for 2212 total rushing yards
Then he has the best running QB in SEC history and - I know this will be shocking - uses him basically as a top line running back.
Of course he adapted. It is our super genius fans who can't figure it out.
Just like they will bitch about Fitz carrying the BAWWWLLL 3 times from the 1 in the Outback Bowl, but nary a peep that on a critical 3rd & 2 in the 4th Qtr with about 4:00 minutes remaining it was Aries Williams not picking up the yardage. Selective memory.
He certainly would have been capable of losing that game, but our team this year was basically 2007 on steroids. Much better defense and better talent on offense, so it seems reasonably likely that we still would have pulled that game out, even if the score would have looked a lot different. Agree that comparing Croom to MOorhead is crazy, but our team was set up this year where 6 wins were pretty likely even with bad coaching.
I would agree that Croom might have won 6 games but it is just as likely that Mullen didn't win more than 8. There are plenty of examples of Mullen's offense shitting the bed against top 25 defenses on the road. This whole exercise of shitting on the current coaching staff is doing nothing but bring negativity into the program. There is plenty of time to show you are pissed off if Moorhead loses any OOC games or UM, Ark, or UK this year.
I think UT is a push, I think we will have the better team but it is on the road so that has a way of leveling things. Looking back, Moorhead won the toss up games or the games that were slight upsets in AU and aTm but lost the toss up games in UK and UF.
Oddly enough, if our defense was just top 25 (better than almost every single Mullen defense) and the offense just lost those 4 games 23-20 then most people are 17ing happy. Not many people expected our secondary to go from giving up big plays to being shut down (which was the difference in the improvement).